BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 NAM is about 75 miles north this run at hour 69(75 at 12z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 18z NAM will be a good run for Southern VA , Northern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, BornAgain13 said: 18z NAM will be a good run for Southern VA , Northern NC It’s good for entire state of NC. Maybe even upstate SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 WowSent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The 18z NAM is a Carolina Crusher! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Well, at least we got nammed once this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 On the NAM, the shortwave over the Great Lakes bumped north, allowing the storm and precip to climb north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Well we knew the NW trend would come at some point. Hope it’s not too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 12km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, griteater said: 12km NAM Sure would be nice if all the models head this way.... need some consensus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 12km NAM Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, griteater said: 12km NAM It should be noted that this is the last frame of the NAM so lots of snow still to go....so totals could be several inches higher than this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 NAM says there is some sleet with this system in my backyard. Where is this 800mb warmnose coming from? Valid 1pm Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 18z NAM showing 30MPH gusts around Durham on that last frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: It should be noted that this is the last frame of the NAM so lots of snow still to go....so totals could be several inches higher than this... Yeah, 700 and 850 levels still maxed out at 100% at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Not sure what GSP is seeing. Looks like a max of a dusting for Greenville-Spartanburg. Get rid of that sleet profile and then we will be be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, BullCityWx said: 18z NAM showing 30MPH gusts around Durham on that last frame. Oh you silly NAM It's a 2 for 1 and everyone wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: NAM says there is some sleet with this system in my backyard. Where is this 800mb warmnose coming from? Valid 1pm Thursday. And GSP says no warm nose. Lol. Lots of pieces left to solve with this puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just as an observation from a few previous winters, the 12K NAM's surface output often seems a bit odd and tends to overdo the QPF in quantity and spread it out over a massive region. I've hunted verification scores at 500 and surface between the different resolutions of the NAM, but I have not found any. 3KM NAM should give us more clarity once it is in range, I'm wary of this 12KM output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD HPA M C C DEG M/S E = Estimated Surface Height 1011. 149. -0.7 -1.4 34.5 4.1 1000. 234. -1.7 -2.2 37.7 6.3 975. 435. -3.4 -4.0 43.4 9.9 950. 640. -4.8 -5.6 46.1 11.6 925. 849. -4.4 -5.2 56.2 12.8 900. 1065. -4.4 -5.2 54.3 12.0 875. 1287. -5.2 -6.1 50.8 11.3 850. 1514. -5.8 -6.9 44.6 9.8 825. 1748. -6.5 -7.6 40.3 9.0 800. 1988. -6.6 -7.6 22.3 7.3 775. 2237. -4.8 -5.3 269.8 2.5 750. 2497. -1.9 -2.3 216.3 15.2 725. 2767. -1.6 -2.0 239.2 23.7 700. 3046. -2.4 -2.9 245.1 28.4 650. 3631. -5.7 -6.5 245.8 27.7 600. 4254. -9.7 -11.0 245.8 25.0 550. 4921. -12.9 -14.5 242.2 31.0 500. 5642. -16.9 -18.8 252.3 33.3 450. 6426. -21.4 -23.7 250.4 36.6 400. 7283. -27.5 -30.2 254.3 38.9 350. 8231. -34.6 -37.7 258.6 44.8 300. 9285. -43.5 -48.9 256.4 48.6 250. 10493. -49.8 -66.6 270.3 61.0 200. 11936. -54.1 -68.5 278.4 77.8 150. 13749. -60.4 -79.0 284.9 74.7 100. 16264. -63.2 -86.3 268.6 40.7 50. 20540. -60.6 -86.7 280.9 15.1 Wow, that sounding for hour 72 aint even close. Solidly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD HPA M C C DEG M/S E = Estimated Surface Height 1012. 149. -1.2 -1.9 20.6 5.1 1000. 242. -2.1 -2.7 22.8 8.2 975. 442. -3.6 -4.2 27.9 12.9 950. 647. -4.3 -5.1 35.8 16.3 925. 857. -4.0 -4.9 42.5 16.3 900. 1073. -4.9 -5.9 40.8 16.0 875. 1294. -5.7 -6.7 41.3 14.8 850. 1521. -6.3 -7.4 39.3 12.9 825. 1754. -7.0 -8.2 38.3 10.3 800. 1994. -7.6 -8.8 33.6 7.9 775. 2241. -7.0 -8.0 352.1 3.7 750. 2498. -5.0 -5.8 232.3 7.0 725. 2765. -4.5 -5.1 201.6 12.8 700. 3041. -5.2 -5.8 219.2 13.8 650. 3623. -5.8 -6.3 196.9 29.3 600. 4247. -9.2 -10.1 226.1 26.8 550. 4914. -13.6 -15.0 244.8 25.3 500. 5632. -18.0 -19.9 257.0 28.0 450. 6412. -23.1 -25.6 259.6 32.5 400. 7264. -29.3 -46.7 265.8 38.4 350. 8203. -36.3 -57.4 264.5 45.3 300. 9256. -42.3 -66.3 268.0 51.1 250. 10475. -46.8 -67.7 271.2 67.1 200. 11936. -52.5 -71.8 276.1 77.0 150. 13758. -60.0 -79.7 281.4 73.9 100. 16263. -63.0 -86.1 280.2 41.5 50. 20547. -62.0 -87.7 283.3 15.2 Hour 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Good trends so far today guys... the EPS and NAM both trended in the right direction... if only we could get the GFS and CANADIAN on board... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 32 minutes ago, griteater said: On the NAM, the shortwave over the Great Lakes bumped north, allowing the storm and precip to climb north Cold temps going north too, or we still good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Lock that one in . Nice frontogenisis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Looks like NAM is liking the coastal bomb idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, eyewall said: Lock that one in . Nice frontogenisis OMG yes! That has to be the best looking slider I have seen on paper It's been awhile since everyone was NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The 18z ICON was pretty amped.. , brings a decent swath of snow to southern VA , and North and North eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 18z NAM has to be viewed as an outlier at this point but bears watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 18z ICONSent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Did I miss anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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