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11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Treatment at the beginning of the pandemic was terrible, deaths are declining while cases increase. The virus is not nearly as deadly as once thought. Regeneron helps reduce viral load in patients. 

https://www.biospace.com/article/covid-19-by-the-numbers-mortality-rates-in-u-s-decrease-despite-uptick-in-cases/

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/regeneron-says-its-covid-19-antibody-treatment-cut-medical-visits-n1245197

The most recent data (from the week ending October 10) showed excess deaths only 0 and 2.9 percent higher than historic data.

A look at the data shows that excess deaths peaked the week ending April 11, with 35.6% to 40.6% more deaths than usual, then began a downward trajectory through June 20, when the incidence of COVID-19 rose in Sunbelt states after declining in the North and Northeast.

From the article about Regeneron's treatment:

"Last month, the company released early data from the trial showing the treatment reduced viral levels and improved symptoms in non-hospitalized Covid-19 patients. The new data confirm the initial findings, the company said."

.........

When it is released, won't it have to be administered in a hospital setting?  I don't think you can pop a pill.

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24 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

While this is certainly true compared to March and April. From about mid-summer on the calculated CFR using a 3 week time lag between cases and deaths has been steady at 1.5-1.8%. Worth noting that right now we are about 3 weeks after cases really started to rise again.

The October 10th excess death data is now 4.9 to 9 percent. You got to be careful about using the last few weeks as its quite incomplete. 

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23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

From the article about Regeneron's treatment:

"Last month, the company released early data from the trial showing the treatment reduced viral levels and improved symptoms in non-hospitalized Covid-19 patients. The new data confirm the initial findings, the company said."

.........

When it is released, won't it have to be administered in a hospital setting?  I don't think you can pop a pill.

My friend in California works on covid floor stated that it is only being used in Beverly Hills west hollywood hospital, but if you're wealthy enough you can probably get your hands on it. Their hospital is too poor for it. But looks like its only available in a hospital setting at this moment. 

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28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My friend in California works on covid floor stated that it is only being used in Beverly Hills west hollywood hospital, but if you're wealthy enough you can probably get your hands on it. Their hospital is too poor for it. But looks like its only available in a hospital setting at this moment. 

Kinda in a pickle when the antibody treatments appear to show benefit in the prehospitalization setting. It's going to take some logistical creativity to pick which pre hospitalization patients will receive these sort of treatments.

These treatments will probably help eventually but definitely are not poised to put a dent in the morbidity and mortality of this fall/winter wave, unfortunately.

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13 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Kinda in a pickle when the antibody treatments appear to show benefit in the prehospitalization setting. It's going to take some logistical creativity to pick which pre hospitalization patients will receive these sort of treatments.

These treatments will probably help eventually but definitely are not poised to put a dent in the morbidity and mortality of this fall/winter wave, unfortunately.

I'd have to imagine they'd identify the most at risk people and give this therapy to people in outpatient after they develop symptoms?

All the stuff with antivirals and antibodies therapy has been consistently "may work, if given early" but how do you accomplish that? 

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

He said the main therapeutic they are using is Remdesevir. It lowers the number of days in the hospital by approximately 50%. 

Remdesivir at the moment only really has shown benefit for the hospital system in reducing length of stay. Theres no good data on reduced mortality for individual patients. Hopefully they can manage more early course studies.

The steroids and care has been the main reason for the decrease in mortality in the hospital. 

I dont think overall mortality has decreased by, let's say more than 40%? Since the beginning. 

In the second wave, the median age of hospitalization was younger which also helped to reduce mortality from the first wave. 

This wave already looked worse than the summer one...our baseline is higher than June and Rt (1.12) hasn't begun to go down yet even as cases, hospitalizations, and deaths surge. 

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One important thing for mental health is for people to realize there will be a time when we are past this pandemic.  It may not be for another 6 months to a year but there will be a time we can regain a sense of normalcy.  Even if it means getting a vaccine every six months it'll be worth it.   Especially as we get into these winter months with things like seasonal depression and family stress it's important to keep a hopeful attitude about the future.

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2 minutes ago, madwx said:

One important thing for mental health is for people to realize there will be a time when we are past this pandemic.  It may not be for another 6 months to a year but there will be a time we can regain a sense of normalcy.  Even if it means getting a vaccine every six months it'll be worth it.   Especially as we get into these winter months with things like seasonal depression and family stress it's important to keep a hopeful attitude about the future.

This.  Always good to look for the light at the end of the tunnel.  Granted it's tough especially if you've lost your job or are struggling financially.

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9 minutes ago, madwx said:

One important thing for mental health is for people to realize there will be a time when we are past this pandemic.  It may not be for another 6 months to a year but there will be a time we can regain a sense of normalcy.  Even if it means getting a vaccine every six months it'll be worth it.   Especially as we get into these winter months with things like seasonal depression and family stress it's important to keep a hopeful attitude about the future.

I agree 100 percent. Hard to do going into this winter admittedly for me. They appear to be getting closer to a vaccine so their is hope no doubt 

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11 minutes ago, madwx said:

One important thing for mental health is for people to realize there will be a time when we are past this pandemic.  It may not be for another 6 months to a year but there will be a time we can regain a sense of normalcy.  Even if it means getting a vaccine every six months it'll be worth it.   Especially as we get into these winter months with things like seasonal depression and family stress it's important to keep a hopeful attitude about the future.

My good friends best friend committed suicide 3 days ago. 3 kids and a wife, no warning signs. This pandemic is definitely affecting people. 

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25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My good friends best friend committed suicide 3 days ago. 3 kids and a wife, no warning signs. This pandemic is definitely affecting people. 

Sorry to hear that. 

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27 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

We could hit 90k today

Maybe.  Should be in the mid to upper 80,000s at least as several states have yet to report and some states do multiple data dumps per day (i.e. California)

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38 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe.  Should be in the mid to upper 80,000s at least as several states have yet to report and some states do multiple data dumps per day (i.e. California)

We are at 80k with 3 hours to go of reporting 

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6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

We are at 80k with 3 hours to go of reporting 

If tomorrow follows the trend of other Fridays, it will be well over 90k tomorrow. 

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Staring down the barrel of 100k cases.  If it doesn't happen tomorrow, it will be by late next week.  

10 bucks its Tuesday to really add insult to injury.

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Staring down the barrel of 100k cases.  If it doesn't happen tomorrow, it will be by late next week.  

Last  four Fridays: 52k, 61k, 71k, 81k. Not quite a steep as slope as the summer spike. Big difference are we are already above the summer spike peak numbers now, it is much more spread out throughout the entire country, and we are heading toward winter which is more conductive to viral transmission due to more people gathering indoors, colder/drier air in general etc.

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Said it before and I know it is a bit macabre, but I think we need to spike this as much as possible prior to Thanksgiving.  Scare as many people as possible into not holding gatherings, especially larger ones.  

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IHME model updated.  Even with "universal" mask use (which is considered 95%), it has between 1000-1300 deaths per day from November through January.  And we are nowhere near 95% on a nationwide level.  

This is not to bash mask use whatsoever.  It just shows what we're up against.

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