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Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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34 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

 

And there you have it folks, Ole Joe just put the KOD on this one, Next.

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

And there you have it folks, Ole Joe just put the KOD on this one, Next.

Someone needs to warn Galveston. Like, now.

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Haha oh man I happily forgot Big Joe even existed. I remember 16 year old me tracking hurricanes and I thought that dude was the GOAT of forecasting tropical systems....ohh how much I've learned. :rolleyes:

But anyways, when should I start boarding up in Hampton? 

gtnA3EU.thumb.png.099ff000d68c4b2d757ef7e2d127f0d2.png

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1 hour ago, KoalaBeer said:

Haha oh man I happily forgot Big Joe even existed. I remember 16 year old me tracking hurricanes and I thought that dude was the GOAT of forecasting tropical systems....ohh how much I've learned. :rolleyes:

But anyways, when should I start boarding up in Hampton? 

gtnA3EU.thumb.png.099ff000d68c4b2d757ef7e2d127f0d2.png

Wow. That's what, 3-6 members out of 51 that track offshore up here?

Inland runner?

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Still skeptical on the more W track.  The trough that evolves over the ern U.S. is not digging and is positively tilted.  That's not how you typically bring a TC to SNE.  Basically it is just riding a channel in the mean flow, not drawn in by backing flow.  One thing I have noticed empirically over time, is that these things tend to recurve out sharper than any model forecast in a synoptic set up like this.  You have to find a good reason why it will *not* recurve out sharper than forecast.

Here's the pattern that brought Bob up.  It was focused, digging s/w trof that gave SNE decent +RA/+TSRA only 24 hr after Bob departed.  And the next image is the 00z GFS for 96 hr.  It's not the same.  In Bob's case, you had a dumbbelling effect.
081921.png

 

GFSUS_500_avort_096.png

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6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol why is most of RI and ECT under water?

It's the "after" satellite image

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GFS now kisses FL too. We may have to watch that trend. If it does scrape FL and then head into Land near SC/NC...not sure how much is left once she gets here.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

GFS now kisses FL too. We may have to watch that trend. If it does scrape FL and then head into Land near SC/NC...not sure how much is left once she gets here.

I think it’s going to trend like Matthew and stay off shore here, but will be close. Looks like some shear my interact with it near FL 

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57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well.. it’s coming. This is the one 

Yeah, the SE coast really needs to pay attention.

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34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS now kisses FL too. We may have to watch that trend. If it does scrape FL and then head into Land near SC/NC...not sure how much is left once she gets here.

Euro wind max 

download (2).png

download (3).png

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Big boy coming right into heart of New England 

EPS all bury this inland SC not a big boy

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