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Hoosier

Here comes winter -- October 28-November 1 Snowstorm Potential

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Rain snow line was more north than I anticipated. Good ol' 33-34 cold rain here with some sleet mixed in. Hoping I fair better with the main event. I'm honestly surprised temps didnt drop quicker with dews in upper 20s. Thought evaporative cooling would do the trick but I was wrong

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I would assume all the models coming in for tonight through tomorrow can be tossed as well. At least in terms of those totals.

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Few flakes were mixing downtown Chicago on my walk to work from Ogilvie to about Millennium Park. Some slushy spots when crossing the river but 80%+ of precip was rain. Back at the apartment in Des Plaines, more snow wax mixing in overnight which barely covered cars. It was mostly rain at 6:30 am as temps started slowly creeping up. 

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59 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

I would assume all the models coming in for tonight through tomorrow can be tossed as well. At least in terms of those totals.

i expect it to actually snow out on Halloween, ULL moves right overhead and 2M temps falling close to 32 area wide with NW flow. That said, modeled QPF as snow is probably high

thinking 2-4 hrs of high quality mood flakes or a DAB+ here in the city 

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6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i expect it to actually snow out on Halloween, ULL moves right overhead and 2M temps falling close to 32 area wide with NW flow. That said, modeled QPF as snow is probably high

thinking 2-4 hrs of high quality mood flakes or a DAB+ here in the city 


Sounds about right. Accumulations on the grass up to an inch or so just to set the scene. LOT has handled everything nicely.

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Well, for Round 2, the 12z NAM and 3k NAM show roughly 0.6" - 0.8" of liquid in the northern half of the LOT area, between 9 PM tonight and 9 PM on Halloween night.  That's the good news, but unfortunately the good news ends there. 

Given the discussion and model analysis over the past couple of days, you would've thought that Round 2 would be all snow.  Unfortunately, based on recent tends, it looks like 50%+ of it will be liquid/mix/35F snow due to contamination of the boundary layer off the lake.  And this isn't just for areas right by the lake; it's most/all of the metro area.  

So, if you figure 8:1 ratios when it does snow at temps that would allow sticking, 1-2" seems like a best case, unfortunately.

You just need a million things to go right this time of year, and it just doesn't seem to be happening.

If only this were 2 weeks later... 

Even so, accumulating snow on Halloween is always a bonus, and has never happened in all my time living here.

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12z GFS only gives me 2.1 inches of snow.  Since temps will be once again close to freezing when the snow starts, caking of the trees is inevitable once again.  At least the winds will be light.

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Think like 1-1.5" is a reasonable call here tomorrow.  I am not sure what the hell the HRRR is doing with diurnally warming temps in and around Chicago metro tomorrow.  CAA and precip should keep temps falling.

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I expect tomorrow to look decidedly more impressive in and around Chicago metro.  Besides the snow, which could be falling at a decent clip at times, mixing suggests gusts of around 35 mph or perhaps a tad higher.  

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That axis of snow last night and this morning from W IL into N IL ended up much more narrow than pretty much any model showed, even the NAM's, which usually do a fairly good job with banding. All guidance did a terrible job on amounts, and even QPF as well.

Based on reports, it looks like the main axis was ~15mile wide with 1-3.5", and a DAB surrounding that.

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1.2" ORD and 1.4" MDW last night/this morning.

As previously mentioned, ORD broke the snowfall record for the date of 0.7" (1923).

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Think like 1-1.5" is a reasonable call here tomorrow.  I am not sure what the hell the HRRR is doing with diurnally warming temps in and around Chicago metro tomorrow.  CAA and precip should keep temps falling.

Both the GFS and HRRR seem to be on an island regarding this. Everything else has CAA kick in, with a flip to snow this evening or tonight across the area.

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Seems like widespread agreement on 2-6" tonight/tomorrow across the area. Several models are higher than that, but given their performance last night have to shave some off...though it was a different setup. In this case we'll have the storm deepening, wrapping up and CAA setting in.

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GFS/HRRR almost certainly on to something here keeping low level flow off lake for a longer period and i don't expect a flip here locally until 1-2 pm tomorrow, but should see a brief window for accums, maybe DAB+ to 2 if everything breaks right

 

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12 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

GFS/HRRR almost certainly on to something here keeping low level flow off lake for a longer period and i don't expect a flip here locally until 1-2 pm tomorrow, but should see a brief window for accums, maybe DAB+ to 2 if everything breaks right

 

They don't have a flow off the lake, they're just slower with CAA. HRRR has NNW winds by 6z.

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The thing that doesn't make sense is that the GFS/HRRR have temps in the mid 30s in the heart of Chicago even 6 hours after the winds have shifted offshore.  That doesn't make much sense with strengthening CAA.

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14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i see NE winds off the lake into the city through 18z on the GFS 

 

:oldman:

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