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Iceagewhereartthou

Looking Ahead to Fall and Winter

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On 9/9/2019 at 1:32 AM, Iceagewhereartthou said:

GFS continues to show pattern change around the 18th with trough finally coming to the east. Brings 30s all the way down to Pennsylvania and W Virginia by the 20th and 50s all the way to gulf coast by 21st. SE ridge quickly back in place by 23rd though.

Plan on SE ridge flexing it’s muscle, 97% of the time, the next 6 months! :(

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I would like some more well versed insight on this as I’m still a rookie but my last look the models showed a +PNA and a -AO.  Towards the 20th through September.  Wouldn’t that lax the heat on us ?

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The QBO has been positive for 10 straight months with the last reading at 9.97 for August,peaking in May at 14.59 so trending down.Interesting to see if it can flip to negative before winter which would be good.

Euro going colder west/warmer east for now for DJF.

 

 

convert_image-gorax-green-007-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-3yDScA.png

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for many of us Fall will start tonight (weather wise):

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 128 AM Tuesday... The post-frontal stratocumulus/stratus should be mostly confined to the Piedmont Wednesday morning, then skies are expected to become partly to mostly sunny in all areas in the afternoon. A refreshing NE breeze will advect in much drier and cooler air. Expect highs only in the 70s, except a few lower 80s near the NC/SC border area. Then, mainly clear and cool Wednesday night. The most comfortable night in recent memory. Lows in the 50s, with some upper 40s north- central Piedmont. &&

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On 9/14/2019 at 1:15 PM, NC_hailstorm said:

The QBO has been positive for 10 straight months with the last reading at 9.97 for August,peaking in May at 14.59 so trending down.Interesting to see if it can flip to negative before winter which would be good.

Euro going colder west/warmer east for now for DJF.

 

 

convert_image-gorax-green-007-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-3yDScA.png

That looks like the last 2 winters in the SE! Wouldn’t be shocked at all

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I would also watch the the gulf stream very closely and the AMOC(Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation)This has been a hotspot to watch from about Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod maybe a bit further into Canada.

Solar minimum weakens the circulation,moving it further south in my opinion.2009-10 is a prime example to what to look for and QBO flipped to negative halfway through that year.Cut off the gulf stream and you most likely get colder.

http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/~tezer/PAPERS/2015_GPC_AMOC_SL.pdf

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SEP 23
Sunny
91°68°
10%
WSW 6 mph 49%
TUE
 
SEP 24
Mostly Sunny
89°66°
10%
NNE 6 mph 53%
WED
 
SEP 25
Sunny
89°64°
0%
E 6 mph 45%
THU
 
SEP 26
Mostly Sunny
95°69°
10%
W 6 mph 49%
FRI
 
SEP 27
Sunny
93°69°
10%
ENE 6 mph 51%
SAT
 
SEP 28
Mostly Sunny
92°68°
10%
ESE 5 mph 55%
SUN
 
SEP 29
Mostly Sunny
94°67°
10%
NE 6 mph 54%
MON
 
SEP 30
Sunny
92°67°
10%
ENE 7 mph 54%
TUE
 
OCT 1
Mostly Sunny
90°66°
10%
ENE 6 mph 56%
WED
 
OCT 2
Sunny
90°66°
20%
ENE 6 mph 57

 

AHHH, those cool crisp temps of Fall! Those refreshing, breezy, walking around without melting days and AC cutting, window opening, comfortable sleeping nights! 

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Something to get everyone in the mood! :snowman:

https://www.postandcourier.com/news/just-a-great-time-to-be-had-as-historic-snowfall/article_cfb30940-f0d6-11e7-af89-bf9556afe827.html

 Will those of us south of I40 see anything fun this winter? 

Will the upstate finally cash in on any of the fun those around us have been enjoying? 

Will it be record warmth wall to wall?

Will Dec bring a third consecutive early season snow? (nah)

Will Feb usher in a third straight "can't believe this is happening again early spring" Feb? (Probably)

Will Columbia break it's snow drought? (last measurable snow at CAE was Feb 12, 2014; On Dec 1st it will have been 2118 days)

 

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Thankfully, as opposed to where I lived in Greensboro, I now live north of I-40.  Unfortunately, i now live S/E of I-85.  Game over!  Winter cancel!!!

 

I wish I was here for last year's one-footer. :( I haven't seen snow in a long while...

