dan11295 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I have been comparing the CDC excess mortality data/reported Covid deaths from death certificates for states vs reported numbers on Worldometer. Some interesting findings: Some states, mostly in the plains and mid-south (OK/MO/IA/NE/KY/AL) along with OH/WI have more reported Covid deaths (some a fair bit more) from certificates per CDC than the state numbers, even though the CDC numbers should be more time-delayed. Most states have excess mortality of about ~0.03% above reported Covid mortality. For most of the states listed above this percentage is fair bit higher ~0.06%. e.g. Excess mortality is actually about equal for WI and PA despite the 0.04% difference in the state Covid numbers/per capita IMHO this suggests some under counting is going in in these states. Conversely some states actually have LESS excess mortality, MA/CT/RI in particular, Some of this may be due to high LTC facility spread in the spring in these areas compared to general population. i.e.LTC residents who died of Covid might have died of other reasons by now. This would tend to lower the excess mortality over time in this instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 The CDC estimates the actual number of people infected (including asymptomatic cases) at 90mil through Nov 30th (doesn't include Decembers numbers) That’s almost 30% of the country. This is a relatively new update from the CDC (12/23). More here https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html That would put the fatality rate at .4%. CDC estimate of influenza death rate for most recent year is .057% (22,000 deaths / 38 million estimated cases). So, if the 90mill estimate is accurate, COVID is 7 times deadlier than Influenza 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 California is in bad shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Numbers were bad today, relatively speaking, and we had many states not report. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 12/30/2020 at 11:28 AM, RyanDe680 said: And let's stop the seasonal flu bullshit. The flu does not cause blood clots or heart attacks. neither does COVID19.. but you know what does? Nursing home neglect/ isolation. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 18 minutes ago, 40westwx said: neither does COVID19.. but you know what does? Nursing home neglect/ isolation. Smh. America is full of idiots. We will probably be the last country to come out of this pandemic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 12/30/2020 at 11:28 AM, RyanDe680 said: And let's stop the seasonal flu bullshit. The flu does not cause blood clots or heart attacks. 39 minutes ago, 40westwx said: neither does COVID19.. but you know what does? Nursing home neglect/ isolation. Tell that to my co-worker's wife, who is a nurse practitioner and and otherwise healthy, active middle-aged woman who has developed blood clots due to Covid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, 40westwx said: neither does COVID19.. but you know what does? Nursing home neglect/ isolation. Gah. Another scientist 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 hours ago, 40westwx said: neither does COVID19.. but you know what does? Nursing home neglect/ isolation. This kind of science denial has no place on this forum. Vascular effects of Covid infection including blood clotting are becoming more and more established in scientific literature. Association of heart attacks with blood clots is very well known. Luke Letlow had surgery associated with a blood clot before he had a heart attack. FYI influenza can also lead to blood clots also due to inflammation response (which is likely a primary cause of clotting with Covid as well). https://vascular.org/news-advocacy/jvs-report-swine-flu-and-respiratory-distress-linked-blood-clots 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 Whining "science denial" when neither of you know what your talking about is quaint.this statement coming from you ironic.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The numbers today are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: The numbers today are all over the place. Holidays are messing with the numbers. Will take another week until the normal reporting gets back on track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Holidays are messing with the numbers. Will take another week until the normal reporting gets back on track. This is really unfortunate because we really need to know where we stand right now especially with vaccinations going so slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The CDC estimates the actual number of people infected (including asymptomatic cases) at 90mil through Nov 30th (doesn't include Decembers numbers) That’s almost 30% of the country. This is a relatively new update from the CDC (12/23). More here https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html That would put the fatality rate at .4%. CDC estimate of influenza death rate for most recent year is .057% (22,000 deaths / 38 million estimated cases). So, if the 90mill estimate is accurate, COVID is 7 times deadlier than Influenza Good post. 7x deadlier than the flu is pretty wild, but with how fast it goes to pneumonia it doesn’t shock me. They’ve really gotta get the vaccines going now. As I’ve posted before, herd immunity is the only way to actually beat an epidemic which has happened throughout human history. With the virus constantly mutating and this new more contagious strain, it’s obvious we have to stomp this out as quickly as possible. I’m glad to see Pres-Elect Biden showing more urgency than the current admin, hope it happens when he actually takes office 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 hours ago, Angrysummons said: Whining "science denial" when neither of you know what your talking about is quaint. Pot. Kettle. Black. