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Ralph Wiggum

Winter 2019-2020 Banter Thread

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@The Iceman

Hey, I'm really liking the Flyers core and youth.  Should actually make a push this year. Farabee and Frost are exciting. Myers on D has been a welcome piece. TK playing well. Most vets playing solid. I still think Jake needs to go. Losing faith in Ghost too. But I am hearing Patrick is progressing nicely and may return sooner than later.

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Great seeing Konecny and Lindblom continue to grow -- good thing too as the vets have been a little less than impressive (great game by G last night, though!). Still, I think this team is was it is for now -- win 2 or 3 in a row, lose 2 or 3 in a row. Still haven't made up my mind on Fletcher. Just glad he didn't do the typical "Flyers thing" and trade all our youth for past-their-prime stars.

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12z ECM NW of yesterday's which is looking like one errant mid range blip it often did that last winter. 

90% of the time these Miller B's that hit New England the snow maps are too generous in the SW quadrant, food for thought.

 

 

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I'm expecting a package being shipped from N NJ. I got a UPS update that it's been delayed due to severe wx. Any idea what's going on between here and N NJ? Tornados? Flash flooding? A landfalling hurricane?? BECS???

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52 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I'm expecting a package being shipped from N NJ. I got a UPS update that it's been delayed due to severe wx. Any idea what's going on between here and N NJ? Tornados? Flash flooding? A landfalling hurricane?? BECS???

Same here. Overwhelmed with holiday deliveries and the Monday snow event up that way will do it.

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On ‎11‎/‎29‎/‎2019 at 1:45 PM, RedSky said:

Just found and read Don S winter forecast. Very much like Isotherm's pretty dismal outlook :(

 

Some years they are 85% right, others not so much like last year.  I wouldn't worry too much.  It is what it is. 

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1 hour ago, frankdp23 said:

Some years they are 85% right, others not so much like last year.  I wouldn't worry too much.  It is what it is. 

It's all about the analogs, past winter patterns with the predicted AO/NAO/ EPO/ PNA /background ENSO, MJO cycle and even solar state. Climate change plays havoc with analogs.

 

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On 11/22/2019 at 10:48 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

@The Iceman

Hey, I'm really liking the Flyers core and youth.  Should actually make a push this year. Farabee and Frost are exciting. Myers on D has been a welcome piece. TK playing well. Most vets playing solid. I still think Jake needs to go. Losing faith in Ghost too. But I am hearing Patrick is progressing nicely and may return sooner than later.

Just saw this haha but I'm really loving the team this year as well. We are dominating possession most games and are winning despite many of our vets being snakebitten scoring wise. I also think bringing up Frost and Farabee was a great move. They make their share of mistakes but I think they've been improving every game even if the scoring isn't quite there yet. I can see frost being a 30+ goal scorer eventually with his wicked wrist shot and Farabee reminds me of the winger version of Coots when he was that age with his smart 2 way play.  Hart is finally playing consistent and has really made himself the clear #1 this past month. The defense is the best we've had in years, the Niskenan trade was an absolute steal. Him and Provorov are a legit first pair which is something we have lacked in years past. As long as Hagg stays away from the line up and we don't do something stupid like trade Ghost, the defense should continue to be solid and only improve as the year goes on as guys like Sanheim and Myers gain even more experience. I really like offensively that we are getting scoring all up and down the line up. No one is putting up big numbers(save for TK) but the depth scoring is there to balance it out. And all of this is in spite of playing in an entirely new system from years past. I still think they haven't adjusted fully to it but once they do, watch out. Overall this team really reminds me of the Blues last year with their depth and if Hart continues his strong play and gives us the ability to steal games with his goaltending, we could be serious contenders this spring.

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Compared to the other regions Philadelphia region is dead.  I generally find myself going to the Mid Atlantic region or others for information. Wish this region was more lively... 

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4 minutes ago, Shu Suzuki said:

Compared to the other regions Philadelphia region is dead.  I generally find myself going to the Mid Atlantic region or others for information. Wish this region was more lively... 

Could not agree more. I'm very active on other NYC centered forums but it's tough with the clear bias. Here many of us experience the same weather and it would be great to talk more but it's not worth my time if there's only like 5 or 6 total members that post here lol.

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24 minutes ago, Shu Suzuki said:

Compared to the other regions Philadelphia region is dead.  I generally find myself going to the Mid Atlantic region or others for information. Wish this region was more lively... 

