• Member Statistics

    15,757
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Chicago12
    Newest Member
    Chicago12
    Joined
Zelocita Weather

Possible frontal wave snow

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Seems like a pretty cold 2-4" or so for most of the region, some of the snow falls with 850s near -6/-9F

850s are cold but the surface is still relatively warm (outside of elevated areas) and there is even an elevated warm layer.  Soundings also show a low level unstable layer.  There could also be a period of sleet.  I really hope future model runs stop decreasing QPF.  Heavier intensity precipitation will really help mix down the colder temps aloft.

This could be a classic short duration, high intensity "surprise" snowfall.  The low expectation events are sometimes the most fun when they break right.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Looks like maybe a few hours of moderate snow with temps at or above freezing, seems similar to the last event. Without heavy rates I don't see this doing much.

1-3 inches is a good chance for the city. Temps are going to be near freezing.

Let's hope for a nice bust.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, eduggs said:

850s are cold but the surface is still relatively warm (outside of elevated areas) and there is even an elevated warm layer.  Soundings also show a low level unstable layer.  There could also be a period of sleet.  I really hope future model runs stop decreasing QPF.  Heavier intensity precipitation will really help mix down the colder temps aloft.

This could be a classic short duration, high intensity "surprise" snowfall.  The low expectation events are sometimes the most fun when they break right.

These events can bust high  if they break right like you said. Sometimes the models underestimate the cold air.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like I said before... air temperature won't be much of a problem. If the ground surfaces are above freezing, then nothing will accumulate, say for car roofs. IMO, the snow will accumulate. It's a matter of how quickly that happens once we switch to snow. 

In other words... that thermometer I had buried died, and I forget where I put it. :facepalm:

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

These events can bust high  if they break right like you said. Sometimes the models underestimate the cold air.

Cold air not as big of the issue as lack of QPF on the most recent model runs

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel fairly confident the precip estimates for today are going to bust low, at least in New Jersey.  Radar is juiced, it's very early, and it's absolutely pouring.  I think some people will end up with 2" in the I-95 corridor.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 18z NAM continues the drier and SE trend.

It doesnt even show it raining. It does look slightly better than the 12z run. Either it's going to verify or it's way off.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Snow88 said:

It doesnt even show it raining. It does look slightly better than the 12z run. Either it's going to verify or it's way off.

The snow maps might look a little better on the 18z NAM than the 12z for the immediate NYC area (due to a late burst) and possibly parts of NE, but overall the NAM was less robust in developing precip. on the NW side of the cold front and cut back QPF throughout the SE and MA.

I was hoping to see a more expansive precip. shield on the cold side - even an incipient baroclinic leaf - but the NAM is moving away from that scenario.  Sure a more robust solution might be warmer initially near the coast, but it would also likely increase the odds of a plowable event region wide.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes the delayed onset of the "anafrontal" precip. compared to a guidance a day or two ago allows the atmosphere to cool on the NAM.  That has eliminated the sleet threat for now (layers above 850 are warm prior to 12z) and also allows the surface to cool to 34F or below almost everywhere.  Moderate snow will stick almost everywhere at 33F.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another step down for the RDPS.  The 18z is slightly SE and noticeably drier than previous wet runs.  But the axis of snow is favorable.  We seem to be converging on a model consensus for between 0.2 and 0.4 frozen QPF between approx. 06z and 15z Wed. from NW to E.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Another step down for the RDPS.  The 18z is slightly SE and noticeably drier than previous wet runs.  But the axis of snow is favorable.  We seem to be converging on a model consensus for between 0.2 and 0.4 frozen QPF between approx. 06z and 15z Wed. from NW to E.

 

C1789F02-2A18-46D6-B7C5-A2AD63F1D3EE.thumb.png.8992f7de7736a150e20c8cb2c73c1d9b.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Another step down for the RDPS.  The 18z is slightly SE and noticeably drier than previous wet runs.  But the axis of snow is favorable.  We seem to be converging on a model consensus for between 0.2 and 0.4 frozen QPF between approx. 06z and 15z Wed. from NW to E.
Doesn't look drier. Looks like the snow shifted SE. Plus on the 12z it's still snowing. So I'm not sure it really cut back. Unless you are referring to your specific location.

Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

Doesn't look drier. Looks like the snow shifted SE. Plus on the 12z it's still snowing. So I'm not sure it really cut back. Unless you are referring to your specific location.

Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk
 

The 06z and 12z had widespread 10+ mm snow QPF with pockets of ~18mm for a long swath from MD up through New England.  The  18z is widespread 6+ mm with an area of 10mm mostly in NE.  It's not a huge change but a step down from being on the wetter side of the envelope.  It has also shifted SE with the axis since yesterday.  The heaviest band is now close to the I-95 corridor and close to consensus.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The 06z and 12z had widespread 10+ mm snow QPF with pockets of ~18mm for a long swath from MD up through New England.  The  18z is widespread 6+ mm with an area of 10mm mostly in NE.  It's not a huge change but a step down from being on the wetter side of the envelope.  It has also shifted SE with the axis since yesterday.  The heaviest band is now close to the I-95 corridor and close to consensus.
Yeah that's what I meant I think it just adjusted. Not that I would rely on the model but it did shift SE like others did.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The RGEM was way too far west at 12Z and it tends to have an amped bias beyond 30-36 so I expected a tick SE over the course of the next few runs 
Do you find it odd that both the 12k & 3k are the most SE? I tend to trust the NAM in this time frame but do you think they are pushing the front too far SE as opposed to the rest of the models?

Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Looks like maybe a few hours of moderate snow with temps at or above freezing, seems similar to the last event. Without heavy rates I don't see this doing much.

It’s mostly predawn 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Seems reasonable 

image.png

Looks well overdone, coating to 2 inches is good call.  Most will see less than an inch mostly on grass

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.