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Typhoon Tip

July pattern(s) and discussion

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Warm fronts are always further North in Ct, stay aware

It’s easy for those who live in apartments owning nothing but clothes, a clock radio, and some Hustler magazines from the 90’s.... to get all excited for severe. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I guess if heat is exciting 

Extremes are.  But heat and humidity harkens back to my childhood so it triggers pleasant thoughts.   

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s easy for those who live in apartments owning nothing but clothes, a clock radio, and some Hustler magazines from the 90’s.... to get all excited for severe. 

You and I have lived it, paid the expense, worked hard to clean up the mess. Sure its weather excitement until it hits home then not so much. Easy when someone else is responsible 

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12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

BOS through yesterday is +6.3 for July with a mean of 79.6.  We’ll knock that back some after today’s cheap midnight high but then ramp it back up weekend on through the end of the month.  What’s the record for July?

78.0 in 1983 I think?

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Extremes are.  But heat and humidity harkens back to my childhood so it triggers pleasant thoughts.   

Nice, I thoroughly enjoyed the heat wave, having all the kids and grandkids (great too) splashing around, spraying hoses, throwing water ballons getting the dogs soaked was a ball. No one complained about the heat as it was water works here all weekend.  Best part of the day is seeing all the kids crashed out from exhaustion with smiles on their faces. They too will have fond memories of heat.

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8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Solid shot I think!

10 days to go 

today wont help 

Tuesday gonna hurt a lot 

Wednesday- Fri will be below that 78.0 max ave

Sunday-Wed look above that 

I’d say 25% 

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I have my doubts this week is 'coc' in nature for that long... In fact, when the sun returns post this agonizingly slow transition over the next 36 or so hours... It won't really meet the definition of 74/52 ..or whatever is the environmental controls standard. 

(From what I'm observing in the charts + climate + experience )/ 3 = a pop back to low 80s with DPs in the upper 50s as your nadir... Quasi coc at best.  And we go up from there.  Just the way I see it.  Calling that 'coc' is bit of an over-sell.  

But I get it ... I'm being perhaps too literal/rigid with that.  Y'all just mean 'better than this weekend' - to that...of course!  It's not gonna be 96/75 for the foreseeable future... And in fairness to the softer use of the chamber stuff ... I even felt at 93/69 last night a vastly improved comfort driving down 495 and 75 mph with the windows down.  It was already comparative... And that's the key.. Balancing acclimation.  After this weekend, 84/60 may seem cocky but that's technically the threshold of warm and humid.   

I still kind of see Thur + as summer dog day characterized ... More like stagnantly hold up in the mid 80s/creeping DPs starting at 58 and going to the mid 60s over the weekend.   Yup...that may seem like coc compared to Saturday at 3:47 pm 

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Flash flooding is certainly going to be a concern later on given PWATS. Outside of a few localized svr reports I think it's going to be tough to do severe today. Poor mid-level lapse rates and meh instability...weak cap yielding a ton of stuff forming. We'll see a blossoming rain shield with heavy rain/flash flooding with best svr with initial cells which develop or cells on the leading edge. 

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Hopefully we can get a few decent damage swaths today, at least SW NE

Will you be safe in your concrete basement 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will you be safe in your concrete basement 

Mom’s basement is always safe

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Parts of CT with 15 days in July of 90+ so far. Add on another possible stretch late this week. Warmest July on record in the making at select sites?

FYP

July so far is barely making my top 10 since 1985.  Might even drop out after averaging in this week...who knows till it's done.

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Yeah ..there's more interesting aspects going on out ( or "up" ) there actually .. 

The hi res vis imagery ...really casts the allusion that the region is still bathed in warm sector S of the Pike and perhaps even lifting N... Meanwhile, there is a region of clearing now in these areas...at least partial sun. 

The fropa momentum from overnight is feeble. The calm nature of the wind around the region this morning suggests so.  The air mass behind the boundary over said region is not appreciably deep... I am wondering if the sun doesn't mix out this edge work and sort of flop the region back into a SW/ quasi barotropic air mass again.  There is a S/W over the Lakes and that's helping to slow the front and may add to this thinking.. 

This was suggested by the Euro actually a couple days ago. I remember mentioning this sort of idea in Wiz's thread... that Monday was getting interesting.  Boo-ya for the Euro! what's new... 

We'll see... But, if the air mass does partially mix backward we could be left with more conditional instability ... imagining some vestigial SR helicity. 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ..there's more interesting aspects going on out ( or "up" ) there actually .. 

The hi res vis imagery ...really casts the allusion that the region is still bathed in warm sector S of the Pike and perhaps even lifting N... Meanwhile, there is a region of clearing now in these areas...at least partial sun. 

The fropa momentum from overnight is feeble. The calm nature of the wind around the region this morning suggests so.  The air mass behind the boundary over said region is not appreciably deep... I am wondering if the sun doesn't mix out this edge work and sort of flop the region back into a SW/ quasi barotropic air mass again.  There is a S/W over the Lakes and that's helping to slow the front and may add to this thinking.. 

This was suggested by the Euro actually a couple days ago. I remember mentioning this sort of idea in Wiz's thread... that Monday was getting interesting.  Boo-ya for the Euro! what's new... 

We'll see... But, if the air mass does partially mix backward we could be left with more conditional instability ... imagining some vestigial SR helicity. 

I'm actually thinking sort of opposite here. I'm not sure there is much room to drive the warm front any further north than it's current position, although maybe there could be a diurnally driven northward boost. I was looking/hoping for maybe some theta-e ridging or an increase in theta-e advection but this looks minimal thus far. Where the waves seem to develop also lead me to think a northward push will be difficult. 

0-1km winds too are quite weak...which shouldn't completely impact frontal progression but I think the ideas of a weak tornado today are down the tube...especially looking at LCL's...they are quite high...even south of the warm front. 

I haven't looked into this detail outside of soundings but I'm guessing there is a layer of dry air that is trapped somewhere in the llvls (how deep...don't know without looking further) and while sure this could poke some weenie sun rays through but it's hurting moisture/instability/LCL heights. 

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What in the Sam Hell, crop circles in CCtCCT

E284FAC7-3103-4E4F-98EB-0F2C03013562.png

Who needs to go to Area 51...come to CT. 

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56 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

10 days to go 

today wont help 

Tuesday gonna hurt a lot 

Wednesday- Fri will be below that 78.0 max ave

Sunday-Wed look above that 

I’d say 25% 

Today’s high is 86 already thanks to midnight so it won’t hurt.  Tomorrow the big negative opportunity exists 

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Today’s high is 86 already thanks to midnight so it won’t hurt.  Tomorrow the big negative opportunity exists 

*

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Everyone everywhere high on today’s severe threat except Wizzy. Reminds me of every winter storm 

Who is high on today's severe threat? 

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s easy for those who live in apartments owning nothing but clothes, a clock radio, and some Hustler magazines from the 90’s.... to get all excited for severe. 

But Dr Dews is in Mass.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Didn’t some say the other day high records were destroying low records this year?

1D74CC1B-7165-47D0-BB8E-C1A69A82E1C4.png

What's the POR of these stations breaking mins? If a station started in the 1950s or 60s there will be more mins broken. (a site like JFK)

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