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Snowstorms

January 17-18 Winter Storm

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

They are what this storm system is probably going to end up being... WWA criteria event.

Going Big:wub:

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5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

call gonna go down in flames like the ISC 3-6

WAA criteria event is pretty easy to attain...guaranteed lock.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

WAA criteria event is pretty easy to attain...guaranteed lock.

Warm air advection crisis storm is easy to attain

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Currently leaning toward 2-3" on the front end here.  If it comes in under that, then this winter truly does suck.  Even the above total would pretty much make it my biggest snow of the season... pretty sad.

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Also took a step towards the GFS with the surface trough extending into MN. All but assures a fairly swift transition to rain for many. I think this is the most likely solution. MN/WI continue to look golden though.

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

Euro is looking more like the GFS now.  Is the GFS really going to win again?  It already did best for the last two bigger events.

I'll throw in the towel when the CMC caves tonight at 00z

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31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Currently leaning toward 2-3" on the front end here.  If it comes in under that, then this winter truly does suck.  Even the above total would pretty much make it my biggest snow of the season... pretty sad.

2-3" is what I'm expecting here as well.

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1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

:raining: spring can’t come soon enough at this point 

It isn't here yet? Honestly one of the more mild winters I've seen temperature wise. Would not be shocked at all to see this be a backloaded winter though, it has all the hallmarks of that happening

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1 minute ago, nwohweather said:

It isn't here yet? Honestly one of the more mild winters I've seen temperature wise. Would not be shocked at all to see this be a backloaded winter though, it has all the hallmarks of that happening

2011-12, 2012-13 and 2015-16 were worse up until now. 

 

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Lol euro isn't even advisory criteria here. Garbage storm not worth wasting time on. Hope it just rains instead.

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at least last weekend's storm had 50's the day before and 30's and 40's the days after.   below normal temps right before and after for this one.  cool

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Good spread on the SREF as you'd expect.  There are some solid advisory snows in there for N IL though. 

Yeah looked at DKB earlier. 3" mean with nice 4-6" cluster. 

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Currently leaning toward 2-3" on the front end here.  If it comes in under that, then this winter truly does suck.  Even the above total would pretty much make it my biggest snow of the season... pretty sad.

It sucks anyway just due to banking on a barely grass-covering snow that's just gonna get washed away by a cold rain.

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10 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

It sucks anyway just due to banking on a barely grass-covering snow that's just gonna get washed away by a cold rain.

If we can lay down a few inches with a period of sleet, there may be a chance to glacier it over pretty well especially if the low trends farther south to keep the warm-up a bit in check.  That's what happened on 12/28/15... that sleet was followed by a lot of plain rain which really hardened it up instead of melting it all.  I'm not as big on retaining snowpack as some here but it has gotten a little ridiculous.  Would be nice to actually look like winter for more than a day.  

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

What is this weird looking tongue of dry air in between the 2 more moist ones?

850rh.us_mw.thumb.png.7b7a5383ad94b09141105e01e3e85aa5.png

The 06z GFS was showing something similar, but I don't have a clue.

EDIT: My bad, that's the 12z

Screenshot_2020-01-14 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png

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18z NAM is hitting the ice.  But again, gotta take the freezing rain maps with a grain of salt especially when rates are higher.  

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