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Quincy

General severe weather discussion

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3 minutes ago, Chinook said:

We've had a couple of tornado warnings east of Pueblo CO that have been for confirmed tornadoes tonight.

The setup tomorrow is a bit similar with a bulge-type feature leading to a locally enhanced area of low-level shear. Wonder if it’s a repeat, but will keep that talk to the other thread.  

I bailed on the Montana chase idea today. They did have a few transient supercells, but didn’t want to get too far out of position for tomorrow or play around with the complications that come with out of state travelers there. Even though I barely had any contact with anything there, outside of my shoes on the ground. 

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This month is just about locked in for the worst May ever. Far cry from how things looked even 10 days ago. Tomorrow/Saturday could be decent but its not gonna save the month. 

It really is fascinating considering that the second half of May looked good as late as May 13th.

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11 hours ago, hlcater said:

This month is just about locked in for the worst May ever. Far cry from how things looked even 10 days ago. Tomorrow/Saturday could be decent but its not gonna save the month. 

It really is fascinating considering that the second half of May looked good as late as May 13th.

May has been consistently mediocre the past several years for whatever reason. Makes one wonder if it's permanent?

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17 hours ago, hlcater said:

This month is just about locked in for the worst May ever. Far cry from how things looked even 10 days ago. Tomorrow/Saturday could be decent but its not gonna save the month. 

It really is fascinating considering that the second half of May looked good as late as May 13th.

I went through and counted the filtered tornado reports on the spc website and I believe there are only 51 tornado reports nation wide so far this month. Has to be on pace for some kind of record? Can anyone chime in?

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35 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I went through and counted the filtered tornado reports on the spc website and I believe there are only 51 tornado reports nation wide so far this month. Has to be on pace for some kind of record? Can anyone chime in?

I looked around at SPC and NCDC's websites but wasn't able to find a historical count of US tornadoes by month. I'm sure it exists somewhere though. 

Given the current and upcoming pattern I wouldn't be surprised if we finish under 100 this month. 

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35 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I went through and counted the filtered tornado reports on the spc website and I believe there are only 51 tornado reports nation wide so far this month. Has to be on pace for some kind of record? Can anyone chime in?

The last month of May in the U.S. with less than 100 tornadoes was 1970 with 88. 
http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/1970/5/map

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Man, I thought no May could be duller than 2018 in the Midwest/Plains. At least that had Tescott for those who were able to get out for it.

2006 and 2009 were pretty bad but they seemed like anomalies in that decade.

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Today features an extraordinarily anomalous setup (at least I can’t exactly recall seeing anything like it) across large parts of Washington and Oregon, where an ENH risk for severe wind gusts exists. 

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If the Interior NW were to stop our May moderate risk drought the 2nd to last day before the end of the month, it would be fitting for 2020.

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL
   OR TO CENTRAL/EASTERN WA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms, offering destructive
   winds and hail, are most likely between 1 to 10 PM PDT over parts of
   the interior Pacific Northwest, east of the Cascades.

   ...Interior Northwest...
   Primary change is to increase tornado probabilities across parts of
   central OR. Categorical outlook is largely unchanged. Consideration
   was given for an upgrade to Moderate Risk in the western portion of
   the Columbia Basin. Concerns over the spatial extent of the severe
   wind coverage preclude further upgrading at this time.

   Thunderstorms will likely intensify after 19Z in a zone of strong
   deep lift across south-central OR, ahead of an ejecting shortwave
   trough. Here, robust diabatic heating is underway amid a plume of
   low to mid 50s surface dew points. This will support a narrow
   corridor of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE reaching 750-1500 J/kg from
   central to northeast OR. Greater buoyancy is expected to develop
   towards 00Z farther downstream in eastern WA to northwest MT where
   mean-mixing ratios are higher.

   Surface-based effective-inflow parcels will exist on the west side
   of the surface front, where low-level winds will be veering with
   height, hodographs strongly curved, and deep shear relatively
   maximized. With low-level vorticity also maximized in the frontal
   zone, multiple supercells are expected. Though the environment
   generally favors higher-based convection, initial supercells should
   have the best potential for large hail and a couple tornadoes
   between about 21-23Z. As the supercells spread rapidly
   north-northeast, at peak boundary-layer heating over the Columbia
   Basin, upscale growth into a forward-propagating MCS appears
   probable. This will increase the potential for severe wind gusts,
   some of which may be significant, given the favorable combination of
   steep lapse rates and moderately large buoyancy. Overall setup
   appears likely to yield a swath of severe wind in the Columbia Basin
   from north-central OR across parts of central and eastern WA before
   the MCS moves into British Columbia.

