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Thundersnow12

January 22nd-25th Winter Storm Potential

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On 1/18/2020 at 8:27 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

Ride the Euro. 

GEFS mean and members look decently interesting enough. 

 

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

u know it's coming

 

Capture.JPG

 

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17 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

UHI didn't have an affect either.

Temps in IN and S Michigan were in the mid 30's as well, advecting in from the east.

Then how come only Milwaukee County was affected?  If it’s warm air advecting from the East it would affect Kenosha, Racine, Ozaukee, etc. Counties unless it was lake/UHI effect.

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Just now, wisconsinwx said:

Then how come only Milwaukee County was affected?  If it’s warm air adverting from the East it would affect Kenosha, Racine, Ozaukee, etc. Counties unless it was lake/UHI effect.

Look at Racine obs. They flipped to rain last night too. It was raining here in Lake County by midnight. 
 

Still don’t think tonight will work out.

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2 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

Then how come only Milwaukee County was affected?  If it’s warm air advecting from the East it would affect Kenosha, Racine, Ozaukee, etc. Counties unless it was lake/UHI effect.

Temps at MKE last night were 34-36, at ENW 35-37 and UGN 34-36.

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11 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Look at Racine obs. They flipped to rain last night too. It was raining here in Lake County by midnight. 
 

Still don’t think tonight will work out.

To be fair, there was some pretty serious evap cooling near STL last night. Temps may be a degree or two higher, but I still think somewhere between MBY and the Hillside Strangle see's 5"+

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Just now, A-L-E-K said:

10:1 with 2m temps at 33 is cute

 

major back down from the euro already

 

 

1579996800-Ff94QkX4vK8.png

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1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

zzzzzzzz^

We get it, rain for downtown. You dont need to beat that horse so badly that you are making low quality posts like this. 

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Just now, ChiTownStorm11 said:

December 26, 2009 anyone?

December 25-26 snowfall

Maybe not that high of a max but not a bad expected outcome.

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Just now, wisconsinwx said:

We know the Euro will be too high for most areas.  I think Alek has HBY well handled.

why would the euro be to high unless you're the 1% along the lake

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Just now, A-L-E-K said:

glad we agree

Yeah ignore the rest on your crusade to fit 3 winters worth of posting into one.

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Just now, UMB WX said:

why would the euro be to high unless you're the 1% along the lake

I agree that max amounts it shows of 6-7" are likely too high.

2-5" is the safer call.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

I agree that max amounts it shows of 6-7" are likely too high.

2-5" is the safer call.

Agreed, maybe a couple spots get higher with the pivot point. But you can't bank on that for everyone.

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2 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

why would the euro be to high unless you're the 1% along the lake

What Chi Storm and Stebo said, plus Alek is that 1% along the lake.  I still think you and i will probably see around 2”, making my first gut pretty good as well.

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

I agree that max amounts it shows of 6-7" are likely too high.

2-5" is the safer call.

of course most know how to interpret the snow maps and take them with a grain of salt in each event situation.   The euro paints the picture of 2-5" and the likely areas with the better chance of hitting the higher end.

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42 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

My final snow total is 3.1".  That's makes my combined wave total 6.0".

My season snow total has quietly risen to 27.4", only a few inches below the average full season total.

Very nice.  You're about 6" ahead of us.  Best event of the winter will no doubt be the 5" snow followed by the mini-ice event.

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Surface flow is actually gonna turn offshore with that surface low position north of Chicago, especially overnight.  If lakeside gets a lot less than farther west, bad def band positioning would probably be the bigger culprit.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Surface flow is actually gonna turn offshore with that surface low position north of Chicago, especially overnight.  If lakeside gets a lot less than farther west, bad def band positioning would probably be the bigger culprit.

Once that happens, that is when they will see snow and accumulations 

It isn't all rain for the 50 feet along and inland from the lake.

ecmwf-deterministic-chi-total_snow_kuchera-9996800.thumb.png.3d16498ac62d3eaf6b28917bbf334503.png

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Surface flow is actually gonna turn offshore with that surface low position north of Chicago, especially overnight.  If lakeside gets a lot less than farther west, bad def band positioning would probably be the bigger culprit.

u just gotta take a quick glance at the radar to know the euro placement is lol

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7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Gfs doing by far the best past couple events, ride it folks 

o rly.

GFSMW_prec_kuchsnow_084.png.1674bb5c8be990b234536caf11c493f2.pngeek1.png.8eb00c870bc80e3d55c1a9efd269ebc1.png

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