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Zelocita Weather

Possible frontal wave snow

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33 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

NAM now 2-4/3-5 pretty much region wide...

nam_namer_084_precip_p24.gif

This is precip that falls as snow, some of which is with 850s @ -6F or cooler

This can be a few inches for the city if the front can come through slightly faster with more precip. Nam was good.

1-3/2-4 for the city right now but it's not impossible for more. Too early yet to determine.

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Front came through faster on the gfs which resulted in colder temps but weaker precip. The heaviest precip was along the coast.  Let's get Nams precip and gfs temps and we will be golden.

 

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I think these setups along semi-stalled steep thermal gradients can be sneaky productive.  They can yield bands of moderate snow training over the same area.  More often than not they disappear beyond 48 hours out.  But inside two days, from memory they often spread precip further NW than modeled (at least as modeled during the post 2000 period).

Looks like short to moderate duration.  And right now you have to favor areas with some elevation just inland - not necessarily far NW.  The southern s/w will likely pump some more moisture into the deep south than expected, but how much of that translates up the coast is unclear.  The southern s/w is dampening and not really involved as a local weather producer.  It would be nice if it traversed eastward a little faster and we could buckle the 500mb flow slightly and get a bit more surface reflection along the coast.  Of course depending on where the boundary sets up, that could halt the cold slightly too far NW of the coastal cities.

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NE guys are spoiled and in pack-protecting mode.  So naturally they are not particularly excited about a modest threat book ended by likely rainers.  But for this forum, especially this time of year, this is a legitimately trackable threat.  For many many years in this area, 4" was considered a solid, plowable snowfall.  And there is a chance, albeit low, to hit that threshold somewhere in the region early Wednesday morning.

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43 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Surprised this thread is dead

Probably because this will likely just be an event for colder surfaces. It's going to be in the 60s on tuesday with rain so roads are going to be VERY warm and wet. Very difficult to get much accumulation on roads that are retaining warmth and when temps are barely down to freezing. The last event I had almost 3 hours of 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates from late morning to early afternoon with a temp of 33 degrees, but I only got a little slushy dusting on roads and didn't even have to shovel. You really need the temp to fall to freezing or below if roads and pavement are very warm. Right now this event is looking similar with temps likely falling to 33 to 35 during the snow wednesday morning, so it probably won't be a high impact event. That said, if the models are right we could get a couple inches on colder surfaces. It would certainly be very nice to see 1 to 3 inches on car tops and grass, so I'm definitely interested in this event. Any accumulating snow is interesting to me, even if it doesn't have much of an impact on travel. Of course northwest of our area where it will be colder, there's a better chance of seeing some accumulation on pavement. But I don't expect that to happen for central Jersey to NYC.

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3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Probably because this will likely just be an event for colder surfaces. It's going to be in the 60s on tuesday with rain so roads are going to be VERY warm and wet. Very difficult to get much accumulation on roads that are retaining warmth and when temps are barely down to freezing. The last event I had almost 3 hours of 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates from late morning to early afternoon with a temp of 33 degrees, but I only got a little slushy dusting on roads and didn't even have to shovel. You really need the temp to fall to freezing or below if roads and pavement are very warm. Right now this event is looking similar with temps likely falling to 33 to 35 during the snow wednesday morning, so it probably won't be a high impact event. That said, if the models are right we could get a couple inches on colder surfaces. It would certainly be very nice to see 1 to 3 inches on car tops and grass, so I'm definitely interested in this event. Any accumulating snow is interesting to me, even if it doesn't have much of an impact on travel. Of course northwest of our area where it will be colder, there's a better chance of seeing some accumulation on pavement. But I don't expect that to happen for central Jersey to NYC.

First of all we are getting this snow during the night hours and pre dawn, secondly it’ll be coming down at a great clip, thirdly it hasn’t happened so we don’t know if it will indeed will happen!

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23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Probably because this will likely just be an event for colder surfaces. It's going to be in the 60s on tuesday with rain so roads are going to be VERY warm and wet. Very difficult to get much accumulation on roads that are retaining warmth and when temps are barely down to freezing. The last event I had almost 3 hours of 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates from late morning to early afternoon with a temp of 33 degrees, but I only got a little slushy dusting on roads and didn't even have to shovel. You really need the temp to fall to freezing or below if roads and pavement are very warm. Right now this event is looking similar with temps likely falling to 33 to 35 during the snow wednesday morning, so it probably won't be a high impact event. That said, if the models are right we could get a couple inches on colder surfaces. It would certainly be very nice to see 1 to 3 inches on car tops and grass, so I'm definitely interested in this event. Any accumulating snow is interesting to me, even if it doesn't have much of an impact on travel. Of course northwest of our area where it will be colder, there's a better chance of seeing some accumulation on pavement. But I don't expect that to happen for central Jersey to NYC.

It's a wave along the front and crashing temps. This is a better setup for the coast than last week.

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19 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

First of all we are getting this snow during the night hours and pre dawn, secondly it’ll be coming down at a great clip, thirdly it hasn’t happened so we don’t know if it will indeed will happen!

Agree. Alot of weary people. 

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's a wave along the front and crashing temps. This is a better setup for the coast than last week.

Right now most models are showing temps falling to about the same level as what we had for last week's event. But it's early and let's hope this continues to trend better. Maybe we can get a period of very heavy snow that causes major dynamic cooling. I don't rule out the possibility of our area getting more significant accumulations, but right now I believe it's more likely to be light accumulations mainly on colder surfaces. We'll see.

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Nice sounding from the 18Z NAM valid at 12Z Wednesday. Not sure why the best guess precip type guess is rain here, maps show snow and that sounding would also be (very wet) snow. Best lift is centered *just* below the DGZ (near 500mb), and there's an ~isothermal layer below that, so at least moderate snow is supported.

image.thumb.png.3a824ff61f270a4da418ca9905827528.png

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24 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Nice sounding from the 18Z NAM valid at 12Z Wednesday. Not sure why the best guess precip type guess is rain here, maps show snow and that sounding would also be (very wet) snow. Best lift is centered *just* below the DGZ (near 500mb), and there's an ~isothermal layer below that, so at least moderate snow is supported.

image.thumb.png.3a824ff61f270a4da418ca9905827528.png

Nam looks nice for a few inches areawide 

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