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2020 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

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Tornado Watch out:

ww0505_radar_big.gif.b7470ddf51a6b37b4fe605f10c773dd2.gif

Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 505
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   205 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Eastern Iowa
     Northern Illinois
     Southeast Wisconsin
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until
     800 PM CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible

   SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms will race
   northeastward this afternoon across the watch area, producing
   corridors of locally damaging winds.  A few embedded tornadoes are
   also possible along the line.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 60 miles southwest of Marseilles IL to
   45 miles northwest of Milwaukee WI. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

 

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I think the line will hang on in respectable fashion this far east.  As mentioned, we will lose some instability, but ample cloudcover and fairly well mixed low levels should keep the temperature drop rather modest in the few hours after sunset.

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31 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Close call for Chicago. Def a higher risk just W/NW given the timing. We will lose some instability after sunset but this could be offset a bit as shear increases owing to the LLJ accelerating to 50-60KT. 

Timing looks more favorable as time goes on, with it looking to come through the heart of the metro by around 5pm.

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The overall threat is still fairly isolated to some of the better cores.

The broad-brush warnings are deceiving.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
254 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTH CENTRAL WHITESIDE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 330 PM CST.  
  
* AT 254 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR COLETA, OR NEAR MORRISON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45  
  MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  COLETA AROUND 300 PM CST.  
  MILLEDGEVILLE AROUND 305 PM CST.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HITT,  
MALVERN, FRANKLIN CORNERS, WHITE PIGEON AND CARROLL COUNTY  
FAIRGROUNDS.  

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Nice bowing segment headed towards Rockford. 

Only gusting to 36kt at RFD.

Too stable to get anything to the surface, other than isolated in nature.


.
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Only gusting to 36kt at RFD.

Too stable to get anything to the surface, other than isolated in nature.


.

Came in with a late 72mph gust. That corridor produced.


.
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73mph winds near Winnebago IL.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
341 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

ILC007-037-103-141-201-102230-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-201110T2230Z/
Lee IL-Ogle IL-De Kalb IL-Winnebago IL-Boone IL-
341 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST
FOR EASTERN LEE...EASTERN OGLE...DE KALB...WINNEBAGO AND BOONE
COUNTIES...

At 340 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Durand to Rockford to Amboy, moving northeast at
65 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 73 mph gust observed in Winnebago
         at 332 PM CST.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Rockford, DeKalb, Belvidere, Loves Park, Machesney Park, Sycamore,
Roscoe, Rochelle, South Beloit, Rockton, Poplar Grove, Genoa,
Shabbona, Rockford Airport, Candlewick Lake, Cortland, Cherry Valley,
Winnebago, Davis Junction and Pecatonica.

 

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The whole metro will end up with a nice hit from the QLCS.

Still a question in how widespread severe will actually be...But it seems that over the past hour or so, it has been more widespread instead of isolated.

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Solid for sure here but not as violent as the derecho afternoon.   Guessing we had 60 mph give or take.

 

0454 PM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW SAINT FRANCIS 42.96N 87.90W   11/10/2020 M79 MPH MILWAUKEE WI ASOS     MITCHELL AIRPORT ASOS REPORTED 69 KNOT WIND   GUST.  

 

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Quality line.

 

Non-stop lightning/thunder, and gusted to about 60mph.

G66MPH Hanover Park.

Guess I underestimated a bit.

Legit.

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