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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Yea, the cold comes back maybe by hour 360. What could go wrong?

That’s 4.5 days after the map you posted. So yes, that’s pretty quick rebuilding of the cold. 
 

But we will see....

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1 minute ago, msuwx said:

That’s 4.5 days after the map you posted. So yes, that’s pretty quick rebuilding of the cold. 
 

But we will see....

And his map is an op model. Not sure anyone can make a case for their point on a 10 day op.

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Day 10 of the Euro certainly doesn't look like the cold is rebuilding quickly..
850t_anom.conus.thumb.png.6b6e29cacca7d9be5738b942faceab01.png 
You can't even take the EURO OP at face value anymore, there is a reason there is a "mean" on the ensembles (which the OP is part of). All you seem to be trying to sniff out is a "snowy pattern", but ALL of us here on the board want it. However, after the absolute blowtorch the last three weeks have been, the more seasonal temps are fully welcomed by us. I'm not panicking about nothing, I'm just waiting on my cold air.

Besides, golden rule is "stronger high pressure push, more suppression", we can always have one or the other but it is extremely rare to get both simultaneously in our region of the US to create a 73 or 89 repeat. Take the cold air first, then we look to Fab Feb for the pattern to crank into gear.

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Are you not disappointed by the way next week seems to be evolving? The cold is nothing extraordinary and transient. It then turns back into a zonal pattern late in the week with more rain. Not what everyone was saying a few days ago.. The MJO has to be part of the reasoning. 

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

You can't even take the EURO OP at face value anymore, there is a reason there is a "mean" on the ensembles (which the OP is part of). All you seem to be trying to sniff out is a "snowy pattern", but ALL of us here on the board want it. However, after the absolute blowtorch the last three weeks have been, the more seasonal temps are fully welcomed by us. I'm not panicking about nothing, I'm just waiting on my cold air.

Besides, golden rule is "stronger high pressure push, more suppression", we can always have one or the other but it is extremely rare to get both simultaneously in our region of the US to create a 73 or 89 repeat. Take the cold air first, then we look to Fab Feb for the pattern to crank into gear.

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

 

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

And his map is an op model. Not sure anyone can make a case for their point on a 10 day op.

I posted the EPS earlier and will do so again when i see the new run. It was showing similar results to the op last night

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Are you not disappointed by the way next week seems to be evolving? The cold is nothing extraordinary and transient. It then turns back into a zonal pattern late in the week with more rain. Not what everyone was saying a few days ago.. The MJO has to be part of the reasoning. 
There was also a volcano that erupted in the Philippines (which can screw with the MJO due to how far an ash cloud can spread: look at Pinatubo in 93), besides we live in the southeast, so disappointment is the norm.

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Kinda resembles a nino like pattern with the ridge in Canada.  Decent chance that can be a snow event for climate favored areas. This is also a day 10 storm.

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Just now, franklin NCwx said:

Kinda resembles a nino like pattern with the ridge in Canada.  Decent chance that can be a snow event for climate favored areas. This is also a day 10 storm.

The subtropical jet has been nino like all winter. 

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

 

I posted the EPS earlier and will do so again when i see the new run. It was showing similar results to the op last night

It's cold after that energy traverses the country. That piece could easily get forced under the ridge building to our north. We are in prime climo. Won't take too much for that to work out for us.

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Just now, wncsnow said:

The subtropical jet has been nino like all winter. 

It has at times, and lately it's been more of a response to the west coast trough. The ridge in central and eastern Canada is something we have not seen.

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Just now, franklin NCwx said:

It's cold after that energy traverses the country. That piece could easily get forced under the ridge building to our north. We are in prime climo. Won't take too much for that to work out for us.

I'm glad you are hopeful because I know you are knowledgeable. 

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I posted the EPS earlier and will do so again when i see the new run. It was showing similar results to the op last night

Even for me (I live further south than you) my mean average from the 0z EPS at days 11-15 was a high of 48 and a low of 38...

 

I'll take that over 68/50 any day of the week

 

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Just now, wncsnow said:

I'm glad you are hopeful because I know you are knowledgeable. 

Thanks, it's just something to watch it could end up as another rain event. But its 10 days away and that's a setup that could easily trend colder the wave is forced under us. We will also have a retreating Arctic air mass before so it's not like we're above average hoping for a front to come in just in time.

