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PaulyFromPlattsburgh

Major Winter Storm 2/6-2/7 OBS

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3 minutes ago, Polarbear said:

I’d be tempted to try the 9 run... tho I think you mentioned rt 41 and that wouldn’t be my road of choice in the dark and a snow storm 

Appreciate the response.
 

Yeah I may go 81 to 20 and cut straight west into the teeth for the very end of my ride. I’ve kept my hotel room in case I am tired and need a few hour reset. 
 

a conundrum indeed...

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15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I kNew this was coming since they always mirror each other.. Global Canadian should look good to lol

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_26.png

Just like I said lol

It's getting towards nowcasting time anyway..

Hopefully for CNY sake the Canadians are onto something..

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.png

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Just like I said lol

It's getting towards nowcasting time anyway..

Hopefully for CNY sake the Canadians are onto something..

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.png

969??

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Last night's ukmet had it at 968mb in the same location, euro was 972mb..

Impressive pressures....

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10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Pretty much nowcasting time

Static map

That looks west to me. I think the taint line for a while will be just east of buffalo in the Genesee Valley for a while...looks like all snow after 4pm Niagara frontier...possibly heavy overnight before better dynamics shift east.

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32 minutes ago, Polarbear said:

I’d be tempted to try the 9 run... tho I think you mentioned rt 41 and that wouldn’t be my road of choice in the dark and a snow storm 

I'm making my run up the Hudson valley tomorrow afternoon/evening, then over to the western Dacks.  Hopefully its trailing off by then.  Worried about an icing section right about Albany rush hour.  

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Nice dry hole on GFS for Wolfie. That's some next level trolling by GooFuS. ;)

I'm actually just in the"pink" like most of Oswego county lol I live in NW Altmar/Richland..

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12Z Model Evaluation with Latest Model Preferences and Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Full latitude trough impacting the Central/Eastern U.S...
...Embedded vigorous shortwave trough lifting northeast...
...Consolidating lows from the TN Valley to the Northeast...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: Non-GFS blend
Confidence: Above average

 

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:
12Z Model Evaluation with Latest Model Preferences and Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Full latitude trough impacting the Central/Eastern U.S...
...Embedded vigorous shortwave trough lifting northeast...
...Consolidating lows from the TN Valley to the Northeast...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: Non-GFS blend
Confidence: Above average

 

Ways to say gfs sucks without saying gfs sucks. 

  • Haha 3

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4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Now is when i would expect KBUF to pull the WSW trigger. 

They'll wait for the ecmwf and for the normal 4 pm package id think. I think Monroe to Oswego county is a given. Erie and Niagara is still more on the fence. 

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