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pasnownut

Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Hampden Township announced Thursday morning that it has rescheduled trick-or-treat for Saturday evening from 6 to 8 p.m., and Silver Spring Township announced later Thursday morning that it is rescheduling its trick-or-treat night to Friday from 6 to 8 p.m.

East Pennsboro did too. Bunch of whiners. 

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2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

yeah it was mentioned in yesterdays disco.

Sounds like CTP is in the crosshairs....cept for your house.....ya know....atmospheric memory and your Schuylkill county storm bubble :)

I call it the Tamaqua Split. I tried registering it as a trademark but the office folks said no...lol

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Someone in this subforum is going to see some significant gusts and crazy lightning tonight methinks. 

I'm not sure how much lightning there will be but what do I know. Troll me hard if there is. This seems like a torrential downpour/high wind event and hopefully nothing else. (spin ups) 

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47 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

East Pennsboro did too. Bunch of whiners. 

Oh my, there was a discussion in the lunch room this morning about municipalities postponing trick or treat night. There were 4 or 5 of us having a normal conversation when all of a sudden this dude just goes off and says "I'm so sick of hearing sh*t like this...all we're doing is growing up the next generation of p*ssies that can't get a little wet. What is wrong with our culture today?!??"

So...yeah. 

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Picked up 0.50" of rain last night. Sounds like it is going to be an interesting afternoon.

     NWS Eastern Region
@NWSEastern
2h
Potential for severe thunderstorms across much of the East today and tonight. A squall line is expected to develop ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms, a few tornadoes & localized flash flooding are also possible. pic.twitter.com/CI44l06VX1

 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Bubbler86 You are now in the 10% TOR area on the 1630 outlook. 

My specific township has not cancelled trick or treat and I do not have enough candy to try and hit their bags each time a tornado would circle them around to my house, ala Wizard of Oz,  so the kids better get here before that happens or I better hope my aim is top notch tonight.

 

 

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58 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Oh my, there was a discussion in the lunch room this morning about municipalities postponing trick or treat night. There were 4 or 5 of us having a normal conversation when all of a sudden this dude just goes off and says "I'm so sick of hearing sh*t like this...all we're doing is growing up the next generation of p*ssies that can't get a little wet. What is wrong with our culture today?!??"

So...yeah. 

Were you here? :wacko: sounds almost the same as my shop this morning. 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm not sure how much lightning there will be but what do I know. Troll me hard if there is. This seems like a torrential downpour/high wind event and hopefully nothing else. (spin ups) 

This setup reminds me a bit of a Texas March setup actually - as weird as that sounds. Squall lines like this can be no joke. Usually they always underperform here but I have a weird feeling we get some good stuff tonight. 

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Going to go out on a limb here and call this a bit of a surprise for the beginning of the event.   We have had nothing but a light rain event at this point and radar indicates nothing else is imminent.  I understand there is a cold front coming and all hell could break loose for a period but the longevity of the event was progged to be a bit more severe than the reality has turned out to be.   Our first dry slot "bust" of the season. 

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1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Looking down at the Charlestown WV radar, there’s a nice squall line already forming.   I’ll take the over on this one and say this event lives  up to the hype.   Tor warning for Franklin County later 

 

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SPS issued for the region stating gusts of 60 to 80 mph possible with squall line passage.

"

A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to cross Central
Pennsylvania, roughly between 5 and 10 pm. Some areas will see
damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph along this line of storms.
Given how strong the winds are in the lower levels of the
atmosphere, isolated tornadoes are also a possibility.

 

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm not sure how much lightning there will be but what do I know. Troll me hard if there is. This seems like a torrential downpour/high wind event and hopefully nothing else. (spin ups) 

 

18 minutes ago, Festus said:

SPS issued for the region stating gusts of 60 to 80 mph possible with squall line passage.

"

A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to cross Central
Pennsylvania, roughly between 5 and 10 pm. Some areas will see
damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph along this line of storms.
Given how strong the winds are in the lower levels of the
atmosphere, isolated tornadoes are also a possibility.

 

I was just about to post this. Pretty ominous statement out of CTP this afternoon.

