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Zelocita Weather

Possible frontal wave snow

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28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

These storms usually get  juicier as we get near.  Watch out for that. 

Ok Ant, I'll bite. Is this going to be a winter of nickel and dime events? We'll take it I guess. 

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8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Ok Ant, I'll bite. Is this going to be a winter of nickel and dime events? We'll take it I guess. 

I think so

Better than last December so far :)

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The 18z RDPS (regional Canadian) shows between 0.3 and 0.6 frozen across most of the area.  This is a similar depiction but maybe a notch wetter than the NAM and GFS.  The GDPS is slightly drier and further east with the boundary.  The 18z ICON is SE and dry (not enthused) and the 12z UK was pretty wet (QPF).

I think the best chance for accumulating snow will be near or just after daybreak as surface temperatures finally approach freezing.  This looks like a general coating to 3" or so, depending on location.  But I also think someone has a shot at 4"+.  It could be a surprisingly snowy Wednesday morning.  Not a blockbuster but 2-3" in a few hours can create a very wintry appeal.

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1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The 18z RDPS (regional Canadian) shows between 0.3 and 0.6 frozen across most of the area.  This is a similar depiction but maybe a notch wetter than the NAM and GFS.  The GDPS is slightly drier and further east with the boundary.  The 18z ICON is SE and dry (not enthused) and the 12z UK was pretty wet (QPF).

I think the best chance for accumulating snow will be near or just after daybreak as surface temperatures finally approach freezing.  This looks like a general coating to 3" or so, depending on location.  But I also think someone has a shot at 4"+.  It could be a surprisingly snowy Wednesday morning.  Not a blockbuster but 2-3" in a few hours can create a very wintry appeal.

Yea probably someone just NW of the I95 corridor will have the best shot at 4+ where theres enough cold air and enough precip

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Lot of moving parts to this. Difficult to be confident here in a snow forecast three days out.

Fortunately I don't have to drive anywhere Wednesday morning, so can consider the outcome with equanimity. 

 

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17 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Only shows an inch or two around the city?

NAMMA_prec_snow_084.png.b7a4459a5254f91c08ceb50220d90a7b.png

snow down to Atlantic City ... temps crash that hard?

 

10 am Weds

NAMMA_sfc_temp_063.png.b12caa45dc51fec13a3bb864b5878f33.png

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2-4 for NYC on the Kuchera GFS maps with more towards LI.

I like 2-4 for the area. I wouldn't be shocked if we see less or even more. Depends how fast the front comes through. 

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This feels like the Dec 24, 1997 or 1998 snowfall. It was a nice little event, but we had more cold air to work with.

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The 0z RDPS is wet and cold - even better than 18z.  It suggests 2-6" regionwide with some sleet to start.  Gotta hedge lower at this point but confidence in a snow event is increasing.

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2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 0z RDPS is wet and cold - even better than 18z.  It suggests 2-6" regionwide with some sleet to start.  Gotta hedge lower at this point but confidence in a snow event is increasing.

It has about 14mm. Looks really good.

Keep expectations in check but these can bust in a good way as we saw in the past.

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20 minutes ago, Enigma said:

This feels like the Dec 24, 1997 or 1998 snowfall. It was a nice little event, but we had more cold air to work with.

1998.  That was more of a vort and weak surface low though as was the 2014 post Super Bowl event.  11/29/95 might be closer 

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Euro isnt that impressive 

If the euro isn’t on board, it’s usually game Over. I can see the other models trend towards the euro today. 

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2 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

If the euro isn’t on board, it’s usually game Over. I can see the other models trend towards the euro today. 

Not true anymore. Euro isnt what it was back in the day. 

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