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shaggy

Dorian

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10 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

18z HWRF Comes inland about Ocean Isle this time and puts ILM, JAX and New Bern dead in its sights then to Swanquarter and exits around KDH.

Yeah that gets the eastern half of the state pretty good if its got a big wind field...probably strong TS gust from the Triangle to I-95 and cane gust from there to the coast....even you might get decent TS gust in Eno on that track....

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latest ICON still hitting in same spot, been 10 miles either side of this point for a bunch of runs now...given the size and strength the winds on the wind map seem fairly reasonable maybe knock 10 mph off them to be safe...

us_model-en-087-0_moddeu_2019090300_77_480_149.thumb.png.38b7d35fa651647ae9da34e24b44bb01.png

 

us_model-en-087-0_moddeu_2019090300_77_480_211.thumb.png.8c44544cf3845cf4b261f393e574baed.png

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b7847f1e8ee1f13cc30562b0d1d68e95.jpg

Dorian looks positively gross. A solid 38 mb rise over the last 28 hours. I don’t think a good trend for NC...

Most of the European ensembles show weaker storms exhibiting movement further to the west before getting shuttled to the N and NE by this weakness. We’ll see if this pans out but I wouldn’t be surprised for the storm track to be on the “left” side of the track set by the NHC.

In regards to strength, we’re going to see some more free fall before Dorian can get untangled from the Bahamas and out into unbothered, untapped Gulf Stream water. Wouldn’t be shocked to see a 967ish storm clinging to dear life to cat 2 status at some point tomorrow before it can get out of its own way.

That being said, I have this mental image from history of fearsome NC storms devolving into messy category 1/2s on approach. Usually I think this would happen, but Dorian is a nice test subject to see what can buck the trend. Moderately favorable conditions and Gulf Stream might pull back this thing into a formidable major before it hits the continental shelf. I don’t think sunset beach/oak island is out of the woods from taking this on the chin as a 2/3.

Will be nice to actually track a storm tomorrow instead of opening RadarScope and refreshing to make sure that yes, the eyewall hasn’t moved and that’s not just a frame from a couple of hours ago.


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We have a few more days for the models to iron out the details as far as NC goes......intensity forecasting is hit and miss but its hard to see how its more than a Cat 2 up this way....exact track will as usual be very important to who see's what effects especially away from the coast.....the Euro and Ukie are the farthest east but they are also very strong with the storm and the ICON and GFS which is weaker with the storm are west just inshore along the NC coast.....for SC it looks likely that most of the coastal counties will experience at least gust to hurricane force.

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The "traditional" hurricane models are sure saying that Dorian stays well offshore even in NC, and with still no west component evident on sat or radar, I have a feeling that this will verify. There has been a clear west bias with synoptic models and the HWRF all along. One thing is for certain IMO is that FL and GA are in the clear mostly, the hurricane watches/warnings there are overdone and should be cancelled. 

Screen Shot 2019-09-03 at 8.01.24 AM.png

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I've been disconnected for a few days here in Nags Head (got engaged!) really trying not to think about this storm messing up the second half of our vacation but we were placed under a mandatory evacuation for non-residents yesterday. Being my family owns a home, it does not pertain to us. To me this looks like the prototypical NC cutter storm. A sloppy hurricane feeling continental dry air and westerly shear being pushed ots. You can see the models all make this an extremely lopsided "half-a-cane" by the time it gets here Interacting with the trough it has a heavy rain band on it's NW side and very little activity on the south and east side. This is what I expect the storm to evolve into once it gets ejected into that NE trajectory.

Key Questions Though:

1) How much wind energy will be retained? If I was a betting man I would say this would be an 80-90 mph storm by the time it gets here. It's former state has zero bearing up this far as it will be in an entirely different set of atmospheric conditions (and it is already rapidly weakening)

2) How much rain will be generated inland? If that NW band develops I'd expect some 10 inch amounts. Flash flooding becomes a main issue

3) Will it make LF and does it matter? A lopsided system spreading out wind energy with the north and west sides being strongest will not need a proper LF to see the main impacts. 

4) How long will impacts last? Storm really looks to be honking by the time it gets here. This may be a quick 12 hour event with a 2 hour heavy blow. 

5) The money question: Should we leave? Saturday and Sunday after the storm look wonderful. My house is on the water but has weathered far worse impacts (Isabel being the worst) and this does not appear to have the same bite. I am having a tough time leaving tomorrow thinking about getting so see some nice winds and having a beautiful weekend with the beach to ourselves after the blow.

Thoughts?

