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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

True, but thats through hr 240 which includes 3 events lol

Euro had a snowstorm with wave 3..

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus (70).png

 

sn10_acc.conus (10).png

PaulyFromPlattsburgh should be happy with that snowfall map.  I just bought a nice sized Toro snowblower so that means winter is over.  I would love to give it a workout in 12+ inches.

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47 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's a decent event for the Dacks. Foot or so. 

Let's look at it 5his way though the euro came to the GFS for once...im still liking the NF chances for next week's storm. Buffalo north usually do well in gradient type storms such as that and the southern tier taints or even rains near PA border

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

That isnt a typo, that isnt a spelling mistake.  That is a complete misunderstanding of a saying.  Intensive purposes doesn't make any sense at all.  What is an intensive purpose, lolz.

Maybe.  Maybe not.  You dont know for sure either.

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Just now, Syrmax said:

Maybe.  Maybe not.  You dont know for sure either.

Well actually I do. There is one saying. It’s for all intents and purposes.  You can’t accidentally type intensive purposes. No need to defend the guy like he’s your father.  Let’s get back to being disappointed by the lack of winter. 

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15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I can't believe we're going to go an entire winter without a good LES band. 

Could you imagine if I had moved to the Tug this winter with the great expectations I had?!?!?

Never mind...Don't...No need to fill your head with THM complaints...lol

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15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Could you imagine if I had moved to the Tug this winter with the great expectations I had?!?!?

Never mind...Don't...No need to fill your head with THM complaints...lol

Last year was very similar to this year except we had the SSW event in late December that brought a piece of the PV into our area for 2 weeks in late Jan/Early Feb that brought Buffalo 60% of its snowfall for the winter in a 2-3 week period. 

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35 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Well actually I do. There is one saying. It’s for all intents and purposes.  You can’t accidentally type intensive purposes. No need to defend the guy like he’s your father.  Let’s get back to being disappointed by the lack of winter. 

 

1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

I'm glad you are so sure of yourself. 

Are you two joining the ranks of Dave and Freak in the Rochester/Syracuse Hate?

The Buffalonians stay out of it. They're like France. :P

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17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Could you imagine if I had moved to the Tug this winter with the great expectations I had?!?!?

Never mind...Don't...No need to fill your head with THM complaints...lol

Should have came a few years ago. Redfield got nearly 150" of snow in just December. 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/wintersummary1314

 

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Didn't realize the CIPS analogs are derived from the GEFS which have showed consistent cold in the long range for the last 2 months straight. Makes sense now how bad they've been. They're good for 2-3 days out analog events, but beyond that not much use as GEFS have been so terrible. 

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Feb 4-8th was supposed to be pretty cold, not so much anymore..Once a pattern gets locked in its tough to break. My friend has been in Alaska for 5 weeks and it hasn't gone above 0 degrees since he's been there. (Willow, Alaska) He's dog sledding there today. 

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

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16461514-AE7A-4690-8BBD-2D53EB2E971E.thumb.png.5f73c528e41cb114132f7e181da714a1.png

I’m not sure how they get from the maps above which basically cover the first half of the month to this outlook for the entire month.  We would need to have a much below normal second half of the month. 

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3 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

PaulyFromPlattsburgh should be happy with that snowfall map.  I just bought a nice sized Toro snowblower so that means winter is over.  I would love to give it a workout in 12+ inches.

Haha I am very happy. I have not been on all day. But happy to see the pattern looks like it’s shifting in a better direction for the North country.

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5 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

That isnt a typo, that isnt a spelling mistake.  That is a complete misunderstanding of a saying.  Intensive purposes doesn't make any sense at all.  What is an intensive purpose, lolz.

Things are starting to get really intense here...just kidding.

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2 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

16461514-AE7A-4690-8BBD-2D53EB2E971E.thumb.png.5f73c528e41cb114132f7e181da714a1.png

I’m not sure how they get from the maps above which basically cover the first half of the month to this outlook for the entire month.  We would need to have a much below normal second half of the month. 

It happened in February 1950. Looks like serious cold arrived after the 19th that year.

 

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|2013-06-13&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2013-06-13&mlyRange=1937-01-01|2013-06-01&StationID=5097&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2017&selRowPerPage=25&Line=61&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=Toronto&timeframe=2&Day=1&Year=1950&Month=2

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Feb 4-8th was supposed to be pretty cold, not so much anymore..Once a pattern gets locked in its tough to break. My friend has been in Alaska for 5 weeks and it hasn't gone above 0 degrees since he's been there. (Willow, Alaska) He's dog sledding there today. 

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

This winter is turning into the polar opposite of 1993-1994. That year, the pattern flipped to severe cold around December 21, 1993 and that pattern pretty much repeated itself right through to mid February 1994. This year, the pattern flipped to mild around December 21, and has been repeating itself ever since.

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8 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Cohen throwing in the towel. About time. 

Joe Bastardi also seems to be throwing in the towel. Says the EPO is king, if it stays positive, it's over. Says this could end up being a "Peggy Lee winter", i.e. "is that all there is". You know it's bad when a guy who is always calling for cold is throwing in the towel.

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NWS balt/DC
Teleconnection patterns are
showing the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) trending negative
after the first 7 days in Feb suggesting a return to colder
temperatures, but the NAO and AO are expected to remain positive
over the next two weeks which not may be all conducive/favorable
to an all snow event. Definitely something to watch as winter
tries to come back.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=4&glossary=1&highlight=off

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4 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

PaulyFromPlattsburgh should be happy with that snowfall map.  I just bought a nice sized Toro snowblower so that means winter is over.  I would love to give it a workout in 12+ inches.

What Toro did you get? I bought a new toro power max hd 928 this fall.

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37 minutes ago, Geez150 said:

What Toro did you get? I bought a new toro power max hd 928 this fall.

Was going to get the 928 but the guy sold me on a 1028.  I traded in a 1994 Cub Cadet that he called a rust bucket.  I saw a review of the 928 on YouTube where the guy chewed right through a 22 inch snowfall and was throwing it 50 feet on his neighbor’s shed.

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