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September Weather Discussion 2019


dryslot
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Next Thursday could be downright putrid if that wave forms on the front and we get stratiform rain. Prob like mid to upper 40s and rain type stuff if that happened. 

Hooefully it's just cloudy and 50s. Definitely a sign of getting deeper into the season. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Next Thursday could be downright putrid if that wave forms on the front and we get stratiform rain. Prob like mid to upper 40s and rain type stuff if that happened. 

Hooefully it's just cloudy and 50s. Definitely a sign of getting deeper into the season. 

Mid level magic band for Dendrite. 

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Next Thursday could be downright putrid if that wave forms on the front and we get stratiform rain. Prob like mid to upper 40s and rain type stuff if that happened. 

Hooefully it's just cloudy and 50s. Definitely a sign of getting deeper into the season. 

TORCH!

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Well two things. I didn’t mind the heat and humidity as it’s much easier for outdoor activities. Also, as we all mentioned, it really wasn’t so intense like 2018. That was a brutal summer. At least we got a break now and then, especially August. The second thing, don’t get me too confused with Kevin lol. The weather has been on the boring side, so I’m just clowning around. I try not to be too serious in life unless I have to be. 

I finally spent some time cleaning out my attachments, so I can up my posting game a bit. Back to science soo enough. 

You is me and he is I.

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32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's a strong Scooter high. We'd prob be able to work with that on like 11/15 or 11/20 even ala 2004. 

Yeah who knows. Love that look. 

BTW, regarding your comment about the ice look at the gtg in 2017.....remember we said something similar about this past January and the sneaky cold oozing further SE then most think. That was a great event. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The days where the colors pop from grey background though. That will be great to see. I love those days. 

Yeah the saturation seems naturally turned up when not white washed with harsh light.  

Either way, next week looks wet for multiple days in at least NNE with the boundary.  Plenty of time for the location of that front to change though. 

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15 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah who knows. Love that look. 

BTW, regarding your comment about the ice look at the gtg in 2017.....remember we said something similar about this past January and the sneaky cold oozing further SE then most think. That was a great event. 

Ya and the nam was on top of ML Warming w snow accums per usual 

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Mm ... it's also quite possible that dreariness is overdone ...

That's a big high, and it's not there for not - it's emerging out of a strong confluence.  The whole flow could trend more suppressive. 

But otherwise, it's early October ... yeah, it's time to do those 50s thru 24-hour rain rates of .23"  It's not really 'suffering,' so much as facing inevitability for the realists among us.  Now... perhaps in another 10 or 20 years of GW, we'll have cooked up a new climate where it's more like November 3rd for 50s thru 24-hour rain rates of .23"? I'm just thinking we aren't so far along that we can't get some typology more consistent with Octobers of lore once in a while.  We just need to avoid the early snow, which tends to eerily portend a failed winter when it does  - whole 'nother oddity. 

I still like the overall notion that this appears to be a seasonal "seam" week - by this time next weekend, warm regions of the continent outside of the Gulf states/Flor and deep SW are more like 564 dm thickness, where as contrasting before hand, it's 570 or better over large region(s) south of ORD-Logan axis... And, the return flows out there don't re load those regions with summer pith.. That's all more than less a hallmark of the a thematic flip toward a cooler paradigm in a more permanent sense of it which is ( obviously ) seasonally driven for me. 

Baby steps for winter lovers.. gotta crawl before you can walk and run.  Well, in this case, 'roll-over' before you can crawl but we're getting there.

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It gets harder ...

I mean, we could get a slab of 20 C 850 air and end up inverted real easily at this time of year, simply because we cannot afford to adulterate or dim the solar input ... at all, else we can't expand boundary layers and yadda yadda yadda...  It's almost got to be a DP of 60, and 18C or greater at 850 mb level,  within a WSW flow from the surface to 200 mb around an epic ideally positioned, nearly historic 500H ridge beast to make 90 - this sort of description would yield 101 in June.

Something like that... just being spatial in my description by we get the point. 

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On 9/26/2019 at 6:07 AM, moneypitmike said:

Can someone remind me when the torch is?  I want to be sure I have time to install.  TIA.

image.thumb.png.091b739fb0c58669f2ef7e2029e97f57.png

 

On 9/26/2019 at 6:25 AM, CoastalWx said:

Well today and Saturday 80s

 

On 9/26/2019 at 6:50 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Do me a favor . Track that forecast with the actual highs. See how much higher they are. You’ll have min 2 days of 80’s and max of 4 by the time this hot period for the time of year is over 

Okay, here's what I've got so far.

Thursday wound up at 75

Yesterday was 70

Today--the torch day--is currently 73 at 1:00pm..  We'll see how the rest of the afternoon goes.

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15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That's great, but my point is ORH was 73F at 1pm and he's almost 400ft lower.

ORH is currently 71.6*.  My Accuritate is showing 73*.  My wife's 'fwiw-thereometer with the bird on it' is 71*.

Edit:  ORH is 73.  No change to the rest of my post.  It is what it is.  Maybe Jet Blue passed the sensor.

 

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1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

80 fail perhaps in Weymouth?  Probably not---but possible.

It’s a possibility. I started thinking this yesterday when it looked like return airmass at the surface wasn’t going to be as good as it looked a few days ago. Guidance was warmer then. Would be a fail from me 3 days out. 

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I'll be driving the 1.25 miles to ORH in about 20 minutes to pick up my wife so I can see how the car thermometer changes.  This is the most convenient airport for me ever.  There are so few flights, if I hear a jet coming in for a landing, I check to see the airline (Delta today), wait a few minutes, grab a DD and then head up.  Even if I hit the 2 lights as red, I still get there in under 5 minutes.

FWIW--the Accurite is still showing 73.

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