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50 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

Thankfully, as opposed to where I lived in Greensboro, I now live north of I-40.  Unfortunately, i now live S/E of I-85.  Game over!  Winter cancel!!!

 

I wish I was here for last year's one-footer. :( I haven't seen snow in a long while...

Lets be very clear...it was 14".  

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Accuweather’s 2019-2020 winter “forecast” for the southeast US:

Quote

While the Northeast braces for snow and cold, the Southeast is more likely to experience a wet couple of months.

Water temperatures from the Gulf of Mexico to the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts are running higher than normal, Pastelok said.

As storms move into the east early on in the season, the warm water could generate a significant amount of rain.

However, it’s not out of the question that the region could experience a winter storm, similar to last season, which brings snow or ice to areas like Winston-Salem, Charlotte or Asheville.

We’ll see I suppose.

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Accuweather predicts a snowy winter for the Northeast.  Shocking!

But a winter storm "could" hit some N/W areas of the Southeast.  No, at least one wintry event of some sort is basically guaranteed in these parts (even if it's small), so it's not much of a "could", IMO.

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3 hours ago, Buckethead said:

If any of you want to increase your snow chances there are several homes for sale in my neighborhood.  We get some pretty decent nwf events. 

How much???

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3 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

How much???

If I remember from when We were buying, there were homes ranging from 200k all the way up to 450-500k in Wolf Laurel.  I tried to push the wife real hard on a couple homes in there along with one over in between Barnardsville and Burnsville but she nixed that idea due to her having to get out when it snowed and I’m out of town for work.  I don’t know what the big deal is about a bunch of snow above 4000’.....

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BAM Official 2019-2020 Winter Forecast

Jon Miller is joined by Michael Clark of BAMWx.com to discuss BAM's Official Winter of 2019-2020 Forecast.  Clark believes the United States could be in for a Top Eight to Top Twelve coldest winter.

The key a anomalous Pacific SST during a rate El Nino Modoki Pattern

2014/2015  1977/1978

 

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On 10/2/2019 at 8:14 PM, WxKnurd said:

If I remember from when We were buying, there were homes ranging from 200k all the way up to 450-500k in Wolf Laurel.  I tried to push the wife real hard on a couple homes in there along with one over in between Barnardsville and Burnsville but she nixed that idea due to her having to get out when it snowed and I’m out of town for work.  I don’t know what the big deal is about a bunch of snow above 4000’.....

Yeah, that's the price range...and up.  Occasionally you can find a really good deal up here too.  And as long as you have 4wd the snow isnt any problem up here.  We have road maintenance staff that do a great job plowing. 

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9 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Man, this is really gonna make all those yootoob hypers look silly.  They might lose a few subscribers over this!  :blink::lol:

Hehe, the good news is we can still score.  Last year was a torching winter, but this area and yours still ended up well above normal snowfall because of one big snowstorm.  It just takes one.

Likewise, we can have a cold winter and get unlucky and end up not getting much snow, too.

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11 hours ago, superjames1992 said:

Winter cancel. :gun_bandana::snowman::axe:

IMAGE%20-%20for%20101719%20-%20U.S.%20ma

Seems like they're just betting the streak here. The upper midwest/ northern rockies have been consistently below normal, with the rest of the country being above for the past couple of years now. Not only is this forecast not anything ground breaking, it doesn't seem like it would have taken too much thought or forecasting talent. "Hey, how are we going to draw our map this year?" "Let's just go with what's been happening over the past couple of years and call it a day."  60 seconds later: "Here you go boss." 

And my guess is this will be spot on. 

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10 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Seems like they're just betting the streak here. The upper midwest/ northern rockies have been consistently below normal, with the rest of the country being above for the past couple of years now. Not only is this forecast not anything ground breaking, it doesn't seem like it would have taken too much thought or forecasting talent. "Hey, how are we going to draw our map this year?" "Let's just go with what's been happening over the past couple of years and call it a day."  60 seconds later: "Here you go boss." 

And my guess is this will be spot on. 

I don't know about that map..... You can't have a ridge in the west as the predominant pattern and have a warm east coast all winter. It just doesn't work like that..... Someone will have a below average winter. My call this winter, for NC, is for a normal winter when everything is averaged out at the end of the season. That will feel real nice compared to what we have had to deal with the last several winters. The ski resorts should have a decent winter.

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