Upstate/Eastern New York

[rochesterdave]

29 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

It's been quite amusing to me to read through the last few pages of this thread without posting, cause it surely shows how completely nuts we really are about Winter Weather, lol! I'm not being pessimistic but I just don't see anything materializing the next couple weeks and that brings us to the last Month of Winter and who really cares by then, lol.  Yeah the EPO goes Negative for a time but having both a Super +PNA and a equally positive NAO pretty much negates the push of Cold Air out way or else we'd all be rejoicing right now even if one of the other indices were in the other direction, lol!

What has been off all yr has been the timing of our beloved indices, lol!  With that type of drop in the EPO I'd be rejoicing but when I see a PNA and a NAO the way they are I have to seriously laugh and say to myself, WTF is going on, lol, but unfortunately these kinds of Winters occur.  Oh believe me, we'll get our week of Winter but it may in fact be, at the end of March, lol!

I was wondering where you went. 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I get too sick to my stomach ever time the models run cause they all are absolutely useless and have been, period!  Some of the 6 hr swings are just F'in maddening so those for me are OVER for sure as you can see!  This yr is HOPELESS but as optimists we keep saying to ourselves, or at least I do, lol, when our turn, lol but it may never come this yr!

[CNY-LES FREAK]

We cant event get cold air for 2 -3 days at a time to hang around, never-mind sustained, which is 6-12 weeks, can you imagine that happening now?  Well at least the Polar caps stayed put this yr cause thats where all the cold was this yr, up thataway, lol!

[wolfie09]

The main issue for long term is determining the extent of precip,
ptype and the potential (which could pose significant winter weather
impacts) in the Wednesday night, Thursday and Thursday night time
frame. Primary take away point is this forecast likely will change
multiple times until we get much closer to the event, so continue to
monitor latest forecasts and statements.

Right off the top, prefer the latest and more consistent ECMWF
solution with general look to pattern Wednesday night into Thursday
as it meshes much better with our forecast continuity. Will steer
away from latest GFS as it broke from multiple previous runs by
showing little if any precip here until later Thursday aftn. Appears
that as the polar jet temporarily merges with subtropical jet
(yielding a 160-180 kt 250mb jet) a lot of energy and moisture
(pwats over 90th percentile at BUF come 12z Thu) will aid in
deepening sfc low lifting across Ohio valley toward lower Great
Lakes. Expect pops to ratchet up steadily on Wednesday night
starting out as a widespread snow. Eventually though warm layer
aloft makes its way ahead of the sfc low, leading to less snow and
more mixed precip, rain into Thursday as temps warm . There is loose
agreement on this scenario, though given the changes from run-to-run
in the models and the overall complicated setup with multiple
shortwaves lifting across here ahead of main upper trough,
confidence remains relatively low in exactly how the details of
forecast will ultimately work out.

Another wave of low pressure could track across the lower Great
Lakes on Thursday night into Friday which ultimately changes the
mixed precip back to snow before it tapers off on Friday as some
weak lake effect. Or will a coastal low be the main player later
Thursday night with another swath of mainly snow across our forecast
area. Models and ensembles are quite unclear on this, so will keep
broadbrushed forecast for rain/snow changing back to snow showers by
Friday. Light lake effect snow may try to develop on Friday behind
the exiting system as colder air (H85 temps of -10c or lower)
prompts some lake response within westerly flow. Another shortwave
working through in the base of the larger scale troughing for
Saturday will bring another chance of light snow showers.

[Leelee]

I remember '15 February where temps never got above freezing and the entire 2nd half of the month was below zero. I was very grouchy.

[TugHillMatt]

I remember back in November 2019 when we had that one week of winter.

 

[wolfie09]

Well the gfs looked good for at least one more run..

WPC now going with a track just west of us..

[rochesterdave]

GFS has been very insistent. 

[MJO812]

This looks good for interior NY

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

The polar vortex has been absent from the United States for most of winter thus far, which lead to a very warm January.

The Eastern Seaboard through the central and southern Plains recorded temperatures that averaged well above normal by the end of the month. The average temperature was also above normal for the interior portions of the West.

February is forecast to start off with more abnormal warmth across the Plains and East, but some changes are expected as we move through the second month of the year.

The colder air expected to slice into the Central states during the first part of next week may be a sign of even more brutal Arctic air that could take root later in the month.

“We are anticipating that a strong push of Arctic air will take place into the U.S. during the second and third week of February in response to a displacement or weakening of the polar vortex during the first week of February,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.

When the polar vortex-a pool of bitter air that often sits over the North Pole during winter, weakens or becomes elongated, the frigid air that is normally locked up above the Arctic Circle can eventually break loose and move southward.

There is at least one factor working against a large sweep of frigid air into the Eastern states, especially across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic.

An area of high pressure at most levels of the atmosphere has persisted in the southwestern Atlantic this winter — and it has been helping to pump mild air up the Eastern Seaboard. Indications are that this pattern may continue during much of February.

“For this reason, we expect the upcoming big discharge of Arctic air to target the interior West and northern Plains initially, where it might be more persistent as February progresses,” Pastelok said.

While much colder air could work into the Eastern states during the middle to latter parts of February, there is some uncertainty as to how long-lasting and/or severe this may be, depending in part on the persistent area of high pressure over the southwestern Atlantic,” Pastelok said.

The last significant polar vortex shift was during mid- to late-November, which triggered the cold outbreak from late November to early December.

