high risk Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, StormChazer said: We gonna talk about this tomorrow? SPC has a marginal risk of severe storms tomorrow, but I'd argue this requires a slight to enhanced, The HRRR almost looks like a borderline MDT risk, with impressive discrete supercells in a very favorable environment, but it's an outlier for now compared to the other CAMs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Pretty tight couplet in KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, mob1 said: Pretty tight couplet in KS. Looks like it tracked right over Chapman, they got hit hard in 08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Re: tomorrow. There are some hints of CI from QPF trends on globals. SREF highlights potential too. HRRR is most aggressive. Maybe from overmixing? Is that still a bias with the HRRR? If so that would explain the convective scenario it depicts tomorrow vs the rest of CAMs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, KSWx said: Looks like it tracked right over Chapman, they got hit hard in 08. There was a confirmed tornado near Chapman with that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Three tornado warnings in KS with a confirmed large tornado south of Holton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, mob1 said: Three tornado warnings in KS with a confirmed large tornado south of Holton. Wasn’t expecting this not far from me. Should’ve been chasing. Agh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Check this one out a little earlier in Missouri. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 656 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019 KSC085-220015- /O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190522T0015Z/ JACKSON- 656 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY... AT 656 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF WHITING, MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Maybe the tornado went just east of Whiting? Couldn't get a great look at it on the phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 OUN's afternoon AFD. It is worth noting they did add a SLGT for their CWA around 9 PM in conjunction with SPC. Their HWO is strongly worded as well. " A very subtle mid level vort max, strong mid level WAA, and weak divergence aloft near the left exit region of a weak upper jet may produce enough lift for widely scattered moist convection to develop late in the day. Given persistent QPF signal within the described zone, and increasingly unstable conditions expected during the afternoon/early evening, confidence was high enough to include low chance PoPs near I-35. However, height rises and very little low level forcing may limit the overall coverage. If storms do manage to develop, the environment will be favorable for supercells and this will include a conditional threat of strong tornadoes." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 HRRR Sounding from NE OK tomorrow afternoon/early evening. VERY questionable after the Monday turnaround at the last second, but that is showing some potential maybe even of MOD risk caliber. Last I checked, NAM 00z from around the same timeframe wants to keep a stout inversion in place around 850mb severely hampering convection. Guess it's just a waiting game to see what trends are through tomorrow afternoon. My gut is telling me the NAM may be onto something again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 18 minutes ago, Southern stream said: HRRR Sounding from NE OK tomorrow afternoon/early evening. VERY questionable after the Monday turnaround at the last second, but that is showing some potential maybe even of MOD risk caliber. Last I checked, NAM 00z from around the same timeframe wants to keep a stout inversion in place around 850mb severely hampering convection. Guess it's just a waiting game to see what trends are through tomorrow afternoon. My gut is telling me the NAM may be onto something again. Looks like the SPC is looking into this scenario. From the SPC Some hints that a few storms could initiate over the Oklahoma vicinity are indicated -- apparently tied to a very weak mid-level disturbance moving through the otherwise anticyclonic flow -- but this appears very low probability at this time. Should a storm or two initiate however, the background CAPE/shear environment would be quite supportive for supercell storms -- and all severe hazards. At this time, will expand the 5% risk across Oklahoma, for what still appears to be a highly conditional scenario at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 So being a novice i looked at the NAM 3k CAM and at 18z showed several cells over OKC metro with a PDS Tor sounding. Am i reading that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 26 tornado reports yesterday.... 