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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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17 hours ago, griteater said:

Just watching the ensemble model runs, this -AO/-NAO looks and feels legit.  I'm sure it will wax and wane, but I think the signal is more real this time than normal.  The near constant ridging in NW Asia with corresponding troughing in E Asia / NW Pacific is a configuration that will continually attack the stratospheric polar vortex and lend support to the tropospheric high latitude blocking.  I think we will eventually see an official SSW, but it make take some time (late Jan?)...and the chances of the SSW yielding favorable results are better when the troposphere and lower stratosphere are already experiencing blocking and are weaker than normal.  The ideal scenario would be for the tropospheric blocking to continue well into January, then we get the SSW that gives it an additional kick - it's not a far fetched scenario this time.

Thanks Grit. I sure hope the convection leaving the Indian Ocean does work on the Pacific.  We desperately need the -EPO for cold even with the solid -NAO. I think at best we're seasonal to cool with the pattern that's setting itself up. At worst, below the 12Z GEFS. Western trough and the southeast ridge is poking up later in the run. :yikes:

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_53.png

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59 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Tennessee man...3f51e8079e0d8d55502fb3712c3d6edf.jpg

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

I don’t know about what’s going to happen for sure on or around January 3 but for right now it is 34 and a heavy sleet rain mix going on in Dallas Georgia and I do see a few flakes of snow. so the transition has begun in earnest. Might not be much or last long but, my seven and 10-year-old are having a ball just watching the sleet bounce around. I know that sounds weak but... hey we are in the south, the deep south that that. any little bit we can get Is much appreciate it... Especially for the kiddos !!

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2 minutes ago, Buckfever2 said:

I don’t know about what’s going to happen for sure on or around January 3 but for right now it is 34 and a heavy sleet rain mix going on in Dallas Georgia and I do see a few flakes of snow. so the transition has begun in earnest. Might not be much or last long but, my seven and 10-year-old are having a ball just watching the sleet bounce around. I know that sounds weak but... hey we are in the south, the deep south that that. any little bit we can get Is much appreciate it... Especially for the kiddos !!

It sounds absolutely perfect :wub:  I’m glad the kids are enjoying it and bringing smiles to everyone’s faces ^_^

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8 minutes ago, Buckfever2 said:

I don’t know about what’s going to happen for sure on or around January 3 but for right now it is 34 and a heavy sleet rain mix going on in Dallas Georgia and I do see a few flakes of snow. so the transition has begun in earnest. Might not be much or last long but, my seven and 10-year-old are having a ball just watching the sleet bounce around. I know that sounds weak but... hey we are in the south, the deep south that that. any little bit we can get Is much appreciate it... Especially for the kiddos !!

Look I'm down in Savannah I lose my mind when we get flurries lol

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17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GFS still showing accumulating snow east of the mountains.... its either wacko , or its on to something... its been fairly consistent.
 

It’s out to lunch.  I might see flakes flying around at midnight, but no way that verifies.  I have no business looking at the GFS this late anyway.

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