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Rtd208

February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Just now, Allsnow said:

It’s has its flaws but has been good overall. It’s first to correct in the medium range. The lower hgts moving into Ak is no good for us and has been a theme this winter. 

It has been awful but so has this pattern. Let's see which MJO is right between gefs and euro.

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24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps is ugly. Outside a cold shot next weekend This goose is going to change in the next run. Literally changed every run and doesn’t make up its mind within 72 hours eps doesn’t know what it’s doing! 
 

FYP

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2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:
26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps is ugly. Outside a cold shot next weekend This goose is going to change in the next run. Literally changed every run and doesn’t make up its mind within 72 hours eps doesn’t know what it’s doing! 
 

FYP

Eps and euro have been horrible and yet people worship it.

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It has been awful but so has this pattern. Let's see which MJO is right between gefs and euro.

The GEFS are wrong. It doesn’t match any of the roundy plots. 

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20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What ? Go away troll.

I would always be right if I forecasted warmth like you always do.

When I see a cold pattern, I'll go cold, the last 3 years have been an inferno...deal with it. Just because the EPS has a solution you don't like is not reason to call it a terrible model when it has the highest verification score....had the model showed an ice age I'm sure you'd be saying it's great.    

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Did the  roundy plots go into MJO 8--1-2 a couple weeks ago ?

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The GEFS are wrong. It doesn’t match any of the roundy plots. 

 

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If there is a material amelioration of the z500 from hostile to mediocre, it won't occur until very late in February and into March, as I've been delineating in my past couple of updates. So, I wouldn't expect to see anything too striking on the D10-15 EPS right now. I am still monitoring a few indicators [not related to the high frequency intraseasonal signal] which may improve near the end of February and beyond; however, that is not a guarantee. Until further notice, the RNA structure continues: cool NW US/Mid-west, warmer SE US.

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41 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Did the  roundy plots go into MJO 8--1-2 a couple weeks ago ?

 

 

On 2/5/2020 at 1:37 PM, NittanyWx said:

See this is where I'm disagree.  I really am not a fan of using RMM plots when I can observe OLR/VPA data in real time.  This was our mid-Jan period.  That's about as coherent of a dateline forcing signal as you're gonna get...

 

image1

 

 

And we still couldn't find a way to get durable cold out of this.  Some will argue that it was a bit more biased to SHem forcing due to some tropical activity, but you still had broad lift in the dateline regions and a ton of subsidence in the Maritime Continent.

Yes it did. The forcing made it into 8-1-2 but the convection firing by Australia muted the response. The roundy plots correctly predicted the 5-6 pass for this month at the end of January. It was laughed out by the usually suspects but again they were proven wrong 
 

The eps nailed the RNA pattern for February. It did have a hiccup at the end of January when it had a cold pattern in the 11-15 day. But outside of that it’s been okay. The GEFS have been too cold in the medium range. 

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46 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

About everything, give it a rest and read more and post less

This is a ridiculous post from a member that should be on a daily post limit. 
 

The fact that you can’t give examples to your ridiculous claims makes your posts irrelevant.

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Yes it did. The forcing made it into 8-1-2 but the convection firing by Australia muted the response. 
 

The eps nailed the RNA pattern for February. It did have a hiccup at the end of January when it has a cold pattern in the 11-15 day. But outside of that it’s been okay. The GEFS have been too cold in the medium range. 

that warm water N of Australia was a warning shot that our winter was going to have issues (warm water would point to the MJO wanting to go back to 5/6 which it has now done twice)

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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This is a ridiculous post from a member that should be on a daily post limit. 
 

The fact that you can’t give examples to your ridiculous claims makes your posts irrelevant.

He wont be responding for awhile. 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

that warm water N of Australia was a warning shot that our winter was going to have issues (warm water would point to the MJO wanting to go back to 5/6 which it has now done twice)

Absolutely. It’s one of the main reasons this winter went down the toilet. The other being the Pv. 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Absolutely. It’s one of the main reasons this winter went down the toilet. The other being the Pv. 

the third reason is the AO/NAO-I wonder if either the MJO or the PV influenced that at all?

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56 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Give examples....what have they been wrong about 

You can't be serious . How about individual storms when both busted near the event ?

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58 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

About everything, give it a rest and read more and post less

I agree it has been bad but post less will not solve anything.  Allsnow is a good poster. 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

the third reason is the AO/NAO-I wonder if either the MJO or the PV influenced that at all?

I’m not sure about the Ao. The Pv being so strong I don’t think has a effect on it. (I could be wrong) We really needed strat hits with such a strong PV and never got them. The Ao is so positive because of strong storm by the pole I believe..... @bluewave might know more 
 

I know we had some higher hgts in Greenland to start December. It obviously wasn’t a true -nao but helped sne score a good storm. Since then, yes it’s been MIA. The vortex near Greenland certainly doesn’t help. 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You can't be serious . How about individual storms when both busted near the event ?

Inside 7 days it has been too snowy at times. But specifically speaking for H5 set ups it has not been bad. 

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Inside 7 days it has been too snowy at times. But specifically speaking for H5 set ups it has not been bad. 

I agree

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Give examples....what have they been wrong about 

If any of you have access to how the models have done since the Fall or last Summer never mind this Winter could you tell myself or others where we might find how the models have done or can you post the scores ? IMO,  I don't think any Model has done very well and I am talking about long before Dec 21st. If you guys can't post the verification scores, can you let me know where one might find recent scores and I would search for them myself? Thanks in advance

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe some chances 

not a bad look-if (big if) we can get on the right side of the gradient b/w the SE ridge and the cold air, the storm track could work for us-models show  the corridor from TX to NE to be wetter than normal next few weeks.

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23 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

If any of you have access to how the models have done since the Fall or last Summer never mind this Winter could you tell myself or others where we might find how the models have done or can you post the scores ? IMO,  I don't think any Model has done very well and I am talking about long before Dec 21st. If you guys can't post the verification scores, can you let me know where one might find recent scores and I would search for them myself? Thanks in advance

I posted them the other day. The EPS has been the best scoring model after 5 days. While all models have a had a cold bias beyond 5 days, the GEFS has been much worse. 
 

http://www.frontierweather.com/verification.html

2F53FB6E-3A4D-44AF-A1E5-1DBBF3AC8534.png.06642aa92d389f0110e98337d4061bd2.png
DEACEF2D-D065-4D20-AED3-79896DADEDB8.png.6c7b70d48eac8f0b69acfa7a033bc449.png

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2 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

 I believe either Don S or Uncle had shown where there were more in March than Dec.

I remember reading that in here. ( Possible It was combined as you say ) . 

 

 

I can't speak for either of them and their posts are always spot on. My guess would be they were posting similar stats for the time period of 1950 or so to current. What I posted was from 1870 to current and I assure you it is accurate.

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