Itstrainingtime Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, canderson said: It's decidedly nicer out this morning than it has in seemingly a month and a half. DP is down 10 degrees from this time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, paweather said: 10-1 Ratios? 10-1 but thinking we have sun angle issues so only on the grass and car tops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Just now, Bubbler86 said: 10-1 but thinking we have sun angle issues so only on the grass and car tops. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 10-1 but thinking we have sun angle issues so only on the grass and car tops. 3 minutes ago, paweather said: LOL. No way. Storm track, being an inland runner is far too west for at least paweather and me not to have significant mixing issues. Bubbler might be far enough west to hold off most of the taint, but WAA aloft waits for no man... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: No way. Storm track, being an inland runner is far too west for at least paweather and me not to have significant mixing issues. Bubbler might be far enough west to hold off most of the taint, but WAA aloft waits for no man... Love it and to think I am excited to track a tropical system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Love it and to think I am excited to track a tropical system. The CAD is also a bit weak coming into the storm. Notice the red lined area showing some signature of it running down the spine of the apps but it is stale and going to be washed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The CAD is also a bit weak coming into the storm. Notice the red lined area showing some signature of it running down the spine of the apps but it is stale and going to be washed out. Where is that strong high to the north when you need it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 And yet somehow in that setup the FV3 would depict 2' of snow. Anyway...I see Tropical Storm Warnings have now been extended all the way up to the M/D line. It's fun to have something to talk about other than 97 with a 30% chance of an isolated (not over Rouzerville) thunderstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Some things never change... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: And yet somehow in that setup the FV3 would depict 2' of snow. Anyway...I see Tropical Storm Warnings have now been extended all the way up to the M/D line. It's fun to have something to talk about other than 97 with a 30% chance of an isolated (not over Rouzerville) thunderstorm. I totally agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: And yet somehow in that setup the FV3 would depict 2' of snow. Anyway...I see Tropical Storm Warnings have now been extended all the way up to the M/D line. It's fun to have something to talk about other than 97 with a 30% chance of an isolated (not over Rouzerville) thunderstorm. I did not mention it all weekend. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 First and final call. This call will be focusing on the eastern half of the state: Voyager: 4-6" HIstoric Maytown: 3-5" Daxx 3-5" Nut 3-5" paweather5 3-5" Paweather 2-4" Paweather1 2-4" Paweather2 2-4" Pawatch 2-4" wmsptwx 2-4" Blizz 2-4" Carlisle 2-4" Cashtown 2-4" (Much of it front end WAA) Bubbler86 2-4" (Much of it front end WAA) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 How stinking tight this gradient is on the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I could be very wrong, but I disagree with this. The winds are nearly universally consolidated about 75 miles east of the storm center, very minimal wind to the west. I don't see this become extro-tropical or whatever it's called to ramp up winds on the west side to reach that strong this inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, canderson said: I could be very wrong, but I disagree with this. The winds are nearly universally consolidated about 75 miles east of the storm center, very minimal wind to the west. I don't see this become extro-tropical or whatever it's called to ramp up winds on the west side to reach that strong this inland. Correct east side is always the worst. We’re praying for a deviation west up here, we need some good rains in the worst way. Grass mostly dead, streams dried up and everything extremely dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, canderson said: I could be very wrong, but I disagree with this. The winds are nearly universally consolidated about 75 miles east of the storm center, very minimal wind to the west. I don't see this become extro-tropical or whatever it's called to ramp up winds on the west side to reach that strong this inland. It would be a fairly big surprise to see areas like CTP have sustained 40+ winds albeit there are only in that under 20% group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Correct east side is always the worst. We’re praying for a deviation west up here, we need some good rains in the worst way. Grass mostly dead, streams dried up and everything extremely dry. It could be wrong but the HRRR (if we cannot trust in the HRRR under 24 hours on a tropical event when can we trust it?) contines to advertise the opportunity for fairly significant rains well in advance of the storm. This includes basically the whole Eastern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Looks like we get back into the 90s Sunday onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Looks like we get back into the 90s Sunday onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 16 minutes ago, paweather said: I will be enjoying my 50's this week. Potential upper 40's in Bradford! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 12Z Euro QPF totals. Deepens the system to 988 as it nears our locale. Tropical, Extra-Trop, whatever. Jersey Shore gets almost no fresh water but gusts in the 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: First and final call. This call will be focusing on the eastern half of the state: Voyager: 4-6" HIstoric Maytown: 3-5" Daxx 3-5" Nut 3-5" paweather5 3-5" Paweather 2-4" Paweather1 2-4" Paweather2 2-4" Pawatch 2-4" wmsptwx 2-4" Blizz 2-4" Carlisle 2-4" Cashtown 2-4" (Much of it front end WAA) Bubbler86 2-4" (Much of it front end WAA) Biggest snowfall of 2020 if it verifies... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I will be enjoying my 50's this week. Potential upper 40's in Bradford! Yep need to enjoy the rest of the week for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 36 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z Euro QPF totals. Deepens the system to 988 as it nears our locale. Tropical, Extra-Trop, whatever. Jersey Shore gets almost no fresh water but gusts in the 80's. That is just insane the Jersey Shore missing the rain but gets the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 Got up to 89 here today making it the hottest day since last Monday. Down to 84 now as the clouds thicken. I just looked at the Euro its not all that hot through the next 10 days. Could be hoping for too much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 3, 2020 Author Share Posted August 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Got up to 89 here today making it the hottest day since last Monday. Down to 84 now as the clouds thicken. How about that? 89 here as well...though it's still 89 and perhaps one final push to 90 is still possible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: How about that? 89 here as well...though it's still 89 and perhaps one final push to 90 is still possible here. Your last 90 for awhile hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 HRRR now has several lollipops of what appear to be double digit amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 3, 2020 Share Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: HRRR now has several lollipops of what appear to be double digit amounts. That could be some serious flooding to the east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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