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Tyler Penland

2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.

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The cutoff upper level low is really going to enhance this NWF that’s coming Sunday night. Usually the models don’t really hint at northwest flow until 3 or so days out, but every single model has been showing it for a couple of days now. Even the Euro is showing it and it is not a go to model for NWF. In fact the EPS shows .2” of snow at the Asheville Airport on Avg this past run. The 500mb ULL is going to make this NWF beefier than usual, and could put it in the top 5 NWF events of the past 10 years around WNC.

 

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15 minutes ago, Hvward said:

The cutoff upper level low is really going to enhance this NWF that’s coming Sunday night. Usually the models don’t really hint at northwest flow until 3 or so days out, but every single model has been showing it for a couple of days now. Even the Euro is showing it and it is not a go to model for NWF. In fact the EPS shows .2” of snow at the Asheville Airport on Avg this past run. The 500mb ULL is going to make this NWF beefier than usual, and could put it in the top 5 NWF events of the past 10 years around WNC.

 

Do you have any data on the top 5 NWF events in the past decade?  

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Do you have any data on the top 5 NWF events in the past decade?  

 

For me this is based off of memory, as I am not sure that there is a database that distinguishes between which events were NWF and which events weren’t. So my comment is based off of memory.. take it with a grain of salt lol. What this system does kind of remind me of a bit is the October 31st, 2014 storm. That ULL came barreling over the mountains, similar to how the models show occurring on late Sunday night or Monday am. Even Asheville got 3” of snow from that. This will be a really interesting event imo. As far as dynamics, which is where I start focusing on this far out. A stout lobe of the vort is going to stretch across the Tennessee Valley and as that vort screams into the Apps, the lift will be incredible. With the Great Lakes warm, it’s a recipe for a really stout event. Maybe I should tone down my excitement, but seeing so many NWF signatures on every model really has me optimistic.

 

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2 hours ago, Hvward said:

 

For me this is based off of memory, as I am not sure that there is a database that distinguishes between which events were NWF and which events weren’t. So my comment is based off of memory.. take it with a grain of salt lol. What this system does kind of remind me of a bit is the October 31st, 2014 storm. That ULL came barreling over the mountains, similar to how the models show occurring on late Sunday night or Monday am. Even Asheville got 3” of snow from that. This will be a really interesting event imo. As far as dynamics, which is where I start focusing on this far out. A stout lobe of the vort is going to stretch across the Tennessee Valley and as that vort screams into the Apps, the lift will be incredible. With the Great Lakes warm, it’s a recipe for a really stout event. Maybe I should tone down my excitement, but seeing so many NWF signatures on every model really has me optimistic.

 

I hope you don't take me as questioning your expertise man, I'm a nerd that likes to read and was curious if you knew how to find that data lol.  And please don't tone yourself down, it's not like you're Mike Seidelling it lol.  

 

Thanks for the info as always!

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Models look to be in good agreement for the flow snow Sunday night through Monday.  GSP does point out that their concern is that there is no ensemble support for decent moisture. I never know which one to trust. If you follow the operationals people say you must look at the ensembles and vice-a-versa.

 

I not sure when it was, maybe 7 or 8 years ago, we had a 4 day flow event that put down over 2 feet total. Some of the squalls in that storm were some of the heaviest I've seen. I remember one that put down about an inch and a half in 15 minutes. I think it was in February. 

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The overeating has already begun.  It's my wife's fault for putting the pumpkin pie in the fridge last night lol.  That stuff is irrestible cold!

Has anyone had a look at the ensembles?  Can't really look right now, just wondering if they still aren't agreeing with the operational models on the nwf event Sun/Mon.. 

Happy Thanksgiving, y'all!

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

The overeating has already begun.  It's my wife's fault for putting the pumpkin pie in the fridge last night lol.  That stuff is irrestible cold!

Has anyone had a look at the ensembles?  Can't really look right now, just wondering if they still aren't agreeing with the operational models on the nwf event Sun/Mon.. 

Happy Thanksgiving, y'all!

 

 

I'm not sure what you are referring to.  Last 3 GEFS look great.  As does the 12z operational.   The synoptic features have wiggled a bit but the flow event still looks pretty much the same.  Verbatim 12z GFS is 6-12 for elevations above 4k in my opinion. 

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1 hour ago, MotoWeatherman said:

I'm not sure what you are referring to.  Last 3 GEFS look great.  As does the 12z operational.   The synoptic features have wiggled a bit but the flow event still looks pretty much the same.  Verbatim 12z GFS is 6-12 for elevations above 4k in my opinion. 

Something I read in the GSP AFD yesterday about the ensembles not matching the operational runs.  I haven't been able to get my link for the gefs to work in a few weeks.  Perhaps I misread something...

 

That's good to hear though, thank you!

 

Edit:cleared my browser and now my links are working.  Yeah, I obviously misread something. 

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4 hours ago, Buckethead said:

Something I read in the GSP AFD yesterday about the ensembles not matching the operational runs.  I haven't been able to get my link for the gefs to work in a few weeks.  Perhaps I misread something...

 

 

Many GFS ensemble members in particular remain unimpressed with this setup
and feature little to no snow anywhere but the highest peaks,
however, so confidence in a significant NW flow snow event is
generally low.

This is from  GSP's  afternoon AFD. They have mentioned this several times in the last day or so. I trust our guys though.

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Gsp mentioning the slight possibility of thundersnow early Monday morning. 
 



Wouldn’t surprise me one bit. The dynamics will certainly be there. The lift is going be pretty intense with the 500mb low moving over top.
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12 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

I'm not "as" excited as I was 2 days ago about the event, but hey snow is snow at this point.

Yeah models aren't as bullish as they were couple of days ago.

Almost such a fast flow that the surface feature outruns the UL. Cuts off moisture transport. 

Normally nam has a wet bias but it's been getting dryer each run.

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I don't take each run of the models at long range as the gospel. I look at trends and one thing is for certain there is a lot of energy flying around and with the winter solstice on our heels.There's somthing about season changes that gets things interesting my biggest snows here in marion was early to mid Dec and of course 93. Definitely has my attention anyway hope everyone had a great thanksgiving.

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2 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Currently have my third thunderstorm of the day.  This one is pretty loud...saw a little graupel on my deck.

Same here. Took me by surprise. What's the rule "If it thunders after you watch football and drink bourbon all day it'll snow in 24 hours". Something like that.

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