• Member Statistics

    15,777
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
PaulyFromPlattsburgh

Major Winter Storm 2/6-2/7 OBS

Recommended Posts

21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah, the updated clown map this morning shows 6" but P&C has 2"-4" lol

I think CNY is in a good spot personally.. Plenty of evidence of a more easterly track with the heaviest snow from 81 east... Even the father west tracks of the Nam products nail this area..

I think 6-10" for most of CNY is a reasonable call. Banding areas probably 12-15". Where it taints 4-8".  There's good model consensus. Not sure what that AFD was talking about regarding that.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

EPS. goes to show you gradient patterns can sometimes work

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_2.png

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_2.png

It's all about the HP in Canada...if it sits in place we score...but like so many times this year they retreated to the east or north leaving us with modified air and rain. Funny thing is looking out a week or so and can see a very similar opportunity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

received_591597361388009.jpeg

Wow that’s a solid 30-36 inches across much of northern Dacks and north western VT. It really wants to hone that CCB band over that area and have it “train” across the same area! The ECM has been very consistent with that specific area getting the goods

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So I have two choices. 
 

1). Don’t drink at my client dinner event in NJ tonight and drive home from roughly 9-1AM after a 5 hour energy (keep in mind I get up to workout at 4:30 and did so this AM)
 

2). Grab a few hours of sleep and set the alarm to drive home to Skaneateles between say 3-7AM. 
 

what say ye my fellow trusted weather brethren?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kuchera occasionally works well in perfect deformation scenarios under or near the 700 mb low in well developed rapidly deepening systems. It wont work where much of your lift is waa/isentropic upglide in the 850-700 zone like it is over northern ny. It seems like map/ratio deficiencies have to be pointed out every storm.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Kuchera occasionally works well in perfect deformation scenarios under or near the 700 mb low in well developed rapidly deepening systems. It wont work where much of your lift is waa/isentropic upglide in the 850-700 zone like it is over northern ny. It seems like map/ratio deficiencies have to be pointed out every storm.

No offense but the second round is not at all WAA or isentropic upglide. This first batch was. In fact we have some solid deformation banding in this set up as mentioned by Burlington NWS. I will not be using the 10:1 but will be using Kuchera for this rapidly deepening system . NWS Burlington As of 325 AM EST Thursday...The aforementioned frontogenetic band will be slow to slide eastward on Friday as the area of deformation remains parallel to the mean flow. This means that the area of heaviest snowfall will be slow to move eastward. Snowfall will quickly pile up across northern New York and northern Vermont from late morning through mid afternoon with the 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenesis continuing to strengthen through the early afternoon hours. What`s impressive about this event is that we have a coupling between`s impressive about this event is that we have a coupling between the 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenesis which has been shown in the past to produce some of our stronger snowfall rates. When you couple this lift with an anomalously moist air mass (modified Gulf of Mexico air), you get the making for a rather impressive snow event. Snow ratios initially will be close to 10:1 but as we begin to bleed in some arctic air, we will see snow ratios approach 15:1 Friday afternoon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Each run comes in warmer. Believe the trends. The taint line is always further NW by 30-40 miles. Once temps crash we all see some backend. 
The track was great. Yesterday. I’m worried the track is too far NW for a lot of us now.We will see. It’s a fun one to track. Aged me 5 years. Lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Moisture is streaming off of the Gulf of Mexico.  Warnings (flash flood, severe thunderstorm) all over Alabama and Georgia this morning

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

No offense but the second round is not at all WAA or isentropic upglide. This first batch was. In fact we have some solid deformation banding in this set up as mentioned by Burlington NWS. I will not be using the 10:1 but will be using Kuchera for this rapidly deepening system . NWS Burlington What`s impressive about this event is that we have a coupling between the 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenesis which has been shown in the past to produce some of our stronger snowfall rates. When you couple this lift with an anomalously moist air mass (modified Gulf of Mexico air), you get the making for a rather impressive snow event. Snow ratios initially will be close to 10:1 but as we begin to bleed in some arctic air, we will see snow ratios approach 15:1 Friday afternoon.

Look at the ratios that the kuchera map is showing. It's like 20:1 up there man...

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-total_snow_10to1-1228000.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

 

Divide amounts by 3.  No way I’m getting 20 inches.

Another modelology axiom...stop looking at 6 and 18Z runs.  Often GIGO and def TMI.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Each run comes in warmer. Believe the trends. The taint line is always further NW by 30-40 miles. Once temps crash we all see some backend. 
The track was great. Yesterday. I’m worried the track is too far NW for a lot of us now.We will see. It’s a fun one to track. Aged me 5 years. Lol

Why are you worried in Rochester?  There was always going to be taint tonight before the temperature crash.  6Z models are still showing the heaviest snow just to my East.  If anything last night’s event was an over achiever. I got 4 inches when the forecast was 1-3.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Syrmax said:

Another modelology axiom...stop looking at 6 and 18Z runs.  Often GIGO and def TMI.

That's old school before huge amounts of non- balloon data assimilation. No measurable difference nowadays though the belief is still very prevalent in the community. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CNY_WX said:

Why are you worried in Rochester?  There was always going to be taint tonight before the temperature crash.  6Z models are still showing the heaviest snow just to my East.  If anything last night’s event was an over achiever. I got 4 inches when the forecast was 1-3.

I’m in adk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You actually end up doing yourself a disservice by throwing at 06 and 18z runs. Because there is a measurable difference in skill between, let's say, a t+42 model prog and a t+48 model prog. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.