It would be more lively if Lehigh Valley and the rest of Eastern PA were welcomed as part of this region. Many  posters in this Philly and NY  regions consider those who live in the LV outsiders with no home even though over 1 million people live in the Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon and Berks counties. Its strange but we are the third largest metro area in PA with no identity by the American Weather Forum yet the Poconos lies in our area and we are the fastest growing area in the state. There are more people who live in our metro area than some of the U S states. With the geography of our area, widespread  different precip types along with different  amounts of precip occur every winter.  Stop and think why EPAWA does so well here- because Mt Holly and even the American  Forum fails to recognize that we are third most populous area in the state with a wide range of physical geography. Every day like others , I must go to the NY metro area, or Mid Atlantic area or even the upstate NY/PA area. Why can't the American Weather forum rename Philly area and call it the Eastern PA forum? That would help bring more posters to this regional weather forum. If you take Philly and the LV  areas along , we are talking more population than most of the regions put together.  I say rename the forum to Eastern PA and watch it come back to life. Otherwise it, will continue to be abysmal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehigh_Valley

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On 12/6/2019 at 10:50 PM, Newman said:

Could not agree more. I'm very active on other NYC centered forums but it's tough with the clear bias. Here many of us experience the same weather and it would be great to talk more but it's not worth my time if there's only like 5 or 6 total members that post here lol.

I totally agree. To be honest I only come to the Philly thread for observations during events, most of the model discussion happens in the NYC thread. I know we've broached this subject before but I'd be fine with the merger of NYC/Philly. As a CNJ/South Jersey resident I feel caught between two areas. Just my two cents though. 

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27 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I totally agree. To be honest I only come to the Philly thread for observations during events, most of the model discussion happens in the NYC thread. I know we've broached this subject before but I'd be fine with the merger of NYC/Philly. As a CNJ/South Jersey resident I feel caught between two areas. Just my two cents though. 

Same here except I follow the Mid Atlantic thread instead 

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I'd say put all of PA under one subforum, but I realize the climates are diverse and it certainly isn't a perfect fit.  We all have our "IMBY" preferences and microclimates.

Central PA and Western PA only have one thread each and for some reason are lumped in with Upstate New York.  That part doesn't make a ton of sense, either.  Would Upstate NY (which I assume includes Western NY) fit in better with the NYC forum, making separate NY and PA regions?  NJ can remain split - north going to NY and south going to PA.  DE could perhaps also split - north into PA and south into Mid-Atlantic.

As someone that has lived in three of the four corners of PA, I can attest there are considerable differences.  Nonetheless, since all the regions are small on their own, maybe it would be worth it to combine them all into one moderately sized discussion pool?  I like following what is happening all over PA and having to jump between forums is somewhat an inconvenience, albeit a very minor one.

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I have decided to post my forecasts from my facebook page in the banter thread to stimulate some discussion. feel free to discuss and I welcome your opinions 

 

to my weather friends: still holding firm with my earlier forecast from last week. It will be warm tomorrow for this time of the year, maybe even hit 60 degrees before the front comes through in the evening with humid breezy SE wind. Then watch the temps plummet nearly 25 degrees after the passage of the cold front with perhaps a thundershower or brief heavy rain shower before changing to a moderate snow in the early morning with a stiff NW wind. My final call for snow accumulation on Wednesday morning snow event is 1-3 inches for the LV. If heavier bands set up between Philly and the LV, we could see some 4+ inch of snow in areas but most if not all will be on the grass. If the snow rates are also heavy enough though it will accumulate on the roads even though they are wet and somewhat warm now.. I still expect a winter weather advisory for Wednesday morning to be issued so please drive carefully. The snow flakes could be huge with good dendritic growth in the heavier snow bands. Anything on the roads will freeze Wednesday evening as highs on Thursday will barely reach freezing and overnight lows in the upper teens. It will feel like winter on Thursday, believe me with a cold wind chill in the air and the ground covered in snow.

Long range models are pointing to another possible more significant snow event around the 18-19th time frame. Initial model runs indicate 6-12 inches of snow. This amount could give us a white Christmas. Still too early to say for sure but of course I will keep you informed. This storm is exhibiting the same character and path of a good "benchmark storm" which puts the coastal low in a prime spot for eastern PA to get a significant snow storm. We will see.