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A common subject on the main thread has been model performance but I do not think they have performed as poorly as some on the rhetoric emanating from there. Storms rounding a ridge are notoriously difficult to predict where the northward turn begins. The new GFS, in particular, was one of the first to identify a slowdown and turn before the mainland. I commented on the thread Friday that this was noticeable, despite most of the operational means still showing a track well into Florida. Once most of the models on Friday showed a stall and a turn North, details are everything but well within what I would consider the 3-day margin for error. it just mattered more because of the implications of where the turn happened. If this was in the middle of the Atlantic, no one would notice. But being the difference in 80-100 miles meant a monster storm sitting over Florida or sitting in the Bahamas this was extremely seen as poor model performance. I disagree. From Thursday night through now (Tuesday) I do not think they missed by much at all. However the margin of error was so thin and consequences at the coast so dire that it amplifies any model errors. Just my .02!

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On 8/23/2019 at 11:01 AM, shaggy said:

As a side note my nephew started coastal Carolina the year Mathew hit. He has had to evacuate every year he has been there. He is a senior this year but ow his sister is a freshman at coastal carolina so we will see if their curse continues.

And he is evacuating again. This makes 4 years in a row.

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my curiousity is, when wil the transition to extra tropical begin, will we see a transition of the rain shield to the nw once it get to the nc coast or will it stay mainly east sided

 

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12 minutes ago, rowjimmy73 said:

my curiousity is, when wil the transition to extra tropical begin, will we see a transition of the rain shield to the nw once it get to the nc coast or will it stay mainly east sided

 

This /\ /\ made all the difference with Matthew (as far as heaviest precip being on the west side).  I live near Fayetteville, NC and watched what that can do first hand

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yes up here in danville we had a good rain from matthew. im not certain how much rain even tho its been dryish lately we can take without incurring more damage. still recovering up here from michael, let alone the severe weve had over the summer. 

 

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I've been disconnected for a few days here in Nags Head (got engaged!) really trying not to think about this storm messing up the second half of our vacation but we were placed under a mandatory evacuation for non-residents yesterday. Being my family owns a home, it does not pertain to us. To me this looks like the prototypical NC cutter storm. A sloppy hurricane feeling continental dry air and westerly shear being pushed ots. You can see the models all make this an extremely lopsided "half-a-cane" by the time it gets here Interacting with the trough it has a heavy rain band on it's NW side and very little activity on the south and east side. This is what I expect the storm to evolve into once it gets ejected into that NE trajectory.

Key Questions Though:

1) How much wind energy will be retained? If I was a betting man I would say this would be an 80-90 mph storm by the time it gets here. It's former state has zero bearing up this far as it will be in an entirely different set of atmospheric conditions (and it is already rapidly weakening)

2) How much rain will be generated inland? If that NW band develops I'd expect some 10 inch amounts. Flash flooding becomes a main issue

3) Will it make LF and does it matter? A lopsided system spreading out wind energy with the north and west sides being strongest will not need a proper LF to see the main impacts. 

4) How long will impacts last? Storm really looks to be honking by the time it gets here. This may be a quick 12 hour event with a 2 hour heavy blow. 

5) The money question: Should we leave? Saturday and Sunday after the storm look wonderful. My house is on the water but has weathered far worse impacts (Isabel being the worst) and this does not appear to have the same bite. I am having a tough time leaving tomorrow thinking about getting so see some nice winds and having a beautiful weekend with the beach to ourselves after the blow.

Thoughts?

If you stay  be prepared to have no utilities those last 2 days, and that's assuming you can leave, Hwy 64 might be blocked by water and trees for a few days after the storm....the other side to this is what if it pulls a Bertha or Fran or even Irene and hits a pressure drop the last 12 hrs and instead of a weakening storm you have a strengthening wind field around the core...just be prepared to be there for more than the couple of days without power etc.

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11 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

If you stay  be prepared to have no utilities those last 2 days, and that's assuming you can leave, Hwy 64 might be blocked by water and trees for a few days after the storm....the other side to this is what if it pulls a Bertha or Fran or even Irene and hits a pressure drop the last 12 hrs and instead of a weakening storm you have a strengthening wind field around the core...just be prepared to be there for more than the couple of days without power etc.

We don't have AC so power isn't really an issue. Got several YETI's I can fill with ice. I'm pretty much directly across from the bridge to Manteo so getting off the island shouldn't be an issue. Wasn't planning to leave until Sunday anyway. Even with Isabel this spot was not hit hardm outside the main beach road. We own the lot behind us and can park cars there assuming any overwash makes it under this house, which would require a 6-8 foot surge and I don't see that from a storm coming from the SW instead of the east. I think southern beaches and Hatteras have much more impact.

