• Member Statistics

    15,735
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    dorkchopper
    Newest Member
    dorkchopper
    Joined
WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Considering what we're seeing on the ops now it's easy to envision the razor thin margin of error. This can all easily improve with better track/colder air etc but anyone who gets married to this "snowstorm" from long leads is setting themselves of for a disaster.

yea, too early to tell.  could be a cutter or could get squashed like the canadian.  the middle ground shows a storm with workable cold air, so that's a start.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

You have to love the gulf low and not a another system anywhere in the lower 48 .

gfs_ref_frzn_us_26.png

Give it time a low in he lakes will show up soon ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z Ukmet hr 168 has a gulf low as well . Heights in front are higher so probably a bit warmer verbatim but the takeaway is there's a lot of agreement for a strong southern system for next weekend. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

Give it time a low in he lakes will show up soon ;)

I'll take a overachieving  clipper 2 days later after our Mecs to dump a fresh 2-4" to keep our snow pack :D . I believe Jan 96' had a clipper a day later after the Hecs  then later that week another 8-10" I believe.  If only lol

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

That = no skiing in snowshoe

Too much snow?  I think that includes some snow from the upcoming week.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z GEFS continues to not like the d8-10 event. Mostly rain solutions for everyone. Gefs has a warm bias right? RIGHT?! Lol

OTOH- gefs looks really good for the next event in line. 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'll take a overachieving  clipper 2 days later after our Mecs to dump a fresh 2-4" to keep our snow pack :D . I believe Jan 96' had a clipper a day later after the Hecs  then later that week another 8-10" I believe.  If only lol

The surprise clipper on the Tuesday after the blizzard. Pulled off an un expected 4-5 inches. Not your traditional clipper if memory serves. Kind of an upper air disturbance that enhanced over our region. There were no calls for more than an inch or so I believe. Snowed for most of the day with temps in the 20's. Nothing like snow on snow and then tracking another snow that would hit 3 days later.

  • Like 3
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

The surprise clipper on the Tuesday after the blizzard. Pulled off an un expected 4-5 inches. Not your traditional clipper if memory serves. Kind of an upper air disturbance that enhanced over our region. There were no calls for more than an inch or so I believe. Snowed for most of the day with temps in the 20's. Nothing like snow on snow and then tracking another snow that would hit 3 days later.

Yeah, that week in 1996 was awesome. HECS followed by two surprising overperformers that dropped another combined 10-15. One of the better clippers I can remember.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To have Bob Ryan, who was always conservative but usually right to predict 1-2 feet before a flake fell was awesome.

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

The surprise clipper on the Tuesday after the blizzard. Pulled off an un expected 4-5 inches. Not your traditional clipper if memory serves. Kind of an upper air disturbance that enhanced over our region. There were no calls for more than an inch or so I believe. Snowed for most of the day with temps in the 20's. Nothing like snow on snow and then tracking another snow that would hit 3 days later.

I was living in College Park at the time and that band set up N/S over central MD and just kept cranking for hours.  Picked up about 6” from it, which made up for some “disappointment” that the weekend event had only amounted to 19” with all the sleet that mixed in.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I was living in College Park at the time and that band set up N/S over central MD and just kept cranking for hours.  Picked up about 6” from it, which made up for some “disappointment” that the weekend event only amounted to 19” with all the sleet that mixed in.

U only got 19" from January 6 1996? I dont recall any sleet here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

U only got 19" from January 6 1996? I dont recall any sleet here.

I definitely got some sleet at the end of the storm in the Catonsville area. I think I was close to two feet, but areas to the west definitely did better because of some mixing. It's funny people talk so much about how almost all of our big storms mix but none of our recent big storms have mixed, at least not at my house.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

U only got 19" from January 6 1996? I dont recall any sleet here.

