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Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats


Quincy
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9 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

We gonna talk about this tomorrow? SPC has a marginal risk of severe storms tomorrow, but I'd argue this requires a slight to enhanced,

        The HRRR almost looks like a borderline MDT risk, with impressive discrete supercells in a very favorable environment, but it's an outlier for now compared to the other CAMs.

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Re: tomorrow. There are some hints of CI from QPF trends on globals. SREF highlights potential too. HRRR is most aggressive. Maybe from overmixing? Is that still a bias with the HRRR? If so that would explain the convective scenario it depicts tomorrow vs the rest of CAMs

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
656 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019  
  
KSC085-220015-  
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190522T0015Z/  
JACKSON-  
656 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR  
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY...  
      
AT 656 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF   
WHITING, MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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OUN's afternoon AFD. It is worth noting they did add a SLGT for their CWA around 9 PM in conjunction with SPC. Their HWO is strongly worded as well. 

"

A very subtle mid level vort max, strong mid level WAA, and weak
divergence aloft near the left exit region of a weak upper jet may
produce enough lift for widely scattered moist convection to
develop late in the day. Given persistent QPF signal within the
described zone, and increasingly unstable conditions expected
during the afternoon/early evening, confidence was high enough to
include low chance PoPs near I-35. However, height rises and very
little low level forcing may limit the overall coverage. If
storms do manage to develop, the environment will be favorable for
supercells and this will include a conditional threat of strong
tornadoes."
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HRRR Sounding from NE OK tomorrow afternoon/early evening. VERY questionable after the Monday turnaround at the last second, but that is showing some potential maybe even of MOD risk caliber. Last I checked, NAM 00z from around the same timeframe wants to keep a stout inversion in place around 850mb severely hampering convection. Guess it's just a waiting game to see what trends are through tomorrow afternoon. My gut is telling me the NAM may be onto something again. 

hrrr_2019052200_025_35.46--95.42.png

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18 minutes ago, Southern stream said:

HRRR Sounding from NE OK tomorrow afternoon/early evening. VERY questionable after the Monday turnaround at the last second, but that is showing some potential maybe even of MOD risk caliber. Last I checked, NAM 00z from around the same timeframe wants to keep a stout inversion in place around 850mb severely hampering convection. Guess it's just a waiting game to see what trends are through tomorrow afternoon. My gut is telling me the NAM may be onto something again. 

hrrr_2019052200_025_35.46--95.42.png

 

 

Looks like the SPC is looking into this scenario.

 

From the SPC

 

 Some hints that a few storms could initiate over the
   Oklahoma vicinity are indicated -- apparently tied to a very weak
   mid-level disturbance moving through the otherwise anticyclonic flow
   -- but this appears very low probability at this time.  Should a
   storm or two initiate however, the background CAPE/shear environment
   would be quite supportive for supercell storms -- and all severe
   hazards.  At this time, will expand the 5% risk across Oklahoma, for
   what still appears to be a highly conditional scenario at best.
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9 minutes ago, KeganR said:

Tomorrow’s environment is incredible.

Data in the morning sounding is going to be extremely telling.

Watch tomorrow pull a May 3! Lol. It would sure fit the theme of our set-ups recently.

Know others have said this too, but it really seems like our high-end outlook days are performing like slight/enhanced, and our sneaky 5%-10% days are playing like moderate/high risks. Today basically played like a moderate in the cold core target in NE Kansas.

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I haven't looked too closely at tomorrow yet, in terms of forcing or other negatievs, but despite rising heights (which did happen on 5/25/16, for the record), virtually all models show convection by early to mid afternoon. This includes global models, CAMs and HREF suite. Given the background environment, you'd probably expect at least an upgrade to SLGT with the upcoming Day 1 outlook. 

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26 minutes ago, KeganR said:

Tomorrow’s environment is incredible.

Data in the morning sounding is going to be extremely telling.

More incredible than Monday’s? I know that didn’t yield what was forecasted but it was talked about several days out

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2 minutes ago, Misstertwister said:

More incredible than Monday’s? I know that didn’t yield what was forecasted but it was talked about several days out

Not to the level of Monday. But you dont have to have a historically high end environment to do big things. It only takes a very small subtle change to affect things on the large scale when it comes to an outbreak, and Monday was a very good example.

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3 minutes ago, Misstertwister said:

More incredible than Monday’s? I know that didn’t yield what was forecasted but it was talked about several days out

As Marsh said today in his Twitter thread, Monday’s environment was the 1% of 1%s. The research on why it busted will be really fun to see play out. 

We won’t know much until the sounding tomorrow morning in Norman, but the environment is primed. Just need some more factors to come together.

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Broyles (and Wendt) jumped from MRGL to ENH with a 10% sig tor delineation from northeastern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas for the new Day 1. I can't say I disagree all that much. The Day 2 also has 10% hatched tor probs, but for areas a bit farther west.

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I know this is anecdotal... but marginal’ish setups like today’s have been the ones to watch very closely the last few years, often producing days like Chapman or DDC or Bennington, among others. Given this line of thinking, (especially with the environmental conditions at hand later this afternoon and evening INVOF of the boundary) I’d expect some (potentially several) tornadic supercells today across NE OK/SE KS/SW MO, some could possibly be intense. 

SPC might upgrade tornado probs to MDT by 20Z, but spatial area may end up being too small to warrant such an upgrade.

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Today is a difficult chase target for a litany of reasons both meteorological and non meteorological. I’m choosing to head for Norman. I don’t want to deal with the flooded/closed roads in NE Oklahoma and SE KS. Once again I think supercells will track along the zone of ascent causing destructive interference and less than friendly chasing. Throw on top of that increasing flash flood threat 00-03z and chaser convergence for SOC bullseye and I’m out. 

 

Grabbing lunch in Norman and watching for anything SW-NW of I35. 

 

 

Tomorkw looks far better. Currently targeting liberal/DDC/AMA. 

 

Largely rinse and repeat Friday - Monday/Tues/Weds 

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1 hour ago, jojo762 said:

I know this is anecdotal... but marginal’ish setups like today’s have been the ones to watch very closely the last few years, often producing days like Chapman or DDC or Bennington, among others. Given this line of thinking, (especially with the environmental conditions at hand later this afternoon and evening INVOF of the boundary) I’d expect some (potentially several) tornadic supercells today across NE OK/SE KS/SW MO, some could possibly be intense. 

SPC might upgrade tornado probs to MDT by 20Z, but spatial area may end up being too small to warrant such an upgrade.

This...on the anniversary of the Joplin EF5 Tornado in 2011

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17 minutes ago, JMT417 said:

This...on the anniversary of the Joplin EF5 Tornado in 2011

Yes, watching this closely. This is awful as we thought we would get a break from the storms today. As someone else mentioned, SE KS is a flooded mess. 

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