 

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20 hours ago, Albedoman said:

I have decided to post my forecasts from my facebook page in the banter thread to stimulate some discussion. feel free to discuss and I welcome your opinions 

 

to my weather friends: still holding firm with my earlier forecast from last week. It will be warm tomorrow for this time of the year, maybe even hit 60 degrees before the front comes through in the evening with humid breezy SE wind. Then watch the temps plummet nearly 25 degrees after the passage of the cold front with perhaps a thundershower or brief heavy rain shower before changing to a moderate snow in the early morning with a stiff NW wind. My final call for snow accumulation on Wednesday morning snow event is 1-3 inches for the LV. If heavier bands set up between Philly and the LV, we could see some 4+ inch of snow in areas but most if not all will be on the grass. If the snow rates are also heavy enough though it will accumulate on the roads even though they are wet and somewhat warm now.. I still expect a winter weather advisory for Wednesday morning to be issued so please drive carefully. The snow flakes could be huge with good dendritic growth in the heavier snow bands. Anything on the roads will freeze Wednesday evening as highs on Thursday will barely reach freezing and overnight lows in the upper teens. It will feel like winter on Thursday, believe me with a cold wind chill in the air and the ground covered in snow.

Long range models are pointing to another possible more significant snow event around the 18-19th time frame. Initial model runs indicate 6-12 inches of snow. This amount could give us a white Christmas. Still too early to say for sure but of course I will keep you informed. This storm is exhibiting the same character and path of a good "benchmark storm" which puts the coastal low in a prime spot for eastern PA to get a significant snow storm. We will see.

 

Why not just start an OP thread?

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to my weather friends. Are you enjoying the leftover snow and frigid temps today ? Gets in you the Christmas mood. Whats up next? The overrunning plot that I said would happen after yesterdays snow event in my last forecast appears to be happening on cue. A chance of freezing drizzle/rain and or sleet late Friday night into Saturday morning appears to be on the horizon. It should not be much as as the warm air quickly infiltrates all levels of the atmosphere and changes over to rain which will become heavy at times. The temps will agin warm up to the 50's. Another 1.5 to 2 inches of rain will cause flooding along the Little Lehigh Creek and low spots along Spring Creek Rd. Drive carefully

The 6-12 inch snow event that I was talking about for midweek next week is still in the picture. It has not gone way. The models are having a very difficult time handling a Miller A type storm event as we have not seen one in many years. A Miller A type of winter storm event is when a low pressure travels up toward our area from the deep south. Placement of that low pressure can give us a lot of snow or simply go out into the Atlantic Ocean and miss us completely (a southern slider). The models are having a difficult time handling the upper area currents right now due to major changes in the upper atmosphere at this time of the year. Predicting when and where this low pressure sets up along the eastern seaboard is difficult so mid range modeling become somewhat unreliable for snow accumulations until we get within three days of the actual event. The fact that we are also on the rain/snow line line makes predicting this event even harder. so stay tune. If this event does happen the ground should be white all the way to Christmas day. There is also another chance of snow actually on Christmas day too.

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to my weather friends: Looks like the low pressure system is going inland instead of along the coast. This means much more wintry slop and less pure snow for Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. The 6-12 inches that I called for late last week is definitely off the table. It appears todays storm was a lake cutter where the low pressure system followed along the eastern Great Lakes up to Canada and brought us plain rain. This approaching storm on Monday will be an Appalachian runner where the low pressure system will be directly over us instead of being just off the coast. This pumps what a call only "refrigerator" and not "freezer" air over us and brings a major winter overrunning precipitation event. We first start off with a thump of 1-2 inches of snow then to a period of sleet and then a prolong period of freezing rain. Total snow/ sleet could be nearly 3 inches when compacted on the grass. Once the precip turns to freezing rain, it will pack down to just an inch of snow on the grass. The roads will be slushy at the most. What may happen is that a serious amount of freezing rain could occur if the cold air hangs out in the deeper valleys and we may see a winter weather advisory or even a winter freezing rain watch/warning. After this storm event passes it will remain dry and cold until around Christmas when another winter slop mess appears on the models. Will keep you informed.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Eagles-Cowboys game in Philly could be alot of fun with the entire season riding on it for both teams 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png

I have always wondered what would have happened if the Eagles Cowboys  play off game that was played in Dallas on the day of the Jan 1996 blizzard was played in Philly instead.

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1 hour ago, bigtenfan said:

I have always wondered what would have happened if the Eagles Cowboys  play off game that was played in Dallas on the day of the Jan 1996 blizzard was played in Philly instead.

I got up to 8F and a blizzard warning that Sunday morning, with 4" on the ground. It would have been pretty amazing. Apparently the NFL has never rescheduled a game due to snow.

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