Yep.  I was at about 300’ asl inside the Beltway a mile or so from the University of Maryland.  It sleeted much of Sunday afternoon and evening in my yard before it flipped back to wind-whipped snow late at night.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, osfan24 said:

I definitely got some sleet at the end of the storm in the Catonsville area. I think I was close to two feet, but areas to the west definitely did better because of some mixing. It's funny people talk so much about how almost all of our big storms mix but none of our recent big storms have mixed, at least not at my house.

PD2  mixed here for hours . And that was with temps like 10-13 while snowing. Would have been 30 inches probably 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Yep.  I was at about 300’ asl inside the Beltway a mile or so from the University of Maryland.  It sleeted much of Sunday afternoon and evening in my yard before it flipped back to wind-whipped snow late at night.

I'm pretty sure Baltimore was 24" . Dulles 25" or so . Definitely a local minima in your yard by the sounds of it .

Hopefully next weekend u get 20" :weenie:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I definitely got some sleet at the end of the storm in the Catonsville area. I think I was close to two feet, but areas to the west definitely did better because of some mixing. It's funny people talk so much about how almost all of our big storms mix but none of our recent big storms have mixed, at least not at my house.

Jan 16 was sleet and snizzle all morning for me. Thunder sleet at one point. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

GEFS through next weekend.  

 

 

west virginia looks great

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The 10 count was within areas east of the mountains so a general statement because location matters as usual. 

Here's the 24hr snow meteo for Gburg

tM0ksVf.png

 

Here's the qpf meteo. Lot's of big rainers in the bunch it seems. About 1/3rd have over 1" qpf. 

 

QJjRNcL.png

 

Considering what we're seeing on the ops now it's easy to envision the razor thin margin of error. This can all easily improve with better track/colder air etc but anyone who gets married to this "snowstorm" from long leads is setting themselves of for a disaster.

thanks man..i just wanted to see if the EPS agreed for the most part if there would be a big Low next weekend that produces heavy precip. We can worry about the cold in 2021

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm pretty sure Baltimore was 24" . Dulles 25" or so . Definitely a local minima in your yard by the sounds of it .

Hopefully next weekend u get 20" :weenie:

My current location was 30”+ in ‘96.  It was still a great storm where I was, given all the drifting.  But from DCA northeast through central PG County and east toward the Bay there was a stripe of sub 20” totals.

I drove to northern NJ the Thursday after the storm and was amazed at the snow depths, especially from the Susquehanna River north.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

My current location was 30”+ in ‘96.  It was still a great storm where I was, given all the drifting.  But from DCA northeast through central PG County and east toward the Bay there was a stripe of sub 20” totals.

I drove to northern NJ the Thursday after the storm and was amazed at the snow depths, especially from the Susquehanna River north.  

I think That Thursday is when we got 8-10 " in Carroll co.  Awesome week for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

PD2  mixed here for hours . And that was with temps like 10-13 while snowing. Would have been 30 inches probably 

Was that 2003? I was in College Park at the time and the storm was a bunch of sleet toward the end, but we definitely didn't get as good of a storm down there as the Baltimore area for that one. Totals were definitely lower in the DC area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, osfan24 said:

Was that 2003? I was in College Park at the time and the storm was a bunch of sleet toward the end, but we definitely didn't get as good of a storm down there as the Baltimore area for that one. Totals were definitely lower in the DC area.

Yes  Feb 2003

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Jan 16 was sleet and snizzle all morning for me. Thunder sleet at one point. 

Really? I don't remember any sleet and definitely not any thunder, but I was flirting with or in the dry slot for a lot of the morning, so it was a lot of flurries and snizzle. Then the backside finally pushed a little east and it absolutely cranked for about 4 hours or so in the afternoon. Feel like I picked up 8-10 inches of snow in the afternoon, maybe even more. Was absolutely dumping and the wind was blowing so hard you couldn't see halfway down the street. One of my favorite winter storm memories for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In February 2003 I was in Mass. for a long weekend and had to stay over in Leominster and wait for the storm to pass. I’ll never forget coming home to Maryland. It was like a bomb had hit. Lanes on 695 were not plowed. Crazy stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.