• Member Statistics

    15,757
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Chicago12
    Newest Member
    Chicago12
    Joined
jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The Feb 1st storm looks even better! Track closer to the coast, still no cold air! A nice Miller A , in late Jan/Early Feb, and we rain

It comes with the territory when you’ve got a juiced up STJ. Rain, and lots of it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Anyone have GEFS ensemble members snow totals?

GEFS only out to hr234, but there is one beefer that matches the ICON...  

(and will make [mention=7528]mackerel_sky[/mention] cry)

 

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Fellas, I don't remember seeing the Ukie model mentioned a single time this year; do you guys ever look at it anymore? 
Hasn't updated since the 21st

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS is closer than you’d think to a snowier solution along 40. HKY/INT/GSO is just about a degree away from a potentially wet snow. That is well within error range.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12z Euro has the storm as well. But it’s slower with the system and the warmest model right now. Lots of time for adjustments. I’m just glad we have a system all the global models are picking up on. Might be the first time this season. Lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are several times in the last few runs where big things could happen, I think we cash in,  maybe even a few times...

This is so close to being a big deal for most of NC...

dec7c572-1907-49cd-a7ee-69c6228b5b79.thumb.gif.df6b797aadac224bf9fe7e6aa6fb8da2.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12z EURO is a 34 degree cold rain in mby , with heavy snow and 32 degrees just to the northwest... still time to hopefully get a little more cold weather. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The 12z EURO is a 34 degree cold rain in mby , with heavy snow and 32 degrees just to the northwest... still time to hopefully get a little more cold weather. 

Both the GFS and Euro were very close to being a big event. I like where we are currently. Lots of time for adjustments... hopefully colder adjustments. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

The GFS is closer than you’d think to a snowier solution along 40. HKY/INT/GSO is just about a degree away from a potentially wet snow. That is well within error range.

Feels like we always error to a degree warmer than shown and end with 33/34 rain...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

It is just ensemble number 6, but it lines up with the CMC/ICON but more juiced (and yes Mack you get in on the dinner)

 

https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GEFS/2020012512/SE/GEFSSE_prec_snens_210.png

 

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting member. I would be curious to see the storm setup for that member. The only way far western upstate (Oconee/Pickens) and NEGA can bullseye like that is with an intensifying storm that tracks too far West to give the 1-77 or I-95 corridors much, and tracks up the coast (Noreaster). Think Jan 96 or even March 93. Its probably the most unlikely scenario and yet it's bascially the only one that gives that area anything. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z ICON looked like it was heading for another good run , but 18z only runs to 120 hrs.

H5 definitely different from 12z.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

In a good way or bad way?

Hard to say. More consolidation imo at h5. 

18z icon_z500_vort_us_41.png

12zicon_z500_vort_us_43.png

 

Very evident 3 pieces of energy icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

There is nothing to see next weekend outside the mountains folks. Where would it get colder air from?  A phase? Good luck with that in the se and maintain a favorable track.

You know, it’ll make its own cold air!

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...