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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

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I'd be willing to bet Isaias will not be a hurricane at the 5pm advisory as it certainly doesn't look like one currently. Satellite presentation is a mess this afternoon with warming convective tops pretty much routed off the center of circulation, which can be clearly seen emerging North Andros Island on the visible. It's very hard to make heads or tails of anything on the infrared imagery. This is definitely not a hurricane right now.

1119848311_ScreenShot2020-08-01at3_38_31PM.png.6c2d37592e12ae6e67609b9a5b0b6417.png788630411_ScreenShot2020-08-01at3_37_39PM.png.14eb308f6d4656a08542ce73ad28ae51.png

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The bullseye on that Canadian run looks to be very close to the new rain capital of PA at the home of @Voyager !

I like that Canadian run. If only....

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7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This might be a first for me....

I am posting weather model maps that do not involve snow!

Here is the 6z Euro for the tropical storm this week. The Euro tracks the low well inland into southern VA. Here is also the total precip through the end of this run at 90 hours.

B91825AB-C93B-4CAB-B478-37F97F26F4A6.png

266F3C5D-0B4F-4D00-926A-5C892809FEE6.png

Blizz if I am posting on August 1st you have to! 

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8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This might be a first for me....

I am posting weather model maps that do not involve snow!

Here is the 6z Euro for the tropical storm this week. The Euro tracks the low well inland into southern VA. Here is also the total precip through the end of this run at 90 hours.

 

 

I am happy not being in the bullseye 48 hours out.  The Euro is out of its wheel house time frame.  Its now-casting time.  I will be happy if it covers the mulch.  If it gets too close it will turn to all rain.  I have had mine its time for others to enjoy.  Why hasn't the NWS issued a WSW?  It could all change at 0Z. 

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am happy not being in the bullseye 48 hours out.  The Euro is out of its wheel house time frame.  Its now-casting time.  I will be happy if it covers the mulch.  If it gets too close it will turn to all rain.  I have had mine its time for others to enjoy.  Why hasn't the NWS issued a WSW?  It could all change at 0Z. 

Lol! Awesome....only 30 days until Met Fall begins!

 

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5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Storm after storm after storm...might say that it's been training time for me tonight. Gauge is at 2.16" and it is raining harder than at any point.

You are probably on a pace to have 100$ percent more qpf this summer vs. parched.  I would guess you are what 20-30" since early May?  

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7 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Storm after storm after storm...might say that it's been training time for me tonight. Gauge is at 2.16" and it is raining harder than at any point.

Wow. I had .7”. 

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58 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Flooding rains per Euro.

fa2d56af4aab291fc205cd745f9c0a6c.jpg


.

I do think the Training Time, Daxx's and Voyagers of the forum could be in for some flood warnings. 

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10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I do think the Training Time, Daxx's and Voyagers of the forum could be in for some flood warnings. 

Yes, perhaps. Each model has it's heaviest axis of qpf in slightly different locations, but all are in the same general ballpark.

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3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

You are probably on a pace to have 100$ percent more qpf this summer vs. parched.  I would guess you are what 20-30" since early May?  

 

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Wow. I had .7”. 

 

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

I had .3".

 

Final tally in the bucket was 2.48". Saw a  report of 3"+ between Elizabethtown and Palmyra.

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Man if this coming winter presents even half the missed precip opportunities this summer has had around here I might end up in the Panic Room before February lol. 

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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

 

Final tally in the bucket was 2.48". Saw a  report of 3"+ between Elizabethtown and Palmyra.

 

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

According to CTP there was nearly 4" west of Lebanon to my NE.

And if Isaias dumps another 2-4 those areas are in real trouble...

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4 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Man if this coming winter presents even half the missed precip opportunities this summer has had around here I might end up in the Panic Room before February lol. 

You, myself and @Cashtown_Coop have the potential to completely miss out.  Being on the outside of a Tropical Storm means drier than normal.  I believe KHGR is currently at their larger ever deficit for this late in the year coming in close to 13" below "normal" for 2020.  

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

You, myself and @Cashtown_Coop have the potential to completely miss out.  Being on the outside of a Tropical Storm means drier than normal.  I believe KHGR is currently at their larger ever deficit for this late in the year coming in close to 13" below "normal" for 2020.  

I’m rooting for .5 to 1”.  That’s all I need at a time for golf course.   Received .40” last night which was a perfect amount.   2-4” causes trouble for me 

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2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I’m rooting for .5 to 1”.  That’s all I need at a time for golf course.   Received .40” last night which was a perfect amount.   2-4” causes trouble for me 

At some point we need either constant 2-4" weeks or a soaking 5-10" long term rain.  Its too late for me to worry about grass anymore.  The summer destroyed all my work and I am going to have to pay to start over.  I am worried about all my friends wells though.  Water levels are back down to their late July lows. 

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