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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting

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21 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Hi carver. ISOTHERM'S forcast scares me too lol. I dont want him to be right if we have any chance this winter. Why do you think the epo/wpo are going positive? Is it the mjo moving to unfavorable phases? I am still clueless with that.

MJO is tricky right now because the phases that correspond to cold during fall are not the same as the ones that do so during winter.  Right now, we are just about two and a half weeks from met winter beginning.   So, it kind of has one foot in and one foot out in terms of...Do we use the fall phase correlations or the winter?  

Seems to me that outside of the GEFS, the western ridge is still a consistent ridge on LR modeling.  Probably has been more a PNA ridge thane EPO so far IMHO.  Either will work, though they do change precip amounts here.  Also, don't want those ridges so tall that a trough tucks into the NW under it.  

A good quote from a poster a few years back...we know we are in trouble if we are having to watch MJO phases.  Now, the MJO carries a ton of weight in my book.  What the poster was basically saying is that a good pattern will often override the MJO influence.  Right now the pattern is pretty good...and I haven't looked an MJO phase in about a week.  LOL.  

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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

MJO is tricky right now because the phases that correspond to cold during fall are not the same as the ones that do so during winter.  Right now, we are just about two and a half weeks from met winter beginning.   So, it kind of has one foot in and one foot out in terms of...Do we use the fall phase correlations or the winter?  

Seems to me that outside of the GEFS, the western ridge is still a consistent ridge on modeling.  Probably has been more a PNA ridge thane EPO so far IMHO.  Either will work, though they do change precip amounts here.  Also, don't want those ridges so tall that a trough tucks into the NW under it.  

A good quote from a poster a few years back...we know we are in trouble if we are having to watch MJO phases.  Now, the MJO carries a ton of weight in my book.  What the poster was basically saying is that a good pattern will often override the MJO influence.  

It is tricky i guess. I just don't understand why people think we are in a modoki elniño. If we are, we should have a pretty cold winter, but not everytime. Its all confusing to me.

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7 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

It is tricky i guess. I just don't understand why people think we are in a modoki elniño. If we are, we should have a pretty cold winter, but not everytime. Its all confusing to me.

It has a chance to be sort of a Modoki...the problem is the eastern equatorial Pacific has had some Nina-ish SSTs recently or at least have trended that way.  I haven't looked this week.  I do think that led to our dry and hot September and early October.  Also, Typhoon Tip in the NE subform I think has talked about that the Pacific is anomalously warm over most of the basin...that is actually causing the temperature gradient to be weak.  That means we really want El Nino patterns to have a sharp gradient to cool water which surround them.  Right now, there is just little gradient.  Due to this, the standard analog packages are not working very well.  

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Just glancing through the most recent ensembles....the 6z GEFS has backed-off the mega ridge and has joined the -NAO club that doesn't connect to an eastern ridge.  A -NAO is not a slam dunk for cold BTW.  The reason a lot of us like it is because the storm track gets suppressed and confluence is more favorable for our forum area.  Not sure it will supply enough cold for us to benefit from the potential block...but an interesting look.  IMHO, still a lot of uncertainty for the last week of November.  Some good signs...but not ready to pull the trigger yet on stating that I believe the elusive -NAO is going to pay a visit later this month and into early December.   Looks like the coldest air is setting up in Asia.   Need a mechanism to get it to this side of the planet.

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Agree with those who do not worry too much about the weekly forecasts. They've been awful past week 3 since the dinosaurs were around. Both have badly missed cold snaps. Rest of November probably will get back closer to normal for Thanksgiving. Works for me and Chattanooga's Holiday on the Landing.

December could start out colder than shown. WPO wants to go positive which is a warm signal, but perhaps more consequential for the Plains. Meanwhile the PNA wants to go positive, a cool signal here. Models are clueless and maybe too warm. It's a rare event when I lean colder than NWP, but this might be one of those times.

I'm still mild December, but not as warm as those weeklies.

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Takeaways from modeling this afternoon...-NAO is found on the three major global ensembles beginning mid-week next week.  The JMA has moved to a cooler January and February...but it was wrong all winter last year.  So buyer beware.  If that -NAO sets up shop, it becomes the driver IMHO.  Lots of good doors in terms of winter could open, especially with winter storms.  Some modeling is depicting some weak interaction between the PNA and the potential Greenland block.  Still need to be wary.  The solutions yesterday, though not desirable, are a possibility.  However, I like seeing the Greenland block showing up consistently across the board.  While modeling is tremendously sketchy outside of three weeks...many operational models began hinting at the big highs that produced todays snows...weeks ago.  So, there are some good signs out there in model land that might hint at an enduring block.  HM has been talking about the Aleutian low really making its presence felt - if I am speaking HM language correctly.  He is now alluding to December - early Feb as being cold.  Shocker - that is mid-winter...but that is not as easy of a prediction as one might think given last year's outcome.  Lastly, the MA forum was talking about how the winter Nino temp timeline might be moved up a bit.  I guess that means that the moderation of temps over the next couple of weeks would be the December thaw often seen during Ninos, and that January would be cold versus actually trending colder as the month progresses.  Hopefully, I gave credit where credit is due.  Man, it feels like the middle of winter out there today.  One of my kids said, "It's going to be 65 degrees colder this afternoon than it was to begin October."  I cannot imagine where they would hear such comparisons.  Now, if they start discussing 1954...  Seriously though, these fall athletes have endured record high temps and today...snow.  It has been a really interesting fall in hindsight.  

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EPS just went colder hour 360. Normally that's banter, but check out the buffet line of teleconnections Carvers mentions just above. Issue has been a raging +WPO (warm) vs everything else cold. If a true +PNA develops (with Hawaii ridge) that could be what breaks toward colder here in the Southeast. -NAO too of course; but, some +PNA could fight off the WPO.

Billiard ball meteorology, lol!

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