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Possible frontal wave snow


Zelocita Weather
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NAM is definitely a shift.  It is wetter and focuses more QPF with the initial fronto push NW of the cities.  Eventually that all shifts east but in sporadic bands.  It is also several hours faster with the initial surge.  Changes in QPF distribution and timing this run suggest the event is still in flux, as usual.

At first glance this looks more favorable for inland locations from EPA - NNJ - SENY and maybe slightly less favorable for coastal NJ and LI.  But I still think there is room for a scenario that gives a couple of inches to almost the entire region.  The thermal boundary is in a relatively favorable position.  The more precip. on the cold side the better.

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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

10:1 maps or kuchera should be used ?

I would use kuchera, and the 12z NAM kuchera map is showing only 1 inch for NYC. RGEM kuchera is better with close to 3 inches. Overall 1 to 2 mainly on colder surfaces still looks like the best call. BTW 12z HRRR looks really bad except for Long Island, but we're not in good HRRR range yet so hopefully it's off. 

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I'm not totally sold on the warm day = no accumulation argument. Cloud cover is going to be thick all day today. You can also tell the roads/sidewalks are cold based on everything still being wet - they're "sweating" due to the dew point being warmer than pavement temps. 

That said, despite the potential for a 1-3h burst of snow in the AM, reeling in expectations for more than an inch or two is wise in the city. Local areas could cash in, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. The mesoscale nature of these snowfall bands will be another nowcasting deal. We know large-scale conditions are favorable, but precisely where they develop is yet to be hashed out.

You think our forecast is hard? Check out the day-of :weenie: :mapsnow:spread in the MS/TN Valleys - they're in the right-rear quad today:

models-2019121012-f024.sn10_acc.us_ov.gif.338e3f0bcb6d49fa8282fc4d6d91c295.gif

Currently, there are reports of sleet in the Memphis area...would not want to be a met at FedEx today.

 

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29 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

I'm not totally sold on the warm day = no accumulation argument. Cloud cover is going to be thick all day today. You can also tell the roads/sidewalks are cold based on everything still being wet - they're "sweating" due to the dew point being warmer than pavement temps. 

That said, despite the potential for a 1-3h burst of snow in the AM, reeling in expectations for more than an inch or two is wise in the city. Local areas could cash in, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. The mesoscale nature of these snowfall bands will be another nowcasting deal. We know large-scale conditions are favorable, but precisely where they develop is yet to be hashed out.

You think our forecast is hard? Check out the day-of :weenie: :mapsnow:spread in the MS/TN Valleys - they're in the right-rear quad today:

models-2019121012-f024.sn10_acc.us_ov.gif.338e3f0bcb6d49fa8282fc4d6d91c295.gif

Currently, there are reports of sleet in the Memphis area...would not want to be a met at FedEx today.

 

Looks like big bust for them?

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3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Which are so much less fun lol

That’s actually a good chunk of our snowfall in the metro area 

Countless times we’ve had 6+ inches of snow and it ends with an hour or two of rain.

In this case the city does better than Long Island because it’s further away from the Maritime influence

In the opposite situation, the city retains heat even after the switch over to snow,  while Long Island has more natural surface to accumulate snow that just changed over.

Maritime effects are negligible in this case as the rain is going over to snow with colder air moving in from the west (away from maritime influences)

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1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

That’s actually a good chunk of our snowfall in the metro area 

Countless times we’ve had 6+ inches of snow and it ends with an hour or two of rain.

In this case the city does better than Long Island because it’s further away from the Maritime influence

In the opposite situation, the city retains heat even after the switch over to snow,  while Long Island has more natural surface to accumulate snow that just changed over.

Maritime effects are negligible in this case as the rain is going over to snow with colder air moving in from the west (away from maritime influences)

Sure but I'd take 2 inches of snow on the backend over 6 inches on the front any day. To each their own, I just hate my snow turning to slop. Would probably need double digits to feel like it was worth it, unless it ends as just some drizzle like last year in November. 

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

I'm not totally sold on the warm day = no accumulation argument. Cloud cover is going to be thick all day today. You can also tell the roads/sidewalks are cold based on everything still being wet - they're "sweating" due to the dew point being warmer than pavement temps. 

That said, despite the potential for a 1-3h burst of snow in the AM, reeling in expectations for more than an inch or two is wise in the city. Local areas could cash in, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. The mesoscale nature of these snowfall bands will be another nowcasting deal. We know large-scale conditions are favorable, but precisely where they develop is yet to be hashed out.

 

 

Everything is wet here because it's been misting and raining since about 8am here. With the temp in the low 50's this morning we were drying out much more quickly than I would have expected.

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2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Everything is wet here because it's been misting and raining since about 8am here. With the temp in the low 50's this morning we were drying out much more quickly than I would have expected.

Makes sense. The city obs were all dry between ~midnight and ~noon. 

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

I'm not totally sold on the warm day = no accumulation argument. Cloud cover is going to be thick all day today. You can also tell the roads/sidewalks are cold based on everything still being wet - they're "sweating" due to the dew point being warmer than pavement temps. 

That said, despite the potential for a 1-3h burst of snow in the AM, reeling in expectations for more than an inch or two is wise in the city. Local areas could cash in, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. The mesoscale nature of these snowfall bands will be another nowcasting deal. We know large-scale conditions are favorable, but precisely where they develop is yet to be hashed out.

You think our forecast is hard? Check out the day-of :weenie: :mapsnow:spread in the MS/TN Valleys - they're in the right-rear quad today:

models-2019121012-f024.sn10_acc.us_ov.gif.338e3f0bcb6d49fa8282fc4d6d91c295.gif

Currently, there are reports of sleet in the Memphis area...would not want to be a met at FedEx today.

 

Not to mention temperatures outside of the city were well down in the teens 2 mornings ago.  It's not like today's weather has been the pattern for weeks.  In fact daily lows have averaged sub-freezing here since November 1.    11/29/95 was 63 degrees late afternoon and snowing here by midnight.  It turned over here before it did in the city.  That snow had no problem sticking.  This one might not have as much snow, but the table setting seems the same.

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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Radar is really juiced up. Models are really dry for some reason.

There is a lot of dry air leading to virga on the northern fringes of what you see on composite radar imagery. The 12Z Little Rock sounding (below) revealed the dry air layer. No models caught on to the -21C dew point just below 850mb. SGF to its northwest was considerably drier and explains why Memphis and Nashville are currently not observing precipitation.

12Z_LZK_SPC.thumb.png.e086f7db390e45744dba47e0064ec96c.png

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