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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

At some point we need either constant 2-4" weeks or a soaking 5-10" long term rain.  Its too late for me to worry about grass anymore.  The summer destroyed all my work and I am going to have to pay to start over.  I am worried about all my friends wells though.  Water levels are back down to their late July lows. 

With all the snow we are going to get this winter, they will be in great shape.  Let the glacier slowly melt and recharge wells and the water table.   

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3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

With all the snow we are going to get this winter, they will be in great shape.  Let the glacier slowly melt and recharge wells and the water table.   

Do you share what you’re obviously growing?

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7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Do you share what you’re obviously growing?

That's why his grass is dying.  He has routed all his irrigation efforts to the 7 leafed plants.  LOL KIDDING!

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5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

There might be a special batch above hole 12 in the woods :blink:

If you see a guy in University of Texas stuff on the course, he is just admiring your skills.

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16 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Best green i mean greens around 

Such a good, clean cut! Rolls well, too... ;)

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

You, myself and @Cashtown_Coop have the potential to completely miss out.  Being on the outside of a Tropical Storm means drier than normal.  I believe KHGR is currently at their larger ever deficit for this late in the year coming in close to 13" below "normal" for 2020.  

I definitely don't think you or Cashtown are going to miss out on this. The primary issue is starting to settle on position of the heavy rainfall axis as well as overall extent into central PA as models are starting to dial in the track for the most part. The whole Sus Valley should be pretty well into this for a solid rainfall. The only question there for me is how much of the actual core of the center gets into SC/SE PA, that's going to determine how far back those excessive 2-4+ totals get. The central counties where I'm at that encompass the JST/AOO/UNV corridor are going to depend on early development of deform precip as the system interacts with the pressing front. 12z Euro has this and thus gets this area into some solid but not overly excessive rainfall while at the same time having a really tight area of excessive rains, maybe catching Philly at best. GFS/GEFS is tighter with getting stuff back into the central counties, but more expansive with the excessive rainfall into SE PA east of the river in the case of the new 18z GFS. Falls off very rapidly west of the river with the main push. 12z Euro op had more of an expansive preceding precip shield. Early look at the 3k NAM gets the shield back to JST/AOO/UNV. 

Setting the farther west boundaries of the QPF axis are Canadian and SREF ensembles, aiming the axis more squarely at MDT and having much heavier rainfall back into the central. A look at all the major ensemble means show the biggest bust potential will be in the true central. For the record, I'm leaning the Euro look right now. These are 24hr precipitation total means. 

GEFS

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-precip_24hr_inch-6585600.thumb.png.8ee31633db4c2d9af8ad19e5bf1cb10a.png

EURO EPS

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-precip_24hr_inch-6585600.thumb.png.c7b537aa11663d88c0db12814eda2fdb.pngcmc-ensemble-all-avg-ma-precip_24hr_inch-6585600.thumb.png.7064e7f254e8412ce97176fb8b5ff090.pngsref-all-mean-ma-precip_24hr_inch-6607200.thumb.png.42a27d82025fb363fb9c868a0cb08022.png

 

 

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35 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I definitely don't think you or Cashtown are going to miss out on this. The primary issue is starting to settle on position of the heavy rainfall axis as well as overall extent into central PA as models are starting to dial in the track for the most part. The whole Sus Valley should be pretty well into this for a solid rainfall. The only question there for me is how much of the actual core of the center gets into SC/SE PA, that's going to determine how far back those excessive 2-4+ totals get. The central counties where I'm at that encompass the JST/AOO/UNV corridor are going to depend on early development of deform precip as the system interacts with the pressing front. 12z Euro has this and thus gets this area into some solid but not overly excessive rainfall while at the same time having a really tight area of excessive rains, maybe catching Philly at best. GFS/GEFS is tighter with getting stuff back into the central counties, but more expansive with the excessive rainfall into SE PA east of the river in the case of the new 18z GFS. Falls off very rapidly west of the river with the main push. 12z Euro op had more of an expansive preceding precip shield. Early look at the 3k NAM gets the shield back to JST/AOO/UNV. 

Setting the farther west boundaries of the QPF axis are Canadian and SREF ensembles, aiming the axis more squarely at MDT and having much heavier rainfall back into the central. A look at all the major ensemble means show the biggest bust potential will be in the true central. For the record, I'm leaning the Euro look right now. These are 24hr precipitation total means. 

GEFS

 

EURO EPS

 

 

 

I was looking at trends.  To me getting 1" would be missing out on the big rains.  

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Good Morning!

So is Isaias going to take a slight more easterly track or stay the course? Still not a hurricane this morning.

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A nice 63 degree morning here.  About 1/4" of rain for the weekend.  Hoping I get fringed enough to break 1".    HRRR drops 2-3" on me before 7PM tonight. 

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Here is the 0z Euro.
It takes the storm right up I-95 to Philly.
The 2nd map is the total precip through Wednesday am.
 
C7BF3A66-1E36-4FF3-8CAD-0A219FC067E3.thumb.png.6b64a20384eff96fc33037be24587c66.png
AF953853-D556-47E0-AED5-85BBCB954051.thumb.png.6ca83e04f5467c171104b41044284672.png

We would get in on some of those gusty winds with that track.


.

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15 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Well played.  Above par comment 

HRRR continues to insist you and I are getting 1-3" before the system even comes ashore.  

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30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

HRRR continues to insist you and I are getting 1-3" before the system even comes ashore.  

Yeah look down in NC.  That moisture loves running the ridges.  There will be a second qpf max west of main slug 

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2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Yeah look down in NC.  That moisture loves running the ridges.  There will be a second qpf max west of main slug 

Yep, totally agree.  

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If this thing wasn't going to be trucking, you'd have to really worry about flooding. You'll still have some localized flash flooding in the usual low spots but it'll be in and our so quickly that isn't going to be a widespread concern I don't think. Always a good thing with these tropical systems. 

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19 minutes ago, canderson said:

If this thing wasn't going to be trucking, you'd have to really worry about flooding. You'll still have some localized flash flooding in the usual low spots but it'll be in and our so quickly that isn't going to be a widespread concern I don't think. Always a good thing with these tropical systems. 

Yep, usually drought busters and not Hazel like catastrophes. 

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Time for my single Horst post for the upcoming snowstorm...I mean tropical system. 

He's calling for 2.5 - 5" of rain in Lancaster with 15-25 mph winds.

Of real note, and the main purpose of this post, he shared some numbers for the month of July:

  • 23 days of 90+ temperatures (new record, previous record was 21 days in 1955)
  • New record average temperature for the month
  • And the most fascinating thing to me - NO daily temperature records were broken. In fact, while we had a record number of 90 degree days, the record is largely due to the anomalously warm overnight lows. 
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