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It's obviously a bit disappointing, I think most of us here are all wishing for the same thing. But ultimately the trends we are seeing are things we all should have expected. The pattern next week never truly favored winter weather with the way things were on the Atlantic side with the fast flow exit off the coast. The 21st wave looked the best at first but it was always going to be a late bloomer in that setup. And IMO that ones still alive for coastal folks with a bit of NW trend. Both ensembles fully agree on there being nothing more than a short moderation between cold shots, mostly driven by the warm front on that storm being shown as a cutter right now. If the secondary cold stops showing up, well then it's probably time to panic. 

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Day 10 of the Euro certainly doesn't look like the cold is rebuilding quickly..
850t_anom.conus.thumb.png.6b6e29cacca7d9be5738b942faceab01.png 
Also, go look at the 2m temp maps for the Mid-Atlantic on the ECMWF Hi-Res on Pivotal (which also covers both Carolinas, Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama), it is temps in the upper 30s for Western NC, and temps 50s towards the coast at hr240 (same timestamp as that 850mb temp anomaly pic)

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct&rh=2020011512&fh=240&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=

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2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Also, go look at the 2m temp maps for the Mid-Atlantic on the ECMWF Hi-Res on Pivotal (which also covers both Carolinas, Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama), it is temps in the upper 30s for Western NC, and temps 50s towards the coast at hr240 (same timestamp as that 850mb temp anomaly pic)

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct&rh=2020011512&fh=240&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=

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I saw that, it has a mid to upper 30s rain event for most of WNC so its close, but 850 temps are warm. 

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I saw that, it has a mid to upper 30s rain event for most of WNC so its close, but 850 temps are warm. 
32by the mountains, 33-36 across the CAD regions on the 850mb temp, so maybe a token flake or two mixed in

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Sure would be nice to have some COLD air around..

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus (1).png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Yep, it warms up when there is moisture in the air. :axe:

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18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

A lot of folks are disappointed right now but with the consistent cold coming , and it can't be denied,  it is coming , it's only a matter of time when the moisture/cold link up. Patience is key. Let's not lose that key!

I'm waiting on the 3-5 day window on the models to throw us something:snowwindow:

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I've been watching the CFS, GEFS, and GEPS for days now, and they have been showing a pretty good pattern evolving late in their respective runs.  Even the EPS has show a decent evolution, albeit it has been steadfast on no -EPO.  I have been watching the Euro Op for the last few days at the end of its range, and it hasn't looked very good, for the most part.  It's shown pretty much what we're most likely going to see next week...a semi-zonal, fast flow with snapshot, transient cold.  And it continues to drop the PV across the pond.

The GEFS, GEPS, CFS, and even today's EPS continue to look good at the end of their runs.  But this 10-15 day cold pattern that stays 10-5 days away sure is getting old.  The fact that we're getting no consistent hints of blocking (AO/NAO) continues to be a problem for us.  That doesn't look to change any time soon.  The EPO?  Maybe.  But I'm not excited by the MJO developments over the last couple of days.  We need blocking to return.  Really bad.

I was really excited about entering a colder (as in wintry) pattern over the last few days, but that's waning a little.  The 10-15 day cold pattern has got to work inside of that time frame.  At least it's going to be a bit more seasonal.  It will still be wet, so the rain won't be as warm.  Maybe north and western areas can time something out, as well as (just shoot me) the Outer Banks, until we actually get some legitimate cold in here with some staying power.  Hopefully, that will take shape earlier in February than later.  But I'm kind of disappointed in the way things have developed.  But unfortunately, I'm not surprised.

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Interestingly enough, the EPS run looks extremely similar to late November, Early December 2018 (Timeframe where we got our December storm). Sure I'm cherry-picking a couple of maps, but almost identical look if we were to raise the height over Canada. To be clear the 2 maps from 2018 are not the same forecast period from two different models.

.ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0169600.thumb.png.4e2ceef968496babdf5792e5ebc7ab3c.pngBCDCE723-3DC6-4AA5-849F-1D898AA90273.thumb.png.0940343e97905fb2d680d5f9fd41e4e6.png040B5490-6847-4991-9EFF-C9AF3F55B133.thumb.png.128a74378c359ca314e928cfc52aa710.png 

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I think there are still ways to get next weekends storm to work for favored climo areas. It's just a matter of how things trend as we get into range. 

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10 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I think there are still ways to get next weekends storm to work for favored climo areas. It's just a matter of how things trend as we get into range. 

It’s working on 18z! Mega ice storm for CAD regions on the 25th!! More south than the last run! NC /SC crush job! Y’all post them pretty maps!

 

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