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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

If there is one, the NAM will nail it. Back in 14, the Euro was spitting out 20” totals , and every one was giddy, then about 12 hours out, people said, watch out, the NAM is showing a warm nose, and there will be a lot of sleet! I got 1” of sleet

Hmm. In another thread I asked what time our hopes usually get crushed and you said “yesterday”.

On topic: Durham county schools closed tomorrow per WRAL. Wake starts 3 hours late.

Relurks

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I’ll be running away from any winter weather tomorrow. 10:30 meeting in Charlotte, then have to be in Wilmington by 4/5....y’all have fun

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2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

NAM is warmer it appears so far through 18 and also less QPF. This could be a precursor to a big bust for most of NC. Ouch. Someone will get some snow though. 

Funny, all of the analysis I have seen so far say it is colder

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1 minute ago, ragtop50 said:

Funny, all of the analysis I have seen so far say it is colder

It is warmer at the start but stays about the same overall, which is impressive. The QPF is going down down baby, yo street.........nvm.

 

Likely will full go to the global models with snow totals, which is about where most METs have it. Shocker that the experts might have gotten this one right (sarcasm).

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3km NAM still has the warm nose for my backyard. Also has .25 qpf falling in my backyard by 10am, RAP and HRR is bone dry until noon. :blink:

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Snow map reflects the changes. I knew when the sref was drier the Nam wouldn't be as good. 

snku_acc.us_ma (32).png

Yea, looks like amounts are settling down to more realistic levels compared to what we saw from the NAM earlier.

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

HI Res Nam even drier for western sections. Leeside shadow showing up again 

snku_acc.us_ma (33).png

Is it still snowing in eNC/swVA after this? those totals look pretty low over there.

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5 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Yea, looks like amounts are settling down to more realistic levels compared to what we saw from the NAM earlier.

I see timestamp is  2020-02-21 03z which is about 10 pm tomorrow night.  Is the precip over then or is it still ongoing?

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1 minute ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Is it still snowing in eNC/swVA after this? those totals look pretty low over there.

Yes 

snku_acc.us_ma (34).png

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NAM is cutting totals, but props to it for possibly having the right solution over several top models. I will no longer question the validity of it going forward. It is a model that cannot simply be tossed to the side. It seems to finally be coming into line with the QPF of the other models, but it was right about snow chances it appears.

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

SREF snow mean was 3.6 in Hickory now its 2.2

In Asheville it was 4.2 now less than 3

That's a punch in the gut... definitely not the way we wanted to trend...

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If anything there was more snow on the 3k NAM at 00z than at 18z. That's reassuring for me and makes me think it's just the 12k coming back to earth rather than the start of some dramatic warming or drying up in the models.

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