Even though a few major Arctic outbreaks in years past have reached much of the United States, it is rare for the entire Lower 48 states to be cold all at the same time. Typically, cold air will punch into one-third to two-thirds of the contiguous states as other regions remain warmer than average. So, if cold air were to sprawl over the Western and Central states, there would be a tendency for the East or the Southeast to remain warmer for a longer period of time.

“No matter what, we do not see a six- to eight-week outbreak of Arctic air, which is usually what happens with a polar vortex shift, but rather seven- to 14-day cold episodes or shorter,” Pastelok said.

“There can still be a couple of days and nights where cold air sneaks its way into the Southeast with a frost or hard freeze and that could be a problem with the leaf-out and blossoming running two to three weeks ahead of schedule,” he added.

The warmth coming early next week is likely to increase that leaf-out anomaly.

The spread of colder air into the Central states and perhaps the Northeast could set up an active storm track as February progresses. Depending on which side of the temperature contrast zone places end up, would determine where areas of heavy snow, ice and rain occur.

Snowfall has generally been close to average over the heartland with a few pockets of below-average snowfall in cities such as Chicago.

Much of the northern tier of the Central states has received above-average snowfall thus far with near- to above-average snow for the northern tier of the Northeast. However, a definitive snow drought has persisted over much of the central Appalachians to the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts.

A mere 0.3 of an inch of snow has fallen on Philadelphia, compared to a seasonal average close to 9 inches by the end of January. Perennial snow spots such as South Bend, Indiana; Erie Pennsylvania; Cleveland and Buffalo, New York; have had 25 to 50% of average snowfall thus far.

Very few cities have received above-average snowfall, and the ones that have are mostly in northern New England.

At least for skiers, snowmobilers and snow lovers in general, there is still some hope for more of the white stuff in some of the snow-starved zone if the cold press and storm track pans out. But even if winter storms take an ideal path, there is no guarantee that storms will bring all snow.

In the meantime, home and business owners are saving on their heating bills from the Central and Eastern states with temperature departures that recorded well above normal in January.

[rochesterdave]

I love how they end that nonsense with an optimistic little bit on heating bill savings. Like bro, I’d gladly triple my heating bill to get one good week. Besides, does anyone put any faith in the LR when 4 days out has been a continual source of disappointment? I’d sooner trust a Gypsy with a deck of cards and a crystal ball. 

[BuffaloWeather]

These weird white objects are falling from the sky. We've actually kept around 1-3" of snow here for the entire week. I know most areas around Buffalo haven't had snow on the ground but southern Erie has had 2-6" on the ground. The Village of Hamburg has 3-4". It felt like winter out there.

[TugHillMatt]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

These weird white objects are falling from the sky. We've actually kept around 1-3" of snow here for the entire week. I know most areas around Buffalo haven't had snow on the ground but southern Erie has had 2-6" on the ground. The Village of Hamburg has 3-4". It felt like winter out there.

Just checked the Buffalo Webcam. Looks like it is snowing pretty good there.

https://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-ny-elmwood-ave-posterartusa-mr-pizza

 

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Just checked the Buffalo Webcam. Looks like it is snowing pretty good there.

https://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-ny-elmwood-ave-posterartusa-mr-pizza

 

Looks like a beautiful night on the slopes south of here

https://www.holidayvalley.com/explore/webcams/

[rochesterdave]

Those look like perfect conditions

[TugHillMatt]

I wonder if this batch will make it over here, or be another one that dries up over the Finger Lakes.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

.

[TugHillMatt]

Looks like it's starting in Rochester now. Hopefully many can get in a nice Jebwalk tonight.

[wolfie09]

We may catch a snow shower or two this evening (50% pops) east of L Ontario but it's tomorrow and tomorrow evening that has the best chance for accumulating snow (forecast 2"-4") , NWS mentioned possible headlines for the tug region..

[winter_rules]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

These weird white objects are falling from the sky. We've actually kept around 1-3" of snow here for the entire week. I know most areas around Buffalo haven't had snow on the ground but southern Erie has had 2-6" on the ground. The Village of Hamburg has 3-4". It felt like winter out there.

At 1,700FT in the NW Catskills, I have been generally estimating that 90% of our recent winters are white, but only 10% of the winter do we have 6”+ on the ground.  I finally started tracking it on January 1 and, even with this horrible weather pattern, we were white for 24 of 31 days in January (about 77.5%).  Never more than about 4” on the ground at any one time.  I’m hoping to keep up the record keeping and really see how it averages out over the years. 
 

To be clear, we live in a rural high elevation area known for snow.  Go a few miles North into the Susquehanna valley (Sidney, Oneonta, Binghamton) and it’s a whole different story.  

[TugHillMatt]

Looks like we may actually have a last minute over-performer on our hands for tomorrow (hopefully moreso in the evening). 00Z Runs seem to be showing a few inches possible.

I wonder how this may impact the systems coming after it this upcoming week.

[rochesterdave]

GFS sticking to its story. Crazy. 

[rochesterdave]

That would be epic

[wolfie09]

Best run yet lol

[wolfie09]

For giggles

[rochesterdave]

I’d feel so much better if the Canook didn’t crap all over us in 15 minutes. 

[rochesterdave]

Holy crap, CMC might be coming in to GFS! 

[rochesterdave]

Hopeful signs to be sure. The set up looks completely different than it had. This is a more traditional type system. We don’t need to rely on quite the level of interaction as we have. I really hope it makes this one a little bit more predictable. 
gotta say, first time I feel hopeful. Tee up the football Lucy.