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Iceagewhereartthou

Looking Ahead to Fall and Winter

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On 9/9/2019 at 1:32 AM, Iceagewhereartthou said:

GFS continues to show pattern change around the 18th with trough finally coming to the east. Brings 30s all the way down to Pennsylvania and W Virginia by the 20th and 50s all the way to gulf coast by 21st. SE ridge quickly back in place by 23rd though.

Plan on SE ridge flexing it’s muscle, 97% of the time, the next 6 months! :(

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I would like some more well versed insight on this as I’m still a rookie but my last look the models showed a +PNA and a -AO.  Towards the 20th through September.  Wouldn’t that lax the heat on us ?

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The QBO has been positive for 10 straight months with the last reading at 9.97 for August,peaking in May at 14.59 so trending down.Interesting to see if it can flip to negative before winter which would be good.

Euro going colder west/warmer east for now for DJF.

 

 

convert_image-gorax-green-007-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-3yDScA.png

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for many of us Fall will start tonight (weather wise):

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 128 AM Tuesday... The post-frontal stratocumulus/stratus should be mostly confined to the Piedmont Wednesday morning, then skies are expected to become partly to mostly sunny in all areas in the afternoon. A refreshing NE breeze will advect in much drier and cooler air. Expect highs only in the 70s, except a few lower 80s near the NC/SC border area. Then, mainly clear and cool Wednesday night. The most comfortable night in recent memory. Lows in the 50s, with some upper 40s north- central Piedmont. &&

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On 9/14/2019 at 1:15 PM, NC_hailstorm said:

The QBO has been positive for 10 straight months with the last reading at 9.97 for August,peaking in May at 14.59 so trending down.Interesting to see if it can flip to negative before winter which would be good.

Euro going colder west/warmer east for now for DJF.

 

 

convert_image-gorax-green-007-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-3yDScA.png

That looks like the last 2 winters in the SE! Wouldn’t be shocked at all

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I would also watch the the gulf stream very closely and the AMOC(Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation)This has been a hotspot to watch from about Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod maybe a bit further into Canada.

Solar minimum weakens the circulation,moving it further south in my opinion.2009-10 is a prime example to what to look for and QBO flipped to negative halfway through that year.Cut off the gulf stream and you most likely get colder.

http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/~tezer/PAPERS/2015_GPC_AMOC_SL.pdf

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SEP 23
Sunny
91°68°
10%
WSW 6 mph 49%
TUE
 
SEP 24
Mostly Sunny
89°66°
10%
NNE 6 mph 53%
WED
 
SEP 25
Sunny
89°64°
0%
E 6 mph 45%
THU
 
SEP 26
Mostly Sunny
95°69°
10%
W 6 mph 49%
FRI
 
SEP 27
Sunny
93°69°
10%
ENE 6 mph 51%
SAT
 
SEP 28
Mostly Sunny
92°68°
10%
ESE 5 mph 55%
SUN
 
SEP 29
Mostly Sunny
94°67°
10%
NE 6 mph 54%
MON
 
SEP 30
Sunny
92°67°
10%
ENE 7 mph 54%
TUE
 
OCT 1
Mostly Sunny
90°66°
10%
ENE 6 mph 56%
WED
 
OCT 2
Sunny
90°66°
20%
ENE 6 mph 57

 

AHHH, those cool crisp temps of Fall! Those refreshing, breezy, walking around without melting days and AC cutting, window opening, comfortable sleeping nights! 

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