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1 minute ago, schoeppeya said:

The highest hospitalization rate I could find is .86 percent for 85+.... so I think I’m going to go out on a limb and say there’s not a whole lot of room for error on the downside 

Less than a percent hospitalization rate for 85+? I’m curious where you saw that.

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2 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

That really is an unbelievable stat. That’s a sickening overestimation and so incredibly misinformed. The highest hospitalization rate I could find is .86 percent for 85+.... so I think I’m going to go out on a limb and say there’s not a whole lot of room for error on the downside. 

Guarantee that more than 0.86% of 85+ year olds with covid have been hospitalized.  

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Guarantee that more than 0.86% of 85+ year olds with covid have been hospitalized.  

Oh, I think I know what he means now. He means 0.86% of all 85+ year olds have been hospitalized with covid, regardless of whether or not they had covid. Which I believe, though it’s also largely immaterial.

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5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Oh, I think I know what he means now. He means 0.86% of all 85+ year olds have been hospitalized with covid, regardless of whether or not they had covid. Which I believe, though it’s also largely immaterial.

That is the number I saw, it was a quick search. Agreed it’s not the best number to use. 
 

Any clue what the overall actually is for confirmed cases?

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7 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Oh, I think I know what he means now. He means 0.86% of all 85+ year olds have been hospitalized with covid, regardless of whether or not they had covid. Which I believe, though it’s also largely immaterial.

Well, that would make more sense.  The initial post about people over/under estimating hospitalization rates was unclear as it did not say whether it was only talking about covid patients or every man and woman walking around in the United States.

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Just now, schoeppeya said:

That is the number I saw, it was a quick search. Agreed it’s not the best number to use. 
 

Any clue what the overall actually is for confirmed cases?

I honestly have no idea, but I’m sure it’s in the single digits for the population as a whole. The mere idea that anyone would think it’s over 50% is ludicrous and terrifying to me.

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It seems a 21 year old medical student at University of Cincinnati died a day after taking the J&J vaccine.

It is currently being investigated, but so far there's been no direct evidence of the vaccine being the cause of death.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fox19.com/2021/04/16/university-cincinnati-students-death-after-jj-vaccine-under-investigation/%3foutputType=amp

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10 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Oh, I think I know what he means now. He means 0.86% of all 85+ year olds have been hospitalized with covid, regardless of whether or not they had covid. Which I believe, though it’s also largely immaterial.

Wow that seems like a very low number. I was thinking maybe like 40-50% of 85+ year olds would be hospitalized with covid.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Well, that would make more sense.  The initial post about people over/under estimating hospitalization rates was unclear as it did not say whether it was only talking about covid patients or every man and woman walking around in the United States.

I don’t always agree with @schoeppeya but I at least know he tries to argue in good faith and give him the benefit of the doubt when trying to figure out what he’s talking about.

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1 minute ago, Snownado said:

Wow that seems like a very low number. I was thinking maybe like 40-50% of 85+ year olds would be hospitalized with covid.

Again, probably true, but I think he’s saying of all 85+ year olds, 0.86% have gotten covid and been hospitalized for it.

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16 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I don’t always agree with @schoeppeya but I at least know he tries to argue in good faith and give him the benefit of the doubt when trying to figure out what he’s talking about.

I believe the number I pulled was overall. Probably not the best to use. 
 

It’s still hard to believe that much of the left is that uninformed. I guess even though we all don’t agree in here we are part of our own echo chamber that is (primarily) using data to debate points. But, maybe this helps highlight why I get so frustrated with the messaging surrounding covid and some of the messaging in this thread that insists on worst case scenario outcomes. 

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3 hours ago, schoeppeya said:

That is the number I saw, it was a quick search. Agreed it’s not the best number to use. 
 

Any clue what the overall actually is for confirmed cases?

This is the estimate for all infections. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

4.1 million for 83 million infected. Approximately 2 percent. 

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Ok so had to do a little digging for this and just use dates that I could find matching hospitalizations and total case numbers for. As of November 18, there had been 906,849 Covid hospitalizations in the U.S. compared to a confirmed 11.5 million cases for a hospitalization rate of 7.8%. However, dozens of studies suggest an undercount of 3-4x total cases at this time, which would support an overall hospitalization rate of 2.6% to 1.9%. I'd like to be able to break that down by age but am having a hard time finding the raw data. 

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Lol yeah. They do an estimate for age groups. 65+ is about 20 percent. 

Not surprising since they make up close to 50% of hospitalizations.... its scary for that age group.

I would have guessed 1-2% hospitalization rate overall so definitely fits my bias of underestimating it. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I believe this is our plateau week. Next week starts the permanent down turn. By end of May pretty much anyone that wants a shot will have gotten one, only group that we're still waiting on is the 17 and under crowd.

lol.

Some people just can't help themselves. 

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It look like the surge in Michigan is also impacting production at one of Stellantis' assembly plants outside of Detroit.

Not only did they fall short of their production goals, but according to a report in Bloomberg, 630 workers either tested positive for COVID-19 or are under quarantine.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/chrysler/2021/04/16/ram-truck-plant-sterling-heights-covid-19-surge-production/7255441002/

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Fauci stated when cases get to under 10k a day things can go back to complete normalcy.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, pressed by a Republican lawmaker Thursday over when Americans will "get their liberties back," gave his clearest explanation yet as to when COVID-19 restrictions could be safely lifted, saying the U.S. must get its infection rate under 10,000 new cases a day.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fauci-clashes-gop-lawmaker-covid-restrictions-eased/story?id=77097089

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What do you mean?

There are still places within the US in the midst of a surge. Plus, the scientific community still doesn't know what effects (if any) emerging variants will have going forward.

https://scitechdaily.com/new-covid-variants-have-changed-the-game-and-vaccines-will-not-be-enough/

So say "next week starts the permanent turn down" is premature and presumptuous 

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Just now, Powerball said:

There are still places within the US in the midst of a surge. Plus, the scientific community still doesn't know what effects (if any) emerging variants will have going forward.

https://scitechdaily.com/new-covid-variants-have-changed-the-game-and-vaccines-will-not-be-enough/

So say "next week starts the permanent turn down" is premature presumptuous 

Just being a little optimistic. I'm hopeful as I expected a plateau in mid/late April and a general steady decline into summer.

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