 

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0-3km EHI is as high as 10 along the OR/WA border.  I have never seen values that high in the Pacific Northwest before, but keep in mind that LCL heights are very high.  Storm south of (and moving towards) Bend, OR has lower LCL heights.

 

Screen Shot 2020-05-30 at 3.20.39 PM.png

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I would check out May 31, 1997 if you're looking for a severe weather analog.

 

Of course there's the April 5, 1972 event as well, which produced the deadliest tornado in Western U.S. history.

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Last night, an MCS in Missouri was moving westward, and a squall line in Kansas was moving eastward. They met up, and some storms formed a bridge between them.

Coming up later today and Saturday, the SPC has an enhanced risk outlook for South Dakota on both days.

et3R6PT.jpg

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Not sure where to post this but the supercell NW of Rapid City ND looks beastly. It's currently warned for tennis ball sized hail. 

Polish_20200604_192723822.png

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This was interesting to read in the MCD... bolded mine... talks about heat bursts later tonight -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0825.html

 Mesoscale Discussion 0825
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

   Areas affected...western Oklahoma...far eastern Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253...

   Valid 042337Z - 050130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A cluster of storms is beginning to congeal into a line
   across western Oklahoma. These storms will continue moving southeast
   with the potential for damaging winds and large hail.

   DISCUSSION...Storms with a history of severe wind including reports
   of 70 and 80 mph and large hail (1 inch) are moving southeast across
   western Oklahoma. Storms are beginning to form a more coherent line
   with some evidence of an increasing rear inflow jet developing
   behind the center of the line. Surface temperatures of 95-105 F and
   a deep, well mixed boundary layer with surface dewpoint depressions
   of 35-50 F are likely to contribute to efficient mixing of strong to
   damaging wind gusts to the surface. If the line continues to
   organize, the threat for damaging winds will increase in the short
   term. Large hail will also remain possible. These storms will begin
   to weaken after sunset, but the severe threat will remain for the
   next 2-4 hours. As these storms begin to collapse later tonight,
   strong winds could emanate outward from the cluster with heat bursts
   possible.
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Chased the initial, easternmost supercell in South Dakota today. Managed to avoid the hail and didn’t have issues with the reservations, as the storm curved right and stayed over open road networks. 

 

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Chased a lone supercell in a general thunderstorm area today. CAMs were inconsistent, but the environment easily favored a supercell. Started near Lusk, WY and ended up near Chadron, NE. 

 

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50 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I am a little surprised that they upgraded to moderate risk today (wind, hail only)

H9NOQhK.gif

The discussion sounded almost like they expect an event similar to that one in August, 1994 that Gary England wrote about in his book (especially the line about "wind-driven hail"). Same general area, too of western KS/OK border region.

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This squall line has already produced several severe wind reports in the last hour, and intensify to produce many more severe wind reports.

OczZJet.jpg

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We have a tornado watch in North Dakota for today.  Meanwhile, across the Canadian border in Manitoba it looks like there is a storm with significant rotation:

 

 

AF27AD81-4C60-4BCF-A256-7EF8C00B9B8E.png

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Dont see this type of warning every day... who wants to chase this storm... :yikes:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NEC087-145-130130-
/O.NEW.KGLD.SV.W.0142.200713T0100Z-200713T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Goodland KS
800 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central Red Willow County in southwestern Nebraska...
  Eastern Hitchcock County in southwestern Nebraska...

* Until 830 PM CDT.

* At 800 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast
  of McCook, moving east at 60 mph.

  This is a very dangerous storm.

  HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and
           businesses will have substantial roof and window damage.
           Expect extensive tree damage and power outages.

* Locations impacted include...
  McCook, Indianola, Danbury and Lebanon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4021 10020 4000 10019 4000 10022 4014 10087
      4025 10052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 281DEG 53KT 4015 10057

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...90MPH

$$

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First moderate risk day in quite a long time... since mid June?  Wind driven... and it's a small mod risk 

ETA: never seen a hatched wind on a 15 percent before... on the new Day 2

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