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September 2019 Mid/Long Range


mattie g
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21 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Recent CFS runs think the next month will feature slightly above normal temps and slightly below normal precip.

So yeah, effin hot and dry.

Slightly above normal in September doesn’t imply hot to me, especially if the warmer anomalies happen later in the month.

Either way, we know that, come the end of the month, some folks will be on the lookout for white rain at 384...

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Slightly above normal in September doesn’t imply hot to me, especially if the warmer anomalies happen later in the month.

Either way, we know that, come the end of the month, some folks will be on the lookout for white rain at 384...

I was mostly just being facetious. Wouldn't surprise me if the general dryness continued for a while though.

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23 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Recent CFS runs think the next month will feature slightly above normal temps and slightly below normal precip.

So yeah, effin hot and dry.

Fits the pattern of recent Septembers, with maybe not the extreme heat we have experienced recently, certainly the Western Atlantic waters are warm and Sept is normally not a wet month climo- wise.

However, I would take a guess and say any real Sept. heat is short-lived. The NE PAc warm pool supports these High pressure visits we are getting and will continue to get for another week. 

Maybe mid-month warmth followed by a drop again.  I don't see any indications of a wetter pattern though.  Some modeling a week ago was indicating a cool October.   

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I was mostly just being facetious. Wouldn't surprise me if the general dryness continued for a while though.

I figured, but wasn’t sure!

Im done with dry. I don’t a wet and miserable fall, but September would be an ideal time to break into some wetter weather. Dry Octobers are great...but not after 3-4 months of being parched.

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  • 2 weeks later...
2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

So I guess those runs that were showing the first major cooldown and legit fall-like temps mar end of month were NOT onto something...

GFS/GEFS seem to have a bias toward cool downs at the end of their runs.  Ian commented on this a few weeks ago on Twitter.  Might give us (and JB) a lot of false alarms of cold this winter if it continues.

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31 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I’m assuming no unicorns will pop on the long-range globals by the end of this month.

Maybe next year.

In the long range the advertised h5 look on the GEFS reminds me of what we saw a lot last winter lol. Looks good up top, lots of red in the NA, low heights off of the Canadian Maritimes, but then there is a huge ridge in the EPac/GOA with downstream trough planted in the W US. Leaves our region with at least weak ridging. I mentioned this in the disco thread last night- if that NA look is real, the developing trough to our NE may end up influencing our region more than the models are currently depicting by the end of the month. Still over a week out, and lots can change as we know.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Longer winter wavelengths would help a lot if we had that beast of a -NAO with a 50/50 low underneath. But a deep upper low off the west coast is never what we want.

Yeah and even now, if that block is real, the vortex underneath might build westward and give our ridge party an early end.

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Don S always has some interesting data insights regarding the various indices. This time the focus is the PNA. Although it seems many of his observations recently  point to a warm Fall. Well, in my many years of following Don, he simply calls it like he sees it . When the historical associations and data point to colder outcomes he will mention that too.  

donsutherland1

  • Location: New York

The latest PNA forecast shows a dramatic drop that could take place over a very short period of time.

 

PNA09232019-1.jpg

 

Since daily PNA data have been available beginning in 1950, there have been 13 cases where the PNA dropped 3.000 sigma or more during a 5-day period in the September 20-October 10 timeframe.

 

In the New York City region, such a development typically provided a signal that the remainder of meteorological autumn (October and November) would have similar temperature anomalies as September (9/13 or 69% of cases).

 

When it comes to a warm September, as appears very likely this year, 6/8 (75%) cases were followed by a warm anomaly over the October-November period. Both cool cases had cool October anomalies.

 

In short, the PNA appears to be offering a signal that the above normal temperature regime of September will likely predominate during the autumn.

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Last few runs o fthe GFS have backed off some really hot looks middle to late next week and are bringing in much cooler air Thursday into Friday - keeping it around for the remainder of the run. Today's 6z even wants to bless us with some rain next Thursday/Friday as energy dives down with cool air behind it.

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