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Mid to Long Range Threats

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27 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Dr No has been awful this winter.  

I'm starting to hate winter.

Seems to be a two way over salted street, winter does not have much love for us either, as always .......

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28 minutes ago, rclab said:

Seems to be a two way over salted street, winter does not have much love for us either, as always .......

I think we could see a string of clunkers coming up especially with the long term +NAO tendency right now

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The trough is actually quite amplified but the flow is too progressive. Really could have used some ridging over Greenland. The lack of blocking is a major issue.

Yeah and this also really limits the upside of this event. As usual this year we’re begging for crumbs. 

Best case scenario the two vorts phase and slow this thing down just enough in the right place. 

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13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think we could see a string of clunkers coming up especially with the long term +NAO tendency right now

We need something to breakup the pattern. With a few exceptions this year it's been mostly cutter central with no blocking.

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7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Gfs is going to be west!

really please explain

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

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really please explain
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png&key=39b919c218500a70289fcbeaef210be1aa9d80d60471314c8b0c53462e3d2568
I think he was looking at the frame before that but you could see it was going to go more east with the flow.

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Clearly, this is not going to trend in our favor. The pattern is terrible. Just that type of winter. 

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31 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Clearly, this is not going to trend in our favor. The pattern is terrible. Just that type of winter. 

Lol do you have time to breathe between vacillating opinions? 

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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Even the lakes arent getting anything right now. 

Think I'm going to lay low for awhile. There's nothing going on and nothing on the horizon of any significance; the story is the AN temps and lack of snow, and the severe flu season. Flu seems to be enjoying the mild winter....

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

We need something to breakup the pattern. With a few exceptions this year it's been mostly cutter central with no blocking.

It looks -PNA/RNA going into mid-February. It’s becoming clear that a meaningful change in the longwave pattern for us is going to wait until the end of February and March, which I think is going to happen. While there can obviously still be cold and snow at that point, the clock will be ticking, met winter ends 3/1, Equinox, 3/19. Once you get to 3/15, sustaining winter south of New England becomes increasingly difficult; at that point, you are fighting against climo, sun angle and length of day....

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It looks -PNA/RNA going into mid-February. It’s becoming clear that a meaningful change in the longwave pattern for us is going to wait until the end of February and March, which I think is going to happen. While there can obviously still be cold and snow at that point, the clock will be ticking, met winter ends 3/1, Equinox, 3/19. Once you get to 3/15, sustaining winter south of New England becomes increasingly difficult; at that point, you are fighting against climo, sun angle and length of day....

I guess by Atlanta standards we are having/had a great winter. Perhaps in a generation or so we will be them. As always ....

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

We need something to breakup the pattern. With a few exceptions this year it's been mostly cutter central with no blocking.

The status quo looks to continue as far as the eyes can see. 

If a major change is going to happen it'll be in late Feb (Isotherm has nailed it so far). It would not shock me if March ends up being colder/snowier than met winter (the bar is very low).

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Euro had slightly more phasing in the midwest with a closed low. Coastal was further west this run. 

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15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And Montreal will be NYC, and Boston will be Richmond, and Philadelphia will be Charlotte, who knows where it ends, or when it reverses.

Overreacting a bit much

milder winters happen. Cold winters happen. It’s how we get averages

 

last twenty years have generally been cold and snowy winters. 
 

just my take. 

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The status quo looks to continue as far as the eyes can see. 

If a major change is going to happen it'll be in late Feb (Isotherm has nailed it so far). It would not shock me if March ends up being colder/snowier than met winter (the bar is very low).

It would be a continuation of recent trends.

Four of the last 5 Marches in NYC have been the snowiest months of the season, and not just in the bad years.

Odder still is two of the last three Marches have been colder than that seasons February. That rarely happens.

 

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11 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Overreacting a bit much

milder winters happen. Cold winters happen. It’s how we get averages

 

last twenty years have generally been cold and snowy winters. 
 

just my take. 

Snowier yes, but not cold by any measure. The last 20 years the December through March Period has been on average 2.5 degrees warmer than the historical averages in NYC.

I state facts I don't overreact, but if you say that again I'm going to my safe space.

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More from the SNE  THREAD image.thumb.png.36cb4dd6b43d4db54e7028d493988dab.png.379bc90899a46881ec6b92a55d2c3d92.png

 

Looks like quite a few more to the west. Looking on my phone can't see how strong the LP are though.  

Edit: zoomed in better not many under 990 that are at BM or west. Not sure this helps us much.

 

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14 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

Looks like quite a few more to the west. Looking on my phone can't see how strong the LP are though.  

Edit: zoomed in better not many under 990 that are at BM or west. Not sure this helps us much.

 

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Also numerous leaning well East.

Time to break out the snow storm magnet.

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Also numerous leaning well East.
Time to break out the snow storm magnet.
Yes but a little more left leaning compared to 12z. Although like I said looks like more NS interaction but the strength of the LP seemed to actually be less than the west ones at 12z.

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1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Overreacting a bit much

milder winters happen. Cold winters happen. It’s how we get averages

 

last twenty years have generally been cold and snowy winters. 
 

just my take. 

Not so much cold but definitely snowy, the coast had a great run in terms of intense snowstorms.

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37 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This still looks like a long shot for the coast. Hudson Valley on north still in the game IMO

Yea because of the temps issue I get where you are coming from although I think if it's west enough to snow in the Hudson Valley it will be strong enough to bring the snow line down to I95. We are far away from that solution right now. 

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