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NYCweatherNOW

December 2019

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

So far this fall, the MJO didn’t avoid what would be a warm phase for December. While it did linger in phase 2, it eventually came out into phase 5. So it was similar to last year. That is part of the cold November pattern for us in recent years. The lagged response for phase 5 in November is a colder -EPO pattern. But phase 5 is a milder one in December.


The main question going forward is whether the MJO follows the same fall path in December like recent years. Due to the much stronger +IOD, we may see another slow down in phase 2 in early December. The lagged December response for phase 2 is an eventual moderation in temperatures for us. But we would probably need the MJO to make a move into phase 5 in mid or late December to see more significant warmth. 

So we’ll check back in early December to see what the MJO actually does. The model MJO forecasts aren’t very good beyond 6-10 days. So I don’t really trust any particular forecasts being shown beyond 8-10 days. The model typically goes into correction mode once it shows the actual  MJO forecast. The shorter term forecasts will look much different that what was shown beyond 10:days.

I don't know. We'll just have to see what happens, but I'm not really seeing as many similarities with last December right now. Other than the eastern Africa/west IO area, the canvas looks totally different to me.

avDS5mWWn1.png.986918139c7db0931a58ed0ee805b9ea.png

eps_chi200_anomaly_hov_equatorial_2019112600_MEAN.thumb.png.186cbf1f5ed69f9213e02af4103ac3fa.png

 

One other thing is, I don't really hate dealing with a phase 2 in December. Especially if the +IOD can constructively interfere with it. Last year it seemed like we were plagued by 3,4,5 for endless amounts of time and everything else was muted. Hopefully we can get some variation of the following. 

DecemberPhase2gt1500mb.gif.286736e9dcdc6d17f45246989145408a.gif

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We need the low to get more tucked in there’s plenty of cold air dropping down and any rain will quickly change to heavy snow. A scenario like the GFS depiction will not get northern New Jersey into the heavy snow and south jersey and Long Island will bullseye.

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7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Suffolk County jackpot. That means this is real. I have the Phish concert at the Colliseum on Sunday. Hoping the snow doesn’t cancel the show

It doesn’t mean this is real. Other models are not in agreement with GFS solution. It will definitely change.

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12z Canadian also going with a transfer off the coast solution.

 

One thing the models are in agreement, including last night euro, is a coastal transfer. Where that occurs will be key. 

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The whole setup is sort of similar to 12/19/95.  That system didn’t track southeast, hence much higher amounts than this would produce but it was a product of a well timed blocked in an otherwise ugly pattern with marginal temps ahead of it 

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18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The whole setup is sort of similar to 12/19/95.  That system didn’t track southeast, hence much higher amounts than this would produce but it was a product of a well timed blocked in an otherwise ugly pattern with marginal temps ahead of it 

I could be wrong but I quite can’t see the similarity in initial setup between the two of them besides them being Miller Bs

 

edit: in 95 the primary low was in Houston, this time it’s looking like it will cross Chicago

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58 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Suffolk County jackpot. That means this is real. I have the Phish concert at the Colliseum on Sunday. Hoping the snow doesn’t cancel the show

Ha - ill be there as well (Providence too)

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+PNA emerging after the 9th on EPS and GEFS today. So both are advertising that now. Not such a bad way to head into met winter, given the potential beforehand. Regardless of how anything plays out. 

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5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

+PNA emerging after the 9th on EPS and GEFS today. So both are advertising that now. Not such a bad way to head into met winter, given the potential beforehand. Regardless of how anything plays out. 

If the MJO goes into 3-4 though I’m not sure the pattern will be that good.  Even if we do see the AO/NAO return negative 

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If the MJO goes into 3-4 though I’m not sure the pattern will be that good.  Even if we do see the AO/NAO return negative 

I agree. Sounds like last year to me. I'm wondering if the +IOD can mute that somewhat. Being that it's helping with subsidence in that area.

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43 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If the MJO goes into 3-4 though I’m not sure the pattern will be that good.  Even if we do see the AO/NAO return negative 

Have you seen the long range ? It doesnt look bad at all

 

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS 360 hour forecasts continue to correct warmer when they get to around 240 hours. This is why it doesn’t pay to look at what the EPS has beyond 10 days out.
 

New run

B4524B2D-6D1F-4270-B1FC-8A4DBCAF0407.thumb.png.ba9d074aad404d5ac68359b0801836ea.png
Old run

D9ADA2B6-4B3A-4E8E-842C-76B8660195FE.thumb.png.a74d68b3fcdd7aaf6539dbe066c7ac63.png

 

That's not bad 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Recent years have conditioned our forum to have lower expectations going into December.

Alot of people have also  left this forum

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