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And just like that...Tornado Watch.

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019

TORNADO WATCH 686 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-005-009-013-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-041-043-047-051-
055-057-061-063-065-067-071-075-081-087-093-097-099-107-109-111-
113-119-129-133-010400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0686.191031T1855Z-191101T0400Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                ARMSTRONG           BEDFORD
BLAIR                CAMBRIA             CAMERON
CENTRE               CLARION             CLEARFIELD
CLINTON              COLUMBIA            CUMBERLAND
DAUPHIN              ELK                 FAYETTE
FRANKLIN             FULTON              HUNTINGDON
INDIANA              JEFFERSON           JUNIATA
LANCASTER            LEBANON             LYCOMING
MIFFLIN              MONTOUR             NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY                SCHUYLKILL          SNYDER
SOMERSET             SULLIVAN            UNION
WESTMORELAND         YORK

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18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I agree with you. I think the rain and wind are gonna be wicked this evening. Worst part is it's coming after dark. (for most of us) 

I agree. Anything that can be picked up and moved by wind is either moved or will be by 430. Yesterday i did a battery check on lighting devices too

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3 hours ago, canderson said:

Someone in this subforum is going to see some significant gusts and crazy lightning tonight methinks. 

Def one of the more confident and stronger worded special weather statements I've seen for the area. Severe watch issuance is a quite likely and potentially may come with a tornado watch for the southern counties for potential QLCS tornadoes given the dynamics. Winds not very far aloft are screaming, even 850mb winds on mesoanalysis are showing 45-55 knots over PA. It won't take much for the impending squall line to tap down severe wind gusts. Some CAPE being shown in the south central as well (few to several hundred J/kg) which is notable in this type of later fall setup with the high low level shear present. This lends to the potential for QLCS tornadoes imbedded within the squall line. 

Quote
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
212 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-312215-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
212 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...Severe Weather Expected Later This Afternoon into the Evening
Hours...

A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to cross Central
Pennsylvania, roughly between 5 and 10 pm. Some areas will see
damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph along this line of storms.
Given how strong the winds are in the lower levels of the
atmosphere, isolated tornadoes are also a possibility.

Here is some initial timing as to when severe weather is expected:
Bradford from 5-6 pm, Coudersport, Johnstown, and Somerset County
from 6-7 pm, Wellsboro, Lock Haven, State College, and Altoona
from 7-8 pm, Williamsport, Sunbury, Lewistown, and Carlisle from
730-830 pm, and Laporte, Bloomsburg, Shamokin, Harrisburg, and
Lancaster from 8-930 pm.

Please stay tuned for the latest weather updates, including the
likely issuances of watches and warnings later today.

Lastly, the Laurel's/Alleghenies will be seeing their first flakes of the season late tonight/early tomorrow morning with the remaining moisture behind the front. This may also include the immediate central areas off the Laurel's (UNV/AOO region). Any accums should be little to none, but some of the highest Laurel's areas could get a coating.

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Dewpoint sitting at 70 on my station at the moment... Going to enjoy the remaining pockets of peak foliage here in Linglestown for the next few hours, then embrace the ruckus.  Good luck all!

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28 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said:

Dewpoint sitting at 70 on my station at the moment... Going to enjoy the remaining pockets of peak foliage here in Linglestown for the next few hours, then embrace the ruckus.  Good luck all!

Yeah, tonight looks like it'll wipe out a lot of the remaining foliage. It turned really pretty around here this week so sadly we'll miss a few more days (very late color this year, but I didn't expect much so it was a nice surprise). 

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FROPA came through here with torrential rain but very little wind. Stable boundary layer stayed pretty firm here as it usually does in these type of situations. Probably will be another couple hours before things finally get mixed out post front and the winds ramp up. 

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3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

FROPA came through here with torrential rain but very little wind. Stable boundary layer stayed pretty firm here as it usually does in these type of situations. Probably will be another couple hours before things finally get mixed out post front and the winds ramp up. 

Looks like down in Franklin County they have gusts up to 70, headed pretty much right at harrisburg. 

And moving at 50 mph. Like I says upthread, this is very similar to a Texas March setup.

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