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Dr. Dews

March 2020 disc/obs

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There might be more than one chance in the early April period....that is a beast of a block.

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Still thinking early next week is a northern mid Atlantic,  extreme southern New England event. I actually favor Long Island on south for best dynamics. Blocking is quite significant around that timeframe. Better than 50% chance it ends up a mostly sunny day up here...

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16 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It is weird how wildlife comes and goes in cycles.  
Lots of hawks, owls, fishers, foxes.    Chipmunks are hard to find lately.  Rabbits ebb and flow.  I have never seen a bobcat but my wife and daughter saw two in our yard around a year ago. 
coyotes used to be pretty routine but rare here now it seems. 
 

we had a bear rip off a light fixture off the back of our house a week or so ago trying to get to a bird feeder. 

We get serenaded every year by at least one coyote family - pups singing high-end soprano in May, descending to near the adults' alto by September.  Last June they were close enough that we could hear their footsteps rustling the leaves.

Looks like things could get interesting here Sunday-Monday.  Steve said "fir flattener" but I hope not.  Had one of those 19 years ago in late March - 16" paste that left Christmas trees scattered about the ground.  Maybe a quarter of the fir - most abundant tree on our woodlot - had their tops snapped off.

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38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wish we got this a few weeks ago like I had hoped. Need one bowling ball to approach normal.

I really need the mid atlantic to get some snow.

Ray, the last event you show 4.5", did you take you final measurement before the mix or when precip. ended? just curious ...

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wish we got this a few weeks ago like I had hoped. Need one bowling ball to approach normal.

I really need the mid atlantic to get some snow.

I highly doubt the Mid Atlantic sees anything else but who knows

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14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I highly doubt the Mid Atlantic sees anything else but who knows

Are we here in interior CT still in the game for some snow chances? It seems the pattern may favor something coming up in the next week or 2 ( and I know its a stretch with where we are in the time of year ). 

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18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I highly doubt the Mid Atlantic sees anything else but who knows

The higher terrain wouldn't surprise me, but that's a pretty potent block.

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33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I highly doubt the Mid Atlantic sees anything else but who knows

We have reached the time of the year where in order to get a snowstorm anywhere south of New England you would need either A - A highly anomalous, record arctic outbreak/CAD in place (we don’t have that) or B - A storm to absolutely bomb on the benchmark with very heavy precip rates and very strong UVVs to dynamically cool the column and “create” its own cold air from above. Other than that, you now have climo, a September equivalent sun angle and length of day working overtime against you....

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Just speaking to the operational Euro's 00z 03/26/2020 solution ... I thought the block looked less... D-7-10 clearly shows that collapsing into the west Atlantic basin perennial ridge...BUT, there is a better homage to a +PNAP and cold loading into SE Canada, too ...so, perhaps either way.  The GGEM was also looking rather betrayed with the scale-degree of NAO too... heh.

The other thing I'm thinking, even for the Euro ...all these guidance' are going to prove again that they suffer sun-normalization at a hemispheric scale ... can't be avoided given the current state of tech art in modeling and the fact that it's after the Equinox. 

The modulation in the physics is an 'acceleration' of sort, albeit subtle... it is a stalker to cold solutions.   I have seen countless D 9 deep 500 mb solutions at this time of year, that look like an assumption of a deeper surface evolution would be fine. But what ends up happening is strong mid level anomaly with weaker pressure responses underneath... kind of grapple showers in the hills and cool rains showers under pan-cake shallow toppers.  What happens is the baroclinicity gets normalized by punishing irradiance in the days leading. Not sure why the models don't seem to handle this kind of "synergistic" reduction in the barclinicity in spring so well, but even here, ...that deep trough the Euro engineers ends up with a broad, but less deep low comparatively... That's sort of a hint some of this is happening- 

That all said...we've had blizzards in early April... not discounting that climo either :)  ... It's really like everything, it's a processes of dwindling probabilities for returns at this time of year...and if something does happen in early April, it just means that the anomaly was sufficient to offset seasonal forcing -

 

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Nice view of the remaining snow cover right now.

We are still covered but it's starting to go quick.  That 6" has held on pretty well for time of year all things considered.

Probably disappears in the sunny spots today though.  It is blindingly bright outside.  Hard to even look outside without sunglasses ha.

SnowCover_March26.jpg.6443ab9bf5a1f1ca07fd6d707ee3816e.jpg

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We'll probably be back to the pre-storm 10" by this evening, but that's near-glacier in composition with 5"+ LE.  Melting the 0.83" from the early week event was easy.

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Tomorrow is a downslope dandy day....  That's got super-adiabatic surface T's written all over it.. Prolly is full sun, light wind 62 F right to the coast.

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Tomorrow is a downslope dandy day....  That's got super-adiabatic surface T's written all over it.. Prolly is full sun, light wind 62 F right to the coast.

Will you lay out on your stomach and tan the nape and upper back?

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We have reached the time of the year where in order to get a snowstorm anywhere south of New England you would need either A - A highly anomalous, record arctic outbreak/CAD in place (we don’t have that) or B - A storm to absolutely bomb on the benchmark with very heavy precip rates and very strong UVVs to dynamically cool the column and “create” its own cold air from above. Other than that, you now have climo, a September equivalent sun angle and length of day working overtime against you....

Euro is showing signs of this for next week, although I feel this is way more a threat for New England than south of New England because ingredient A is missing

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I got the jack jack jack, he's got the jack. Lol 

IMG_20200326_170132.jpg

Slide that 100 mi or so SW and give NYC a change of scenery.

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Good, Keep it south, Going to be getting the boat out to go fishing to get away from this madness.

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