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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

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14 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The drought monitor only goes back to 2000 I believe. This drought is definitely getting pretty severe in the short term sense when it comes to vegetation and stream levels, but we're not in a long term one yet that really gets into stuff like groundwater/reservoir issues yet. A reversal of the dry pattern for a few weeks (or a tropical system strike over the whole area) would probably shore up a lot of the issues. If this general pattern remains into the fall and early winter than we could be dealing with a more long term drought. 

Most of the main river/stream gauges have top 5 low water records to go with their top crests. There's a couple gauges where their current level would be about 4th-5th on the top 5 but most of them aren't that low yet for a top (or I guess bottom) 5. The 1960s decade seems to have a lot of low water records over several waterways. It seems like that was a decade that had a good bit of drought. 

The most recent drought map is out and if you read the dialog for the NE they mention deficits of 4-8" in 90 days in New England pushing those areas to D2 so it all does not seem overly consistent to me.  

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5 minutes ago, canderson said:

That chart is horrifically bad. Not the data, the design. Yikes. 

I think the take away is that the West,  North and Central got worse.   South Central stayed terrible (average rain after being double digits down is not good) and much of the East, especially S/E,  piled it on.  LOL.

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A crisp 51.8 degrees here for me this morning.  A sure sign that summer is waning.

Another sign is that we are precisely half-way (length-of-day-wise) to the equinox.  We've lost 1 hour and 32 minutes since the solstice and have 13 hours and 31 minutes of daylight today.  We have one hour and 31 minutes left to go before equal day and night.

 

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49 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

A crisp 51.8 degrees here for me this morning.  A sure sign that summer is waning.

Another sign is that we are precisely half-way (length-of-day-wise) to the equinox.  We've lost 1 hour and 32 minutes since the solstice and have 13 hours and 31 minutes of daylight today.  We have one hour and 31 minutes left to go before equal day and night.

 

Wow, you were a full 10 degrees below me. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think the take away is that the West,  North and Central got worse.   South Central stayed terrible (average rain after being double digits down is not good) and much of the East, especially S/E,  piled it on.  LOL.

I'm lousy at reading things like that - must be because it's so bad like Canderson said. Isn't that map depicting that your area is above normal precipitation? 

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm lousy at reading things like that - must be because it's so bad like Canderson said. Isn't that map depicting that your area is above normal precipitation? 

Its saying 125% of normal the last 30 days.  Which means if we should have received 3" the last 30 days we got a little over that which sounds about right.   But does little to change the 8-10" deficit for the last 120 or so days.  We need way over normal to catch up.   So if we were 10" below normal coming into the 30 days and got 1/2" over normal we are now 9.5" below normal. 

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This focused on DC but it has some significance here also so I’ll copy it. There has been some discussion about QBO correlations and Nina. My findings don’t show much truth to that at least wrt snowfall. 
 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE I’ll post the h5 composites later when I have time but looking at the last 15 Nina’s going back all the way to 1984 I see absolutely no significant correlation between the QBO and snowfall in our area. 1996 skews things horribly on those plots. Truth is 4 of the 5 worst Nina snowfall years in DC were negative QBO.  1989/2001/2008/2012. The one awful positive qbo winter was 2017. On the other hand if you take out 1996 the 2 next best snowfall Nina years at DC we’re 1986 and 2000 both +QBO. Truth is other than 1996 Nina’s all are a range between totally god awful and average wrt snowfall. With the stj absent in Nina’s getting above avg snow is just VERY unlikely. But the QBO does not seem to have any statistically significant predicting value on differentiating between the really awful Nina snowfall years and the decent ones.

When I have time I will look at the enso profiles (East/West/basin wide Nina) and north pac SSTs to see if one of those is a better predictor if Nina outcomes. Hopefully not north pac sst as those look like hot garbage right now also. 

 

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44 minutes ago, paweather said:

My 2020-21 Winter Forecast is out, I've studied everything I could to do this:

 

 

You need to move the worst of winter west East about 50 miles.  :-)

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52 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Its saying 125% of normal the last 30 days.  Which means if we should have received 3" the last 30 days we got a little over that which sounds about right.   But does little to change the 8-10" deficit for the last 120 or so days.  We need way over normal to catch up.   So if we were 10" below normal coming into the 30 days and got 1/2" over normal we are now 9.5" below normal. 

Thanks. That's what I thought I was seeing, and I also misread your comments on the map. :) 

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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So was but I typed it wrong.  Ha.  East, move east.  LOL

lol 

regardless....I think we all approve of that map.

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So it looks to me like the EC lowered highs for next week.  Still hot but not record breaking by any stretch.  I did not see one 90 at MDT through the whole week at 1PM while, as one example, yesterday's 12Z run had MDT at 94 at 1PM on Tuesday while today it shows 88 at the same time.  

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28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Was that fuking map is 1st guess, 2nd guess, 3rd guess, 1st call, 2nd call, 3rd call, or what? 

I am still trying to figure out how the creator knows the polar vortex is going to park itself and not move this year. 

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8 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

@Wmsptwx American Airlines just announced they are dropping Williamsport from their routes.   I never even knew they flew there! 

Lol I have only ever flown out of MDT or Philly so not sure, but I’m sure a few people will be mad haha.

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4 hours ago, paweather said:

My 2020-21 Winter Forecast is out, I've studied everything I could to do this:

See the source image

 

I swear I saw this exact map about this time last year lol. Yup.. we got the worst of winter alright.

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14 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I swear I saw this exact map about this time last year lol. Yup.. we got the worst of winter alright.

someone sounds a bit snakebit.....

:P

 

We'd all love for you to drum up a good map for us (although good as useful, and looking good are two very different things).  

If we can get enso into mild la nina, how do you feel about it in our hoods?

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I know we was talking about winter....But how are these tropical depressions /Hurricanes going to effect us.The gulf is going to get pounded.

Had 51 for the low Thursday and 64 today. Looks like back to the 90's coming up next week.

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