37 reports today. Seems like the best days are usually surprises more often than not lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 To preface I don’t really know how to read soundings. I only look at that little box although i take that with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeganR Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Tomorrow’s environment is incredible. Data in the morning sounding is going to be extremely telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, KeganR said: Tomorrow’s environment is incredible. Data in the morning sounding is going to be extremely telling. Watch tomorrow pull a May 3! Lol. It would sure fit the theme of our set-ups recently. Know others have said this too, but it really seems like our high-end outlook days are performing like slight/enhanced, and our sneaky 5%-10% days are playing like moderate/high risks. Today basically played like a moderate in the cold core target in NE Kansas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 22, 2019 Author Share Posted May 22, 2019 I haven't looked too closely at tomorrow yet, in terms of forcing or other negatievs, but despite rising heights (which did happen on 5/25/16, for the record), virtually all models show convection by early to mid afternoon. This includes global models, CAMs and HREF suite. Given the background environment, you'd probably expect at least an upgrade to SLGT with the upcoming Day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 26 minutes ago, KeganR said: Tomorrow’s environment is incredible. Data in the morning sounding is going to be extremely telling. More incredible than Monday’s? I know that didn’t yield what was forecasted but it was talked about several days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 We will have a much better picture by midmorning. The storm environment is very interesting to say the least and very much supports all hazards, so long as we get sustained convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Misstertwister said: More incredible than Monday’s? I know that didn’t yield what was forecasted but it was talked about several days out Not to the level of Monday. But you dont have to have a historically high end environment to do big things. It only takes a very small subtle change to affect things on the large scale when it comes to an outbreak, and Monday was a very good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeganR Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Misstertwister said: More incredible than Monday’s? I know that didn’t yield what was forecasted but it was talked about several days out As Marsh said today in his Twitter thread, Monday’s environment was the 1% of 1%s. The research on why it busted will be really fun to see play out. We won’t know much until the sounding tomorrow morning in Norman, but the environment is primed. Just need some more factors to come together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 22, 2019 Author Share Posted May 22, 2019 Broyles (and Wendt) jumped from MRGL to ENH with a 10% sig tor delineation from northeastern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas for the new Day 1. I can't say I disagree all that much. The Day 2 also has 10% hatched tor probs, but for areas a bit farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 I know this is anecdotal... but marginal’ish setups like today’s have been the ones to watch very closely the last few years, often producing days like Chapman or DDC or Bennington, among others. Given this line of thinking, (especially with the environmental conditions at hand later this afternoon and evening INVOF of the boundary) I’d expect some (potentially several) tornadic supercells today across NE OK/SE KS/SW MO, some could possibly be intense. SPC might upgrade tornado probs to MDT by 20Z, but spatial area may end up being too small to warrant such an upgrade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Today is a difficult chase target for a litany of reasons both meteorological and non meteorological. I’m choosing to head for Norman. I don’t want to deal with the flooded/closed roads in NE Oklahoma and SE KS. Once again I think supercells will track along the zone of ascent causing destructive interference and less than friendly chasing. Throw on top of that increasing flash flood threat 00-03z and chaser convergence for SOC bullseye and I’m out. Grabbing lunch in Norman and watching for anything SW-NW of I35. Tomorkw looks far better. Currently targeting liberal/DDC/AMA. Largely rinse and repeat Friday - Monday/Tues/Weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 1 hour ago, jojo762 said: I know this is anecdotal... but marginal’ish setups like today’s have been the ones to watch very closely the last few years, often producing days like Chapman or DDC or Bennington, among others. Given this line of thinking, (especially with the environmental conditions at hand later this afternoon and evening INVOF of the boundary) I’d expect some (potentially several) tornadic supercells today across NE OK/SE KS/SW MO, some could possibly be intense. SPC might upgrade tornado probs to MDT by 20Z, but spatial area may end up being too small to warrant such an upgrade. This...on the anniversary of the Joplin EF5 Tornado in 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 17 minutes ago, JMT417 said: This...on the anniversary of the Joplin EF5 Tornado in 2011 Yes, watching this closely. This is awful as we thought we would get a break from the storms today. As someone else mentioned, SE KS is a flooded mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Most of the short range models are biting on this now. Definitely feels like one of those days where a large tornado could drop somewhere, and on a day with ZERO hype leading up to it, which means some people are going to be caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 12Z CAMs, including all the WRFs depict what could be a potentially dangerous day across the ENH risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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