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Quincy

General severe weather discussion

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

First moderate risk day in quite a long time... since mid June?  Wind driven... and it's a small mod risk 

ETA: never seen a hatched wind on a 15 percent before... on the new Day 2

I've noticed that SPC has included hatching on 15% wind risks, starting earlier this year, when there is potential for a major damaging wind event but there is a degree of uncertainty as to whether said threat will actually materialize (such as capping, etc.).

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PDS severe thunderstorm watch issued for portions of MN, ND, and SD. >95%/80% severe wind probabilities. 

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northern and central Minnesota
     Southeast North Dakota
     Northern South Dakota

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 535
     PM until 100 AM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging winds expected with scattered significant
       gusts to 90 mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter possible
     A couple tornadoes possible

   SUMMARY...An intense linear-type complex of storms is expected to
   evolve into a derecho this evening and produce
   widespread/significant damaging winds as it accelerates
   east-southeastward across the region. Isolated large hail is also
   possible, and a tornado risk cannot be ruled out, particularly near
   the warm front.   

   ...Guyer

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Seems to be some potential in central and northern MN tomorrow provided we see recovery after tonight's MCS. Certainly an upper percentile strength LLJ in place for the time of year, although deep layer shear magnitude/orientation could be a bit better.

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97mph wind gust reported in the MCS in SD tonight

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1119 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE BUNKER            44.25N 101.06W
08/27/2020  M97 MPH          STANLEY            SD   PUBLIC

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION. RADAR ESTIMATED
            TIME AND APPROXIMATE LOCATION.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1112 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E HAYES               44.37N 101.00W
08/27/2020  M104 MPH         STANLEY            SD   PUBLIC

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

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First tornado warning for Missouri for this Saturday evening episode.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
620 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...  
  
* UNTIL 645 PM CST.  
      
* AT 620 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER SENECA, OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAXTER SPRINGS,  
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  NEOSHO...                         SENECA...  
  GRANBY...                         DIAMOND...  
  WENTWORTH...                      RITCHEY...  
  RACINE...                          

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With high helicity in the tor watch area....700...these storms are going to spin as they move east.  Key to whether or not they produce may be moisture and low level lapse rates.

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