Syrmax Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah, the updated clown map this morning shows 6" but P&C has 2"-4" lol I think CNY is in a good spot personally.. Plenty of evidence of a more easterly track with the heaviest snow from 81 east... Even the father west tracks of the Nam products nail this area.. I think 6-10" for most of CNY is a reasonable call. Banding areas probably 12-15". Where it taints 4-8". There's good model consensus. Not sure what that AFD was talking about regarding that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 12"+ props Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 This is why I don't really view the HRRR as a good model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 The RAP was that far west as well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 EPS. goes to show you gradient patterns can sometimes work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: EPS. goes to show you gradient patterns can sometimes work It's all about the HP in Canada...if it sits in place we score...but like so many times this year they retreated to the east or north leaving us with modified air and rain. Funny thing is looking out a week or so and can see a very similar opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Wow that’s a solid 30-36 inches across much of northern Dacks and north western VT. It really wants to hone that CCB band over that area and have it “train” across the same area! The ECM has been very consistent with that specific area getting the goods 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Popping in from the baring winter wasteland known as Harrisburg. Hoping you guys get an overperformer - I'll be watching! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Wow that’s a solid 30-36 inches across much of northern Dacks and north western VT Stop using kuchera. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Farther nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 So I have two choices. 1). Don’t drink at my client dinner event in NJ tonight and drive home from roughly 9-1AM after a 5 hour energy (keep in mind I get up to workout at 4:30 and did so this AM) 2). Grab a few hours of sleep and set the alarm to drive home to Skaneateles between say 3-7AM. what say ye my fellow trusted weather brethren? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Stop using kuchera. Why stop? It’s the most accurate and considers ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Why stop? It’s the most accurate and considers ratios. No it's not. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Kuchera always over estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Kuchera occasionally works well in perfect deformation scenarios under or near the 700 mb low in well developed rapidly deepening systems. It wont work where much of your lift is waa/isentropic upglide in the 850-700 zone like it is over northern ny. It seems like map/ratio deficiencies have to be pointed out every storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Divide amounts by 3. No way I’m getting 20 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Kuchera occasionally works well in perfect deformation scenarios under or near the 700 mb low in well developed rapidly deepening systems. It wont work where much of your lift is waa/isentropic upglide in the 850-700 zone like it is over northern ny. It seems like map/ratio deficiencies have to be pointed out every storm. No offense but the second round is not at all WAA or isentropic upglide. This first batch was. In fact we have some solid deformation banding in this set up as mentioned by Burlington NWS. I will not be using the 10:1 but will be using Kuchera for this rapidly deepening system . NWS Burlington As of 325 AM EST Thursday...The aforementioned frontogenetic band will be slow to slide eastward on Friday as the area of deformation remains parallel to the mean flow. This means that the area of heaviest snowfall will be slow to move eastward. Snowfall will quickly pile up across northern New York and northern Vermont from late morning through mid afternoon with the 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenesis continuing to strengthen through the early afternoon hours. What`s impressive about this event is that we have a coupling between`s impressive about this event is that we have a coupling between the 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenesis which has been shown in the past to produce some of our stronger snowfall rates. When you couple this lift with an anomalously moist air mass (modified Gulf of Mexico air), you get the making for a rather impressive snow event. Snow ratios initially will be close to 10:1 but as we begin to bleed in some arctic air, we will see snow ratios approach 15:1 Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Each run comes in warmer. Believe the trends. The taint line is always further NW by 30-40 miles. Once temps crash we all see some backend. The track was great. Yesterday. I’m worried the track is too far NW for a lot of us now.We will see. It’s a fun one to track. Aged me 5 years. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Moisture is streaming off of the Gulf of Mexico. Warnings (flash flood, severe thunderstorm) all over Alabama and Georgia this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: No offense but the second round is not at all WAA or isentropic upglide. This first batch was. In fact we have some solid deformation banding in this set up as mentioned by Burlington NWS. I will not be using the 10:1 but will be using Kuchera for this rapidly deepening system . NWS Burlington What`s impressive about this event is that we have a coupling between the 850 mb and 700 mb frontogenesis which has been shown in the past to produce some of our stronger snowfall rates. When you couple this lift with an anomalously moist air mass (modified Gulf of Mexico air), you get the making for a rather impressive snow event. Snow ratios initially will be close to 10:1 but as we begin to bleed in some arctic air, we will see snow ratios approach 15:1 Friday afternoon. Look at the ratios that the kuchera map is showing. It's like 20:1 up there man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Divide amounts by 3. No way I’m getting 20 inches. Another modelology axiom...stop looking at 6 and 18Z runs. Often GIGO and def TMI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Each run comes in warmer. Believe the trends. The taint line is always further NW by 30-40 miles. Once temps crash we all see some backend. The track was great. Yesterday. I’m worried the track is too far NW for a lot of us now.We will see. It’s a fun one to track. Aged me 5 years. Lol Why are you worried in Rochester? There was always going to be taint tonight before the temperature crash. 6Z models are still showing the heaviest snow just to my East. If anything last night’s event was an over achiever. I got 4 inches when the forecast was 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, CNY_WX said: Why are you worried in Rochester? There was always going to be taint tonight before the temperature crash. 6Z models are still showing the heaviest snow just to my East. If anything last night’s event was an over achiever. I got 4 inches when the forecast was 1-3. I’m in adk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, Syrmax said: Another modelology axiom...stop looking at 6 and 18Z runs. Often GIGO and def TMI. That's old school before huge amounts of non- balloon data assimilation. No measurable difference nowadays though the belief is still very prevalent in the community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: I’m in adk Even less reason to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Another modelology axiom...stop looking at 6 and 18Z runs. Often GIGO and def TMI. Yeah. The computers get too hot to run them more than twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 You actually end up doing yourself a disservice by throwing at 06 and 18z runs. Because there is a measurable difference in skill between, let's say, a t+42 model prog and a t+48 model prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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