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Mid to Long Range Threats

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2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

December was decent around here. Got 6” of snow from 2-3 events. Got another 3.5” in January 

True the beginning of December wasn't awful although the storms were dissapointments for the city, then there was the miracle snow from the GLC but other than that its been rough

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2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

well you can have a decent snowstorm in march even in the city so their is still hope...

In early March I am still down but by about mid March I’m ready for it to be over. I hate spring as it is. 

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4 hours ago, psv88 said:

It almost never snows in bad patterns. Take a break brother. You are spiraling. 

I think a lot of us up and down the East Coast feel like spiralling. I see you guys haven't had it much better...it's hard to know how to just accept a winter this bad.

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2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS in a span of 4 runs goes from supressed to our south to an inland track with temps hitting 50 for the region, I'm so done with this winter 

Was very easy to call this rain, just follow the pattern and what countless other events have been doing all season. It's rain. Maybe Syracuse and Adirondacks can get a nice event, or the Ohio Valley. Just won't be us until the Pacific jet slows down, SE ridge can get squashed, and/or the NAO cooperates. It just won't happen. I couldn't care less what some 180 or 240hr model shows until those factors change.

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53 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Was very easy to call this rain, just follow the pattern and what countless other events have been doing all season. It's rain. Maybe Syracuse and Adirondacks can get a nice event, or the Ohio Valley. Just won't be us until the Pacific jet slows down, SE ridge can get squashed, and/or the NAO cooperates. It just won't happen. I couldn't care less what some 180 or 240hr model shows until those factors change.

Anything over 100 hours is fantasy but the pattern sucks. 

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It looks like another bout of heavy rain could be looming for mid/late week. If we keep getting enough of these systems as we move into late winter/early spring that will only build the flooding issues as we move ahead in time. Something to keep an eye on as we move into March/April.

 
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10 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS in a span of 4 runs goes from supressed to our south to an inland track with temps hitting 50 for the region, I'm so done with this winter 

When the euro is on our side , it busts but when it's not on our side it doesnt bust.

What an area we live in.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

If only there was blocking with this very active pattern. We would have been crushed.

Yep. So much for the the solar minimum giving us blocking this winter. No where to be found. Still keeping hopes alive we get a rogue snowstorm before spring in this god awful pattern. 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

When the euro is on our side , it busts but when it's not on our side it doesnt bust.

What an area we live in.

6Z GFS was less amped than 0Z and Euro looked a little less amped than 12Z, I know I'm, grasping at straws though, this isn't our storm, it never is this winter, at best it might be a front end snow for the interior portions of the forum   

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38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

When the euro is on our side , it busts but when it's not on our side it doesnt bust.

What an area we live in.

Anthony you have just provided a weather models definition of Murphy’s Law. As always ......

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39 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

6Z GFS was less amped than 0Z and Euro looked a little less amped than 12Z, I know I'm, grasping at straws though, this isn't our storm, it never is this winter, at best it might be a front end snow for the interior portions of the forum   

Check out the Nam

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26 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Good track. Should of been a snowier result. GFS is unreliable with thermals this far out.

No cold high to the north is the other issue here

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The current pattern does not support snow. If you like rain I think there will be plenty of it in the mid to long range. It's an active pattern.

Disclaimer: That does not mean we can't see a rogue snowstorm or two but I think if it happens it will be at the tail end of February or the beginning of March.

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28 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The current pattern does not support snow. If you like rain I think there will be plenty of it in the mid to long range. It's an active pattern.

Disclaimer: That does not mean we can't see a rogue snowstorm or two but I think if it happens it will be at the tail end of February or the beginning of March.

It snowed last night at my house & snow is expected again overnight.1-2 inches

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1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Good track. Should of been a snowier result. GFS is unreliable with thermals this far out.

No it should not have been. There is no cold high. It’s not a problem with thermals it’s a problem with cold air

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8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Borrowed from JB's post this AM-but the CFS for April-here comes winter!

-

cfs_monthly_all_avg_namer_t2m_c_anom_month_mostrecent_5699200(1).png

I am not sure I agree with that. I think we start to warm up substantially (above normal) by mid April IMO. Overall I think April will wind up above normal this year. I guess we'll see.

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4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I am not sure I agree with that. I think we start to warm up substantially (above normal) by mid April IMO. Overall I think April will wind up above normal this year. I guess we'll see.

it's the CFS so take it for what's it worth....(or any model 2 months out)

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16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Borrowed from JB's post this AM-but the CFS for April-here comes winter!

-

cfs_monthly_all_avg_namer_t2m_c_anom_month_mostrecent_5699200(1).png

The climatological probability of April's have a temperature anomaly of 5 degrees or more below normal in the New York City area (including NJ and CT)  is low. At this point in time, the drivers of the April pattern cannot reliably be pinned down. It is perilous to assume an extreme outcome, especially from this far out.

For a reminder of the risks involved, one need look no farther than the forecasts from multiple outlets concerning a severely cold winter that were held through mid-January by which the fundamental winter pattern (strong AO+/EPO+ and related outcomes) were widely evident. Indeed, recognizing the pattern evolution and to its credit, BAMWX threw out its 1995-96 analog at the end of December and has done exceptionally well since then. That move highlights a separate risk that is often ignored: analogs can anchor one to a bad forecast if one holds onto them too long when there is little evidence that things are evolving toward those analogs.

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The probability of April's have a temperature anomaly of 5 degrees or more below normal in the New York City area (including NJ and CT)  is low. At this point in time, the drivers of the April pattern cannot reliably be pinned down. It is perilous to assume an extreme outcome, especially from this far out.

For a reminder of the risks involved, one need look no farther than the forecasts from multiple outlets concerning a severely cold winter that were held through mid-January by which the fundamental winter pattern (strong AO+/EPO+ and related outcomes) were widely evident. Indeed, recognizing the pattern evolution and to its credit, BAMWX threw out its 1995-96 analog at the end of December and has done exceptionally well since then. That move highlights a separate risk that is often ignored: analogs can anchor one to a bad forecast if one holds onto them too long when there is little evidence that things are evolving toward those analogs.

yep know when to hold em and when to throw them.   When models backed off the late Jan pattern change about a week out, that's when I threw in the towel personally.

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's the CFS so take it for what's it worth....(or any model 2 months out)

Watch this happen along with a cold and active March.

It is like clock  work.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The climatological probability of April's have a temperature anomaly of 5 degrees or more below normal in the New York City area (including NJ and CT)  is low. At this point in time, the drivers of the April pattern cannot reliably be pinned down. It is perilous to assume an extreme outcome, especially from this far out.

For a reminder of the risks involved, one need look no farther than the forecasts from multiple outlets concerning a severely cold winter that were held through mid-January by which the fundamental winter pattern (strong AO+/EPO+ and related outcomes) were widely evident. Indeed, recognizing the pattern evolution and to its credit, BAMWX threw out its 1995-96 analog at the end of December and has done exceptionally well since then. That move highlights a separate risk that is often ignored: analogs can anchor one to a bad forecast if one holds onto them too long when there is little evidence that things are evolving toward those analogs.

Honestly JB should not being throwing out maps like this so far in advance IMO. We are talking April which is almost 2 months away.

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Watch this happen along with a cold and active March.

It is like clock  work.

would not mind a raw chilly april into may anything to hold back the heat for as long as possible...

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