• Member Statistics

    16,542
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    BobbyB
    Newest Member
    BobbyB
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Rtd208

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Ant,  how long has the pattern looked to become colder?,  and please don’t take this as a shot to you or anyone  because I love the cold and snow I thrive on it but it doesn’t seem likely 

Bro it’s going to snow! Just let it play out it’s not about pattern it will snow. Just my 2 satoshis

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Bro it’s going to snow! Just let it play out it’s not about pattern it will snow. Just my 2 satoshis

None of us really knows, not even the most diligent scholars of this stuff, but I would never bet against any snow in the metro area this early. By the end of Feb I might make the bet, but the last two years I would have lost...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I guess he's never heard of a backloaded winter. Winter of 2015/16 anyone?

 think you mean 2014/15, the winter of the nickel and dime events which totaled 50 some inches.....15/16 was one big storm in Jan. and one small one in Feb. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Strong sea breeze forced an early High for the day of 63* for me at 11:15am.       Spent the PM between 53-55.

NB:    The GEM has a foot of snow here in exactly one week, with the potential for 35", since the available LE is 3.5"         With all sorts of crazy SD's floating around for various atmospheric parameters---this could just be another one the GEM has sniffed out before the other models.      Or maybe it is just snorting things out.   Try that w/o the letter 'n'  LOL!

This is what happens when the primary is forced to redevelop south of us because of some blocking - if the previous mid week low acts as a 50/50 this is still a possibility - but an outlier right now

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This is what happens when the primary is forced to redevelop south of us because of some blocking - if the previous mid week low acts as a 50/50 this is still a possibility - but an outlier right now

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.pnggem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_28.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This is what happens when the primary is forced to redevelop south of us because of some blocking - if the previous mid week low acts as a 50/50 this is still a possibility - but an outlier right now

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

Yea thats a miracle, I would take what the 18Z GFS showed

 

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

 

It's got a chance, if nothing else the high in place should allow for front end snow, if the blocking is strong enough to force redevelopment well to our south then it's a big storm, if not it's snow/ice to rain.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This is what happens when the primary is forced to redevelop south of us because of some blocking - if the previous mid week low acts as a 50/50 this is still a possibility - but an outlier right now

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

Still rain for 2/3rd of us if I am reading correctly 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Ant,  how long has the pattern looked to become colder?,  and please don’t take this as a shot to you or anyone  because I love the cold and snow I thrive on it but it doesn’t seem likely 

What indications are you seeing that its going to be a warm winter the rest of the way ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Still rain for 2/3rd of us if I am reading correctly 

My guess is that is at or close to its peak warmth given snowfall totals but yea you can definitely see from the snowfall map the gradient is right over the city. This will change many times anyway in the next week  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Still rain for 2/3rd of us if I am reading correctly 

Next weekend is going to cut into the lakes. If we can get a cold high pressure with some cad perhaps it starts as some snow. I would keep expectations in check with that one. The better patterns starts after next weekend 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Next weekend is going to cut into the lakes. If we can get a cold high pressure with some cad perhaps it starts as some snow. I would keep expectations in check with that one. The better patterns starts after next weekend 

The primary is likely going near or to the lakes, the question is the secondary development, I agree I would lean this is a snow to rain event at best.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Honestly that front end bout could give us more snow than anything we've seen this winter. 

Airmass is quite cold so a CAD like inversion wouldn't surprise me and neither would a southward primary adjustment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, BlizzardNYC said:

I don’t know about anyone else, but the pattern has been lock in since early December, and I don’t expect a snowy forecast to prevail. My reasoning is as follows. We have had less than a nickel and dime event in early / mid November. We have since warmed early dec through January. We now face record warmth in early to mid January. Looking at the long range it appears you can not trust anything past D5 and the models look warm through-out with a front end thump followed by rain. Listen  I love snow but the writing is on the wall and it’s happening n durning solar minimum.

Simplistic, but valid points

cold or warm, the pattern isnt there for the NYC metro to get snow. It has been like that for a year.

My parents live in Whitestone. They have not had any appreciable snow on the ground that lasted more than a day or two coming up on 2 years

 

Last year, even the November storm was gone in less than 24 hours. They had a light accumulation in March that stuck around for a few days

 

Lost in snow totals that get washed away, is the fact that most of NYC has not had prolonged snow cover since March 2018.

 

That is a terrible pattern. And it shows no signs of changing

  • Confused 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Simplistic, but valid points

cold or warm, the pattern isnt there for the NYC metro to get snow. It has been like that for a year.

My parents live in Whitestone. They have not had any appreciable snow on the ground that lasted more than a day or two coming up on 2 years

 

Last year, even the November storm was gone in less than 24 hours. They had a light accumulation in March that stuck around for a few days

 

Lost in snow totals that get washed away, is the fact that most of NYC has not had prolonged snow cover since March 2018.

 

That is a terrible pattern. And it shows no signs of changing

This is hyperbolic - you’re essentially griping about 4 consecutive winter months  - Dec-Feb last hear and Dec this year without sustained snow cover.

Do you realize how many times such a stretch has occurred in NYC in its history?

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is another case of the SE ridge surpassing expectations in situations that allow for it. While not as extreme as what happened in February 2018, this is close to the record 500 mb height for January at OKX.

Got in on the 00Z ob.

760730215_ScreenShot2020-01-11at10_20_50PM.thumb.png.3cb44aaee80f5f6a3c9185e3f420ca26.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, danstorm said:

This is hyperbolic - you’re essentially griping about 4 consecutive winter months  - Dec-Feb last hear and Dec this year without sustained snow cover.

Do you realize how many times such a stretch has occurred in NYC in its history?

I do....saw a lot of them. Never with this much warmth and so sustained though. 80's were paltry, but not this warm.70's weren't great either. And neither were most of the 90's. We've had a good run from 2001-2016, with a few lean years in there. Been meh ever since for a lot of us. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

That is a terrible pattern. And it shows no signs of changing

Then you clearly aren't paying any attention.

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is wild for next weekend, storm starts out below freezing with 2-4 inches of snow (6+ for the northern suburbs) and then NYC/LI end up in the 50s.

Then gets really cold behind the storm, this may be the pattern changer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I do....saw a lot of them. Never with this much warmth and so sustained though. 80's were paltry, but not this warm.70's weren't great either. And neither were most of the 90's. We've had a good run from 2001-2016, with a few lean years in there. Been meh ever since for a lot of us. 

It's only been 1 winter and 1 month that has been awful after many good years in a row.

At least in terms of referring to snowfall but personally I don't mind the warmth that much, I really care mainly about snow amounts rather than sustained cold (it's fairly rare to have a sustained snowpack at the coast anyway)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Simplistic, but valid points

cold or warm, the pattern isnt there for the NYC metro to get snow. It has been like that for a year.

My parents live in Whitestone. They have not had any appreciable snow on the ground that lasted more than a day or two coming up on 2 years

 

Last year, even the November storm was gone in less than 24 hours. They had a light accumulation in March that stuck around for a few days

 

Lost in snow totals that get washed away, is the fact that most of NYC has not had prolonged snow cover since March 2018.

 

That is a terrible pattern. And it shows no signs of changing

No sign of changing ? What are you looking at ?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

No sign of changing ? What are you looking at ?

Must be a D10 gfs run... give it a break already pattern has been locked in since the beginning of December. Stevie wonder saw this coming!!!!

  • Confused 1
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

No sign of changing ? What are you looking at ?

We could also go into a cold-cutter-cold pattern too like the GFS shows.

That's the risk you run without blocking. Still thinking the sustained cold/snow pattern waits until February with shades of 14/15 showing up.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.