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Itstrainingtime

Central PA - February 2020

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5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Well, the Friday storm is probably gone, but the GFS keeps serving up another snow chance next week.

Maybe we still will get a chance at a late winter season game save ?

 

 

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Just stop. It's over. It's been over since December.

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It would be the most ironic thing in recorded weather history if the GFS 12z happened verbatim as depicted...

On the above scenario, BOS, NYC and PHL all receive > 20" of snow. That has NEVER happened in recorded history from the same storm. Ever. 

For it to happen on this, of all years, in this, of all patterns...

There's a first time for everything, right? :) 

Edit: Meant to say that it's never happened in MARCH. Sorry! 

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It would be the most ironic thing in recorded weather history if the GFS 12z happened verbatim as depicted...

On the above scenario, BOS, NYC and PHL all receive > 20" of snow. That has NEVER happened in recorded history from the same storm. Ever. 

For it to happen on this, of all years, in this, of all patterns...

There's a first time for everything, right? :) 

The euro says nah!

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6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It would be the most ironic thing in recorded weather history if the GFS 12z happened verbatim as depicted...

On the above scenario, BOS, NYC and PHL all receive > 20" of snow. That has NEVER happened in recorded history from the same storm. Ever. 

For it to happen on this, of all years, in this, of all patterns...

There's a first time for everything, right? :) 

Edit: Meant to say that it's never happened in MARCH. Sorry! 

I agree, Why not get a fluke this year?

In 2017, we had only around 6 inches of snow in the LSV for the season through early March. Then, we got hit with the 17 inch historic winter storm in Harrisburg that took place in the middle of March.

If it happened 3 years ago, why not now?

There is plenty of time to give up in April.

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The EPS still has the EPO going negative around March 13th & stays there through the end of the run.

Also, in a new development for this year, the EPS has the NAO heading to neutral later next week & then stays there through the end of the run.

These 2 factors could help us with our late snow chances.

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I agree, Why not get a fluke this year?
In 2017, we had only around 6 inches of snow in the LSV for the season through early March. Then, we got hit with the 17 inch historic winter storm in Harrisburg that took place in the middle of March.
If it happened 3 years ago, why not now?
There is plenty of time to give up in April.

I always remember that storm because they cancelled flights out of BWI and I was heading to Florida the day of storm. BWI had little to no snow accumulation. Ended up taking flight from Harrisburg despite the nearly 20” of snow.


.

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The overnight GFS (and the 6z coming in) is still persistent on a snow event in our area near the 12th. A look at the GFS ensembles didn't show much support for that op position and reviewing yesterday's 12z insanity on the op, ensembles weren't reflecting a strong coastal snow storm in that cycle either. Other ops don't have C-PA snow (Canadian tries a rain to snow) but they do all show a potential system in the timeframe. In fact, the 0z Euro shows pretty much the kind of wave the GFS had, but running surface low further north through PA with the snow swath through NY State. GFS C-PA snowstorms have been a thing in this range this winter, and not a thing that has translated to much actual white on the ground. So given the general storm pattern all winter, I have to lean towards something like the Euro right now.  Especially since the AO is forecast to be the most positive in this time frame on all the models (around +4).  

Again, the regime in this realm has to neutralize significantly or reverse eventually to maybe have a late chance. I just don't see a -EPO overcoming this unless it's super negative. And an especially -EPO in the progs would signify something's wrong in the guidance since the AO stays very positive. It would either mean the EPO corrects more toward neutral or positive as the forecast range gets closer (has already happened this winter) or the AO corrects toward neutral signifying some higher heights near the pole and possibly a disturbance in the strong PV. A major EPO ridge poking into the polar regions would suggest finally perturbing the PV and weakening the AO regime. But, I'm not seeing any signs of that in the ensemble guidance at the moment. I don't think we're there yet. Ironically, the GFS ensembles actually keep the EPO positive.

 Also, the persistently -PNA we look to remain in enforces IMO the continued issues I see in terms of storm track issues and a base warm pattern here in the east with only brief attempts at chilly. This pattern over the pole will break down, it has to... but the remarkable stability of it and continued forecast stability up through the next 10-15 currently in the models suggest that it will take time. 

 

16 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It would be the most ironic thing in recorded weather history if the GFS 12z happened verbatim as depicted...

On the above scenario, BOS, NYC and PHL all receive > 20" of snow. That has NEVER happened in recorded history from the same storm. Ever. 

For it to happen on this, of all years, in this, of all patterns...

There's a first time for everything, right? :) 

Edit: Meant to say that it's never happened in MARCH. Sorry! 

I know your talking about March, but we might've been talking a worse winter snow wise in MDT around this time in 2016 if not for the one hit wonder of a lifetime in January. The weather can do some crazy stuff. Only needs a window of opportunity. 

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Horst on tomorrow/tomorrow night:

"Wet snow will fall in some PA mountain locations while intermittent rain & drizzle falls in the valleys (though it can mix with snow during higher intensity spells). Friday night brings an outside chance of some wrap-around precip in the form of snow or snow showers."

I think this situation screams that a few (probably very few) people get a nice surprise in the next 36 hours but it's going to be nowcasting event and if and when it does materialize, most will be on the outside looking in. 

I also believe that this is quite likely the last chance for most of us in the LSV barring a later March/early April hail mary. 

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***removed by me***

Very frustrated right now, but no need to post what I did, so I self moderated myself...

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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Horst on tomorrow/tomorrow night:

"Wet snow will fall in some PA mountain locations while intermittent rain & drizzle falls in the valleys (though it can mix with snow during higher intensity spells). Friday night brings an outside chance of some wrap-around precip in the form of snow or snow showers."

I think this situation screams that a few (probably very few) people get a nice surprise in the next 36 hours but it's going to be nowcasting event and if and when it does materialize, most will be on the outside looking in. 

I also believe that this is quite likely the last chance for most of us in the LSV barring a later March/early April hail mary. 

Well, if this is possibly one of our last chances, then I had better post the good old reliable NAM for tomorrow !

Hopefully a few of us cash in with a “solid coating” of snow by tomorrow night.

 

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Well, if this is possibly one of our last chances, then I had better post the good old reliable NAM for tomorrow !

Hopefully a few of us cash in with a “solid coating” of snow by tomorrow night.

 

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My first day on the new job. It happens ALL THE TIME...

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The 6z NAM & 6z GFS still have a decent amount of snow for much of the Susquehanna Valley today.

I’ll just be happy if I get to see snow in the air for a few hours, A heavy coating on the grass would be a bonus.

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Some flakes mixing in with the rain here.  A couple degrees cooler and we could have had a nice coating here. Still hoping for a burst of snow sometime tonight. 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

It was sunny this afternoon for a good hour. 

What do you mean ? 

I just got done shoveling the 2 inches of snow that the GFS & NAM we’re giving me yesterday!

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4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

What do you mean ? 

I just got done shoveling the 2 inches of snow that the GFS & NAM we’re giving me yesterday!

lol

it hit 48 at my house. No real rain all day. Buuuuust.

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