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Don't engage 40westwx he is a clear idiot troll who should be banned as he spews his bullshit across the subforums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 8:08 AM, RyanDe680 said: Gah. Another scientist qanon + 4chan = 40westwx 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Sad to share the mayor of town I live in passed away from covid only week and a half after positive test. Great guy, he was early 60s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Despite some improving metrics, still having a pretty high positivity rate here in IN. I wonder if one reason for this is that the surveillance testing at the universities would have largely stopped in recent weeks, which lowers the denominator in the ratio of positive tests/tests performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 My wife got tested. It took 5 days to get the results. Ended up being the flu. Sounds like most places in Ohio are 3-4 days behind for getting results out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I had to be tested last week due to multiple exposures (negative). Got my results in 36 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 UK going to a level 5 lockdown due to new strain outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 There is going to be a huge backlog on deaths. Will probably see some very ugly numbers because of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Smh Something has to be done about misinformation being spread on social media. It has become almost a national security threat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Something has to be done about misinformation being spread on social media. It has become almost a national security threat Man there’s always been wackos. Look at instances like the Oklahoma City Bombing, it was inspired by conspiracy theories stemming from Ruby Ridge and Waco. What I find fascinating is the discrepancy in medical opinions on a personal level. I have nurse friends who talk about this as the plague, and then my neighbor who is a neurologist with a degree from Vanderbilt says this whole thing is “extremely overblown” and that it’s nothing more than bronchitis to anyone under 60 that does not have a compromised immune system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 - In hospital: 128,210 (+2,666) - In ICU: 23,435 (+204). Similar to last week, big jump following lower reporting over the holiday weekend. Important thing here is hospitalizations are still increasing, despite the apparent peak in cases back on Dec. 17-18, ~18 days ago (and before the holidays were effecting reporting). This is different that the summer when hospital peak occurred 5-7 days after peak in cases. Nationwide positive rate is also continuing to rise from 11% before Christmas to 13.5% now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 hours ago, nwohweather said: Man there’s always been wackos. Look at instances like the Oklahoma City Bombing, it was inspired by conspiracy theories stemming from Ruby Ridge and Waco. What I find fascinating is the discrepancy in medical opinions on a personal level. I have nurse friends who talk about this as the plague, and then my neighbor who is a neurologist with a degree from Vanderbilt says this whole thing is “extremely overblown” and that it’s nothing more than bronchitis to anyone under 60 that does not have a compromised immune system There's a couple of those folk around this board as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The people who have a constant pathological need to downplay this virus are like the trolls we get toward the NWS when an alerted potential severe weather/tornado outbreak doesn't destroy their neighborhood. It's almost like people need to see a Contagion movie like scenario play out to feel validated. If a certain prominent politician and his most ardent supporters hadn't made it a sign of weakness to want take safety precautions against this virus, I feel confident in saying it would never have been as politicized. Europe's (and most notably recently the UK's) experience with covid probably shows there would've been no easy way out with this, but I doubt we would've done worse. The fact of the matter is this virus is the perfect storm precisely * because * most people are okay. It leads to too much focus on individual mortality risk, which especially the younger you get, is low, BUT still much higher than for other highly contagious infectious diseases. This has always been about collective/community risk vs individual risk and it's sad that so many people don't see that. The hospitalization metrics really tell you all you need to know about how serious this is before the horribly sad death numbers because these numbers are for covid only and obviously can go on to lessen the quality of care someone else may receive for a different ailment. Would anyone ever drive if their chances of a car accident were as high as a bad non-fatal outcome from this virus, like hospitalization and/or long hauler type case or prolonged pulmonary or cardiovascular effects? Most have never said to live life cowering in fear, but to take safety steps not only lowers your own risk and your family's risk, it also can help lessen the downstream effects. My whole house (my wife, 2 young kids and I) had covid back in late October-early November and yes, silver lining is our risk is much lower for now and likely significantly lower moving forward, but I never would have willingly chose the experience we went through even though it meant that it was safer to see my family for the holidays. (As an aside, I think it's quite possible our 14 year old dog died partially because of covid too.) 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 hours ago, nwohweather said: Man there’s always been wackos. Look at instances like the Oklahoma City Bombing, it was inspired by conspiracy theories stemming from Ruby Ridge and Waco. What I find fascinating is the discrepancy in medical opinions on a personal level. I have nurse friends who talk about this as the plague, and then my neighbor who is a neurologist with a degree from Vanderbilt says this whole thing is “extremely overblown” and that it’s nothing more than bronchitis to anyone under 60 that does not have a compromised immune system I doubt a neurologist is dealing with this virus first-hand, particularly if the practice they’re with isn’t attached to an ER. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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