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4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I've been disconnected for a few days here in Nags Head (got engaged!) really trying not to think about this storm messing up the second half of our vacation but we were placed under a mandatory evacuation for non-residents yesterday. Being my family owns a home, it does not pertain to us. To me this looks like the prototypical NC cutter storm. A sloppy hurricane feeling continental dry air and westerly shear being pushed ots. You can see the models all make this an extremely lopsided "half-a-cane" by the time it gets here Interacting with the trough it has a heavy rain band on it's NW side and very little activity on the south and east side. This is what I expect the storm to evolve into once it gets ejected into that NE trajectory.

Key Questions Though:

1) How much wind energy will be retained? If I was a betting man I would say this would be an 80-90 mph storm by the time it gets here. It's former state has zero bearing up this far as it will be in an entirely different set of atmospheric conditions (and it is already rapidly weakening)

2) How much rain will be generated inland? If that NW band develops I'd expect some 10 inch amounts. Flash flooding becomes a main issue

3) Will it make LF and does it matter? A lopsided system spreading out wind energy with the north and west sides being strongest will not need a proper LF to see the main impacts. 

4) How long will impacts last? Storm really looks to be honking by the time it gets here. This may be a quick 12 hour event with a 2 hour heavy blow. 

5) The money question: Should we leave? Saturday and Sunday after the storm look wonderful. My house is on the water but has weathered far worse impacts (Isabel being the worst) and this does not appear to have the same bite. I am having a tough time leaving tomorrow thinking about getting so see some nice winds and having a beautiful weekend with the beach to ourselves after the blow.

Thoughts?

Buy lots of BEER & Enjoy!  

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3 hours ago, rowjimmy73 said:

yes up here in danville we had a good rain from matthew. im not certain how much rain even tho its been dryish lately we can take without incurring more damage. still recovering up here from michael, let alone the severe weve had over the summer. 

 

I don’t expect much IMBY other than a breeze.  Doubt we see much rain.  After four days without power during Michael last year, I’m just not in the mood.  As far OTS as possible is what I’m cheering for.  We’ve had a long string of evening thunderstorms and heavy rains up until about a couple of weeks ago and we’ve since dried out.  So I think we could handle the rain here.  I just dislike the wind.

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Latest Euro run still the east outlier going over Cape Lookout then just off the OBX though if it has a 50-75 miles wide eye then they would easily be in the center.....wind map has 50+ winds right on the Triangle doorstep...if the track is any further north than this ( all other models are slightly north of this ) then most of eastern NC would be strong TS winds with hurricane gust and the Triangle would at least get gust into the 50's most likely.....again it will have a lot to do with the wind field and the trough interactions on the NW side...Euro much slower though not getting here till Friday day...

It just hard to say how accurate these maps are, they did great with Matthew and Flo...I think

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2019_05L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_11.html

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019090312_78_480_379.thumb.png.c8edb8f3926f7ab3f20d1e16f6ddca90.png

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From Raleigh nws.

Late Thursday night Hurricane Dorian will be located just
northeast of Cape Fear, NC with dangerous winds continuing
across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills of North Carolina. Some
impacts could be significant with possible damage to roofing and
siding materials. Rainfall totals from Dorian will be 2 to 6
inches with locally higher amounts possible. On the northwestern
edge of Dorian rainfall amounts will quickly fall off due to
dry air being entrained from an approaching cold front. For
example, amounts across the Triad will likely only be a couple
of hundredths of an inch with 1 to 3 inches possible over the
Triad.

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MHX NWS

However, it must be stressed that even minor adjustments in
the track could result in significant changes to the threats, and
all residents of eastern North Carolina should be preparing for
hurricane force winds and interests vulnerable to storm surge should
prepare their properties and stay tuned to subsequent forecasts as
surge forecasts are refined in the next day or two.

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From the 5:00PM Advisory..

"The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina

and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning."

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 78.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Surf City,
North Carolina.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward to Duck, North
Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse
and Pamlico Rivers.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Savannah River to Edisto
Beach, South Carolina, and from South Santee River, South Carolina,
to Surf City, North Carolina.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended north of Duck, North Carolina
to the North Carolina/Virginia border.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the
North Carolina/Virginia border northward to Chincoteague,
Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward.

The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning
from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet, Florida.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Jupiter
Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Surf City NC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City NC to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Sebastian Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

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And with that, both the parents and in-laws are in Hurricane Warnings. I already know my parents are planning on staying in Shallotte. I need to see what the in-laws are planning in the Porter's Neck area. They're really low, with their back up against a tidal creek off Middle Sound.

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