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Ralph Wiggum

Winter 2019-2020 Banter Thread

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Its hilarious how the MJO keeps avoiding the cold phases. It's now modeled to go into the COD and then out into 4.

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Read Don S's thoughts in your forum -- based on current Pac SSTA's, the MJO's base state may be more prone to stay in the warm phases going forward.

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54 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Read Don S's thoughts in your forum -- based on current Pac SSTA's, the MJO's base state may be more prone to stay in the warm phases going forward.

He is right

The MJO is going into the COD and then the warm phases.

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Its hilarious how the MJO keeps avoiding the cold phases. It's now modeled to go into the COD and then out into 4.

Someone here in this sub, I forget who, said that those MJO charts shouldn't be trusted they are biased warm and will continue to correct more amplified and colder in reality. I never heard of such a thing before and certainly dont buy such bunk at this time as all they have done the entire winter is corrected less amped and circled back repeatedly into the warm phases.

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On 1/31/2020 at 7:02 AM, Mikeymac5306 said:

Was it three years ago we were pushing mid 70's at the end of February, and then we got hit with three snowstorms in March? 

 

Also, we mention 2002 as a low to no snowfall year then it was all blowtorch from March to October that year.  I'm all about warm weather just not 90 degrees for 6 months straight! 

 

 

The one thing I was gonna quote from a post upthread regarding 2001 - 2002, which is what you touched on in your post so I'll use that to jump off on, was that after 9/11, the spigot turned off that fall leading into the winter season (resulting in little snow), and then we went into a drought. That meant less and less surface and ground water, with dry begetting dry, leading to serious extended heatwaves, with ocassional triple digit temps and whatnot by that summer.  So far I haven't seen that sort of BN precipitation this season, as we have generally been getting pretty close to normal - albeit in liquid form - at least so far.  So as long as there is precip, it lessens the chance for the more extreme heatwaves.

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Anyone else getting excited for baseball season? @ChescoPaWxman

Pitchers and catchers next week. I only wish the Phillies signed another solid starter but we can hope Wheeler and Nola will perform and the Eflins of the world can help carry them. Wasnt impressed with the bullpen moves or lack of either. Offense and fielding looks good on paper but this team still desperately needs pitching the way I see it.

82-80 this year imo

Thoughts?

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Anyone else getting excited for baseball season? @ChescoPaWxman

Pitchers and catchers next week. I only wish the Phillies signed another solid starter but we can hope Wheeler and Nola will perform and the Eflins of the world can help carry them. Wasnt impressed with the bullpen moves or lack of either. Offense and fielding looks good on paper but this team still desperately needs pitching the way I see it.

82-80 this year imo

Thoughts?

Hi Steve very excited for Phigthins this year!! I do wish they signed another pitcher....but some strong adds in Wheeler and Gregorius at SS solid! Incredibly the Phillies are the #5 pick in vegas to win the World Series. Not quite sure I am there but I do think they have their 1st winning season since 2011....lineup is strong but of course it comes down to the pitching. Will they make one more deal before the season - will some of the young pitchers step up?? Either way it is always great to have our National Pastime coming back - for me it is the greatest sport!!
Go Phillies!! Record 85-77

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Anyone else getting excited for baseball season? @ChescoPaWxman

Pitchers and catchers next week. I only wish the Phillies signed another solid starter but we can hope Wheeler and Nola will perform and the Eflins of the world can help carry them. Wasnt impressed with the bullpen moves or lack of either. Offense and fielding looks good on paper but this team still desperately needs pitching the way I see it.

82-80 this year imo

Thoughts?

I'm pumped! Heading to spring training this year for the first time. Hitting 3 games and the Flyers-Lightning in Tampa. I grew up a Braves fan due to TBS superstation in the 90's but over the years it's really like a 50-50 split in my fandom now just because I watch the Phils way more often since Braves aren't nationally televised anymore. Think the Phils should be in the fight for the NL East. Really think it's anyone's division between the Braves, Phils, and Nats. Mets might not be bad this year either. Overall think the same as you, somewhere around 82-80 wins but if the Pitching can surprise, they can definitely win the east with their line up.

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Southern Texas down to the Mexico border is going to have double the snow in the next 24 hours than most of us have had all season. At this rate, Cuba will see a WSW level event before we do...

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4 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Southern Texas down to the Mexico border is going to have double the snow in the next 24 hours than most of us have had all season. At this rate, Cuba will see a WSW level event before we do...

When such an event is forecast for Bermuda it will be time for me to take that long walk on a very short pier. As always ..... 

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6 hours ago, The Iceman said:

I'm pumped! Heading to spring training this year for the first time. Hitting 3 games and the Flyers-Lightning in Tampa. I grew up a Braves fan due to TBS superstation in the 90's but over the years it's really like a 50-50 split in my fandom now just because I watch the Phils way more often since Braves aren't nationally televised anymore. Think the Phils should be in the fight for the NL East. Really think it's anyone's division between the Braves, Phils, and Nats. Mets might not be bad this year either. Overall think the same as you, somewhere around 82-80 wins but if the Pitching can surprise, they can definitely win the east with their line up.

We go every year. Heading this year March 3-15. Be sure to show up early prior to one of the games to check out the Carpenter complex (free admission) where you can get autographs and chat with the players (MLB all the way down to single A phillies)

Best bet to get autographs (aside from the carpenter complex) is to hit up an away game for the Phils where you can catch them getting on the bus.

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21 hours ago, The Iceman said:

I'm pumped! Heading to spring training this year for the first time. Hitting 3 games and the Flyers-Lightning in Tampa. I grew up a Braves fan due to TBS superstation in the 90's but over the years it's really like a 50-50 split in my fandom now just because I watch the Phils way more often since Braves aren't nationally televised anymore. Think the Phils should be in the fight for the NL East. Really think it's anyone's division between the Braves, Phils, and Nats. Mets might not be bad this year either. Overall think the same as you, somewhere around 82-80 wins but if the Pitching can surprise, they can definitely win the east with their line up.

I have gone to Spring Training for the last 13 years - my brother and brother in law rent a house = outstanding time!! just a sea of phillies red - feels like you are in philly!!

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On 2/4/2020 at 9:01 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Anyone else getting excited for baseball season? @ChescoPaWxman

Pitchers and catchers next week. I only wish the Phillies signed another solid starter but we can hope Wheeler and Nola will perform and the Eflins of the world can help carry them. Wasnt impressed with the bullpen moves or lack of either. Offense and fielding looks good on paper but this team still desperately needs pitching the way I see it.

82-80 this year imo

Thoughts?

Vegas has their over/under win total at 85.5. I'll go with 81-81 with their bullpen blowing many games. It's amazing they didn't address this area.

 

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2 hours ago, JTA66 said:

And it’s under 72 hours...lock it up!!

0z has it at 957mb. I have a feeling the NAM is suffering from convective feed back issues. Just a guess. 

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_16.png

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On 2/4/2020 at 5:22 PM, greenskeeper said:

We go every year. Heading this year March 3-15. Be sure to show up early prior to one of the games to check out the Carpenter complex (free admission) where you can get autographs and chat with the players (MLB all the way down to single A phillies)

Best bet to get autographs (aside from the carpenter complex) is to hit up an away game for the Phils where you can catch them getting on the bus.

Awesome information, thank you! We are planning to hit one away game(against the Yankees), so I will keep this all in mind. I don't really care about autograph's, but I do think it's cool chatting with the players/maybe getting a photo and definitely would like to try and do that. Really looking forward to the experience!

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Upstate NY and NNE are going to cash in again. Imagine if we had blocking.  We would have been buried. 

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17 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Upstate NY and NNE are going to cash in again. Imagine if we had blocking.  We would have been buried. 

Yep, if we had even a little blocking or EPO help, this period would have produced at least one storm. Had we had a perfect look, it would have been comparable to 2010. But alas, we have literally everything going against snow at the moment and it doesn't look to change thru the end of the Month. Expect more of same. 1-2 days of seasonable cold, warm up 1-2 days, rain, and repeat.

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I am actually starting to look forward to the warmer weather and hopefully plenty of severe weather chances. By mid February I usually start getting tired of winter unless it has been a good winter for cold/snow. I wouldn't mind seeing a few high end storm threats develop though for the rest of February/March regardless of precipitation type.

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

I am actually starting to look forward to the warmer weather and hopefully plenty of severe weather chances. By mid February I usually start getting tired of winter unless it has been a good winter for cold/snow. I wouldn't mind seeing a few high end storm threats develop though for the rest of February/March regardless of precipitation type.

I'm looking forward. This lack of hard freeze never killed the weeds and they have been spreading already during the "winter". I need a few days in the yard, some fishing, baseball, etc. I'm over this season. Even a fluke March is looking unlikely on the weeklies. The crud pattern is relentless.

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