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Zelocita Weather

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

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4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Which means nyc, LI, se MA, CT and RI are L about to be hit pretty hard brasil

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CG

that ensemble mean from the other nite WAS golden!!!!!

best to all

tommy e

 

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6 minutes ago, Doorman said:

Brasy

that is surface low track guidance

the ULL upper level low is progged to capture the surface low underneath it 

and that is shown here

A_24hr500.thumb.gif.efd0bc0988ddafcae6951562456c11c8.gif

 

TY Doorman and you other guys I got it

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This is about as unpredictable as it can get.  Congrats to the posters who get stuck in that deformation band tomorrow.  

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5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Can I ask another question ? How accurate / reliable is the surface Low track guidance ? 

The surface progs from the OPC inside of 24hrs are money....:pimp:

their forecasters are some of the best in the biz

trust me on this

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Doorman is somewhat of a legend around these parts. That withstanding, he is appearance is rather rare these days. He normally moonlights when something big is in the cards.

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18 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Doorman is somewhat of a legend around these parts. That withstanding, he is appearance is rather rare these days. He normally moonlights when something big is in the cards.

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USCG, then let me just add 2 things, I appreciate his and your replies and that I am not worthy , now back to tracking :)

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Is this correct ? Central Park is so much colder than the Airports388A2293-C842-4965-8124-809FA028ACE5.thumb.png.71895ca540316d31184177d6e651c875.png
It is possible, considering the direction of the wind and the proximity of the airports to the water

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USCG, then let me just add 2 things, I appreciate his and your replies and that I am not worthy , now back to tracking 
Much obliged... But we are all here to learn. Nothing to be considered unworthy of

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6 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

It is possible, considering the direction of the wind and the proximity of the airports to the water

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They corrected it now to 37

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8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

WSWarning now in effect here for 4-7" of snow.

Yes same thing for Sayreville.  Bloomfield is still an advisory for 2-4 but Im thinking thats going to change. Im heading up there into work soon. May the snow gods bless us all with white gold!

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24 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

WSWarning now in effect here for 4-7" of snow.

It's warranted given tonight's trends. NAM looks nice now too especially just west of the city. 

I see precip starting to pop in NE NJ. Current temps 36-37F with 33-35F a bit further west. 

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28 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Pretty consistent with the tongue over NJ.

There is also a tongue over NYC.  Gfs also has the banding over the area.

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One thing to watch for the coast is the wind direction. It’s going to be tuff to get temps low enough for accumulations until the wind goes North. I’m thinking 1-2” at home on the south shore and 3-5” at work on the far UWS where I’ll be posting from. 
Be careful using snow maps as your source for QPF and where banding sets up. There is more further East that could be shown as rain that may actually be snow

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Thought summaries of the NWS Philly/NYC forecasts and the relevant snowfall maps might be helpful.  Significant bust potential exists on the low side for NWS-Philly and on the high side for the NWS-NYC, IMO. This is really going to be a nowcasting event, i.e., watching the radars and the sky.  Where do I sign up for the 4-7" forecast for me? 

So let's get to what the NWS-Phillly is saying.

  • Warnings are now up for 5-8" of snow for Bucks, the Lehigh Valley, Mercer, Hunterdon, and Somerset,
  • A warning is up for 4-7" for Middlesex
  • Warnings are up for 6-10" for the Poconos, Sussex/Warren/Morris.
  • Advisories are now up for 2-5" for Montco, W. Chester, Berks, W. Monmouth, Ocean, and Burlington
  • Advisories are up for 1-4" for E. Chester, Delaware, Philly, Gloucester, Camden, and E. Monmouth.

And what the NWS-NYC is saying.

  • Warnings are up for 5-7" of snow up for W. Union, and W. Essex
  • Warnings are up for 5-10" of snow for Passaic, N. Bergen, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, N. Westchester, and N. Fairfield
  • Advisories are up for 2-4" for eastern Union, eastern Essex, southern Bergen, Hudson, Bronx, Manhattan, Staten Island, Queens, Brooklyn, S. Westchester and N. Nassau (and 4-6" for interior CT/3-5" for coastal CT).

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Sftvss5.png

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Overnight trends were excellent for the city but cant have it trend too much east with that band.

Gefs did trend it east FWIW over the city

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30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

One thing to watch for the coast is the wind direction. It’s going to be tuff to get temps low enough for accumulations until the wind goes North. I’m thinking 1-2” at home on the south shore and 3-5” at work on the far UWS where I’ll be posting from. 
Be careful using snow maps as your source for QPF and where banding sets up. There is more further East that could be shown as rain that may actually be snow

...yeah..i'm thinking 1-2" here also..all about wind direction for us..

but 2 things..

where does the deformation band set up?

and the upper level low seems to be diving further south and east..colder?..just a observation..

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4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Need it to stop and set up shop overhead or there won't be much impact here.

Agreed, I have a feeling this is a big winners and losers day. Someone has a surprise 8” all out snow storm and someone